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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

People on another forum (not weather) are talking about Piers Thingy's forecast, saying a major storm and snow for new years day. Any truth in that?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

just seen your newest post  bus i understand that one!!!  woop woop Posted Image

 

don't worry you will be amazed how quick you pick things up and by the end of winter you will be catching up with what everything means

 

 

People on another forum (not weather) are talking about Piers Thingy's forecast, saying a major storm and snow for new years day. Any truth in that?

 

there will be windy weather about but looks like the worst of the wind is to be down south and any snow around will just be over higher ground for the majority of us it will just be rain if anything falls from the sky.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

well the GFS 12z took a step in the right direction today and was pretty good up till 192hr where it went wrong from there but it has thrown in the ridge in the atlantic seen in the charts below which is in time with my thoughts for the first push of heights to our north but unfortunately due to the GFS place energy from the PV over northern Greenland this wasn't able to stick this time round but watch for this in future should the models go down the route I have been thinking. 

 

 

 

 

Exactly! I was pleased to see that attempt at ridging in the Atlantic and it wasn't there on yesterday's runs (certainly not as robust as it was today)   OK it failed on this attempt but it was interesting. Some on the MOD (not all) will not be happy unless they see 6' of snow programmed for their front doorstep by the weekend!  This is an evolving situation, it is going to take time. In my opinion tho' things are moving in the right direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Doesn't look like the rain is too far away from us. Start of another rough week possibly

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Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

Amber warning now out for the South West (why me) and this does not bold well for the still saturated ground and full rivers.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Exactly! I was pleased to see that attempt at ridging in the Atlantic and it wasn't there on yesterday's runs (certainly not as robust as it was today)   OK it failed on this attempt but it was interesting. Some on the MOD (not all) will not be happy unless they see 6' of snow programmed for their front doorstep by the weekend!  This is an evolving situation, it is going to take time. In my opinion tho' things are moving in the right direction.

 

I cant really say anything about the people not being happy unless there is lots of snow in the forecast as I kind of had my wee moment at the start of winter Posted Image

 

its always the case in pattern changes especially when we flip to a cold pattern the models go haywire till they eventually sort out what they picked up in the first place.

 

its like they see something and say ' no no no that's not right get lost' then they fight against it till they eventually get round to the realisation the pattern is the correct one. 

 

I'm liking the 500hpa realtime modelling as this is showing the arctic region already filling with high pressure so heights to the north somewhere looks a good shot and we just have to wait and see if it falls in the right place for us.

 

post-18233-0-86498100-1388342893_thumb.g

 

also heights filling the arctic at 200 hpa

 

post-18233-0-84966500-1388343059_thumb.g

 

heres the links for anyone who is reading who may not know where to find this

 

500hpa  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

 

200hpa  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted · Hidden by Buriedundersnow, December 29, 2013 - think i got it a bit wrong and didnt pick up right what he was saying
Hidden by Buriedundersnow, December 29, 2013 - think i got it a bit wrong and didnt pick up right what he was saying

seems JOE B thinks there is something wrong in the models just now as well he is thinking that 27th on the left was right which is what the ECM has been pointing towards and on the right is today for same date and he thinks its wrong so this goes to show what I was saying above that the models have gone a little mental trying to sort out if the pattern is correct

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 1h

http://Weatherbell.com  DID NOT BUY GFS ENSEMBLES from Friday for what is now day 9. Look at Ensemble change! pic.twitter.com/YGOfQjYoET

 

post-18233-0-15549700-1388344555_thumb.p

 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Interesting T168,216,240 on the ECM with the Atlantic ridging once again trying to make inroads. Plenty to keep model watching interesting until there is a better handle on the pattern going forward. Patience required.

 

What I would call a mini ramp from John Holmes :  (might have been at the sherry!)Posted Image Interesting thoughts though......

 

Sorry folks...it won't let me pick up the link (PDF) but have a scoot over to the MOD and read for yourselves.

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

see with all these sting jets and bombing lows we seem to be seeing these days they should bring out weather stations with there usual pressure falling steady and falling rapidly with another added level.

 

Posted Image F%*KING HELL HIDE NOW!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

 

 

Sorry folks...it won't let me pick up the link (PDF) but have a scoot over to the MOD and read for yourselves.

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_id=200735

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Just back from a wee sojourn to a rather windy & wet Cumbria; quite a pleasant drive back north today past chez Ed, Chegs, Lozzo etc.* Was still frosty in Perthshire early afternoon.  We avoided going out in Friday's gale as there were bits of trees getting blown down the street...Posted ImagePosted Image The Drumochter hills are looking nice and wintry just now although there weren't that many cars parked in the usual places for the walking - maybe a bit breezy up top still.

 

Eeeh, where's the low level snow got to? Is JH suggesting something happening next month or has he been on the sherry?

 

*BUS, we dodged Falkirk, no offence matePosted Image

Edited by Hairy Celt
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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Raining here now and temps have risen almost 3.C since 7pm. Now 4.5 C. The ice on the pavements has now melted.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

 

*BUS, we dodged Falkirk, no offence matePosted Image

 

 

no offence taken if I had the choice I would dodge Falkirk as well Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

looks like we are getting there with the pattern there looks to be ridging in the ECM mean and anomalies charts

 

post-18233-0-24305300-1388354486_thumb.gpost-18233-0-29387600-1388354487_thumb.gpost-18233-0-02603100-1388354502_thumb.gpost-18233-0-83413900-1388354501_thumb.gpost-18233-0-63665600-1388354485_thumb.g

 

the trough over us on the anomalies chart is still dropping south as well

 

its not on the GEFS but don't care I would take it on the ECM mean over the GEFS any day.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Duff moisture code? To be fair there are heaps of acronyms knocking about just now and the original post contained a 'stramash' of them.

 

SEPA warning as of 20:00 re the drookit.

 

http://www.sepa.org.uk/about_us/news/2013/flooding_update_-_2000.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

For those no going oot on Hogmanay, stumbled across this: http://www.youtube.com/user/remotealert?feature=watch

 

Probably good fun to watch folks spewin' on the cobbles Posted Image

 

EDIT - play any camera and they are live noo, even if the date says it's no...

Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

hows that for agreement from the ECM

 

post-18233-0-59516100-1388359059_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)
  • Location: Clarkston, Glasgow (75m asl)

I can confirm via the 'Cat Flap Model' that it pishin down outside. The cat 'Beaker' is boxing his cat flap like Rocky Balboa punches a hanging boxing speed ball.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

bluearmy, on 29 Dec 2013 - 23:00, said:

Any word on the 30 day 'cold possibility' Ian? Is it glosea 4 or potential cold clusters at day 15?

The latter I believe. Nothing to scare the horses re cold (in strictest sense) until at least mid-Jan, reckon UKMO, but frankly the fixation for now is understandably on rainfall & (to some degree) wind issues for the forseeable. High confidence on the unsettled westerly regime through early to (at least) mid-Jan, but with Pm or rPm phases causing the cooling trend seen in EC ENS... snow/heavy snow for Scotland at times but Exeter stress range of synoptic outcomes into further reaches of trend period, thus confidence declining later into Jan. So, all in keeping with current output available on public websites.

Copied over from the MOD ... From Ian Ferguson....perhaps a bit of interest for us at last

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