Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[swfc]

Very good ecm so far!!maybe even better than the ukmo in regards to the scandi high!!low pressure going south east aswell.

The low wont go south east.my guess would be very little change from this morning.Very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

FI looks like the start of 1947! Yet again it does not want to drop this hint of potentially extreme cold synoptics.

[Captain Shortwave]

A bit better from the ECM, more energy going south east and heights over Northern Scandinavia seem to be sticking around as opposed to sinking south east.

[Tim Bland]

The low wont go south east]

Looks like it slips south East between 144 + 168hrs to me! Edited December 27, 2013 by Tim Bland

[That ECM]

The low wont go south east.my guess would be very little change from this morning.Very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4250/ECH1-168_sid5.GIF ???

[shaky]

Yup the low has elongated and is slippig south east due to that lovely scandi high!!

[swfc]

The low wont go south east.my guess would be very little change from this morning.Very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard 

your post was on the 120hr chart

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

PDO in negative phase overall, but does have less and deeper negative phases.......it seems since early Dec where it was less so, we are now digging into deeper negative....and this means to me, Jetstream to dig south in our neck of the woods......timing looks good 

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 27, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The Northern Ramper]

The low wont go south east.my guess would be very little change from this morning.Very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard

Self moderated Edited December 27, 2013 by Ramp

[karyo]

The heights to the northeast are too far away and the Atlantic continues to rule!

We also have the the Azores High to contend with!.

 

Karyo

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM pretty much wants to make the Polar vortex explode into life after a brief lull. Any block to the north east wouldn't survive that. It's out of kilter with the other models which continue to weaken the tropospheric vortex, which I guess is something.

[Panayiotis]

Quite a weak PV at 216hrs on the ECM!

Edited December 27, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

Lets remember that the potential cold isnt likely to happen within the current timeframe of the ECM op? We are still looking at day 10+, but we can use the Op to see if this pattern change is taking effect however with the ops changing constantly, why not stick with the more consistent ENS, more especially ECM.

Edited December 27, 2013 by bradythemole

[swfc]

The ecm isnt buying into any easterly and the disrupting low is way to east combined with the fact the rise in pressure is way to far east.That said the 216 hr chart is better and flattening the low and squeezing it.Imo opinion look to the north,noth west for any substantial cooling be it in fi,scuppered by a trigger low at 240hrs

Edited December 27, 2013 by swfc

[Mucka]

The ECM pretty much wants to make the Polar vortex explode into life after a brief lull. Any block to the north east wouldn't survive that. It's out of kilter with the other models which continue to weaken the tropospheric vortex, which I guess is something.

 

It looks a little over zealous to me from 168 with that explosive cyclogenesis so far North and the Azores high pouncing like big cat with its prey in range.

Fi mark 120h for me as far as the ridge an how the Atlantic lows interact with it never mind the detail for the UK as we head into the second week of Jan.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

t240 from ECM, probably cold enough for some snow on higher ground in the north but less cold in the south west

 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF showing much more seasonal temps into January with the Jet digging South , although a different evolution to the GFS.. Best runs so far this Winter and nice to get some Mild Stormy weather out the way this December.. 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Purga]

Oh dear the zonal train fires up at 240hrs ECM 12z

 

 

ENS show the GFS 12z FI was a wild outlier

 

 

BUMP!

[Joe Levy]

I find it interesting how many different interpretations people can gauge from this one chart. For some it is a cause for optimism, for others pessimism. Personally, the only word I am inclined to use is 'potential'.

[Mucka]

Oh dear the zonal train fires up at 240hrs ECM 12z

 

 

ENS show the GFS 12z FI was a wild outlier

 

 

BUMP!

 

That ECM 240h chart does not show a return to average zonal conditions Purga.

Trough digging South through the UK with cold uppers behind while ridge pushes over the top, probably through Iceland with a continuation of an amplified pattern likely thereafter.

Not that I should be encouraging analysis of day 10 charts.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Mucka

[tight isobar]

The 12z gfs may have overhyped things somewhat.However looking at overall out fruition possibility, and more so trending,there's ample room for optimism.it may well be the age old case of model come together,

[Captain Shortwave]

It looks a little over zealous to me from 168 with that explosive cyclogenesis so far North and the Azores high pouncing like big cat with its prey in range.

Fi mark 120h for me as far as the ridge an how the Atlantic lows interact with it never mind the detail for the UK as we head into the second week of Jan.

Very true and that's how I feel too. Though I did wish that I could have got off the fence after the ECM, but alas 

The path to cold seems like an arduous journey. Someone could make trilogy of three hour films out of this.......

Edited December 27, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Guess what? another fi ECM op out of kilter with the x model ens mean theme. No ens mean at day 10 is interested in high height anomolys at day 10 to our south. I'd scrap it after day 7.

[Mucka]

Very true and that's how I feel too. Though I did wish that I could have got off the fence after the ECM, but alas 

The path to cold seems like an arduous journey. Someone could make trilogy of three hour films out of this.......

 

Ha ha, definitely a bit of a saga but maybe it will turn out like a fairytale with perhaps the PV playing the wicked witch, HLB the dashing Prince and of course Snow White the heroine in need of saving. 

You can all write your own allegories regarding the part of the seven dwarfs.      

[weather eater]

I find it interesting how many different interpretations people can gauge from this one chart. For some it is a cause for optimism, for others pessimism. Personally, the only word I am inclined to use is 'potential'.

Sound advice, personally I've never understood the impulse to view model output within a concept of optimism or pessimism or from a stand point of trying to find cold or mild, better to use a pragmatic approach, if it can go wrong there’s a strong possibility that it will and no matter how solid a trend appears to be, they can and do change. In terms of the 12s I'm of the same view as this morning, yes the GFS throws up some eye candy but I wouldn’t mind a tenner for every time I've seen that, the ECM pretty much as my thoughts this morning, a pattern change in so much as more in the way of Polar maritime so cooler conditions, wintery at times over Scotland and northern hills, potential yes, major pattern change not much of a signal as yet.

Edited December 27, 2013 by weather eater