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Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

Coast

By Coast
in Storms & Severe Weather

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

Today's storm still on SW winds into the mid sixties so we'll notice. Tomorrow evening for Northern England Midlands and North Wales a even windier period with winds into the 70's look set to sweep across these areas.

That's what I thought Pit but the BBC forecast this morning seems to be having non of it with the only mention of strong winds for more southern areas.They do seem worried about Monday though.
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

 maybe we could have some a bit further South next Santa, oh please.

 

You might get your wish next week (well maybe nearer the coast):

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

ESTOFEX for today:

 

post-6667-0-01916900-1387524515_thumb.pn

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 20 Dec 2013 06:00 to Sat 21 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 19 Dec 2013 23:22
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK
A level 1 and level 2 were issued for Ireland, parts of the UK and the North Sea for severe convective wind gusts.
 
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
 
A series of progressive troughs and ridges travels eastward within a strong frontal zone over the Northern half of Europe. Two short-wave troughs and their attendant frontal systems move from the Baltic Sea into Russia and from the North Sea and France to the Baltic States and Belarus, respectively. Beneath the base of the second trough, cold upper levels and QG lift on the cyclonic side of the jet stream will allow scattered thundery showers over parts of the Norwegian and North Sea in the 06 to 12z time frame. Due to limited instability and temporarily weak vertical wind shear, severe weather is not expected.
 
Further West, the warm sector of an outstanding Atlantic cyclone will overspread the British Isles with plentiful rain and 850 hPa winds up to 40 m/s. Scattered to widespread severe wind gusts are expected in the warm sector, where the pressure gradient is strongest, as well as along and behind the cold front, which will swiftly cross Ireland and Scotland after 18 UTC before it will gradually decelerate over England and the North Sea. It will mark the transition from rain to showers and isolated thunderstorms, which can easily mix down 850 hPa winds which are still between 25 and 30 m/s in the postfrontal air mass. A level 1 was drawn for those areas where an involvement of deep convection in the gust generation is expected. The Scottish West coast and the Hebrides were upgraded to a level 2, since they are favourably placed in the left exit region of a very strong jet streak. Hence deeper and more widespread convection, possibly in form of an organized line along the cold front, with an even higher risk of severe wind gusts is anticipated.
 
Additional subordinate risks are localized flooding (the convective contribution to the high rainfall totals will be small, though) and a brief tornado along the cold front, which is preceded by a tongue of very moist air (2m dewpoints up to 10°C) and strong directional wind shear.

 

Edited by Coast
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Thermohaline Conveyor Apprentice

Thermohaline Conveyor

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Any thoughts on the Saturday PM wave?  MO don't appear to be picking up on the potential of cylcogenisis with this feature.  Looking at the Bracknell manually produced FAX, I can see the presence of a trough, but that's about it.

 

On an additional aside, NAE18Z and 00Z has picked up on this frontal wave for Sat 15:00>, has to be said the 00Z was better developed with a cyclonic circulation. 

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

GFS for tomorrow, another worrying sight:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Pretty quiet round here at the moment just gusting low 30's still time though.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Interesting no warnings tonight as far as the wind is concerned from the met office.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Finally arrived here averaging 30 mph and  gusting to 51mph. Not raining though....

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited) · Hidden by ZONE 51, December 21, 2013 - merged with another post. can delete.
Hidden by ZONE 51, December 21, 2013 - merged with another post. can delete.

Posted Image

Looks amazing! this is the back edge cold plunge of the big storm for Mon/Tue indicated on GFS

(these are not surface temps but Thickness 500/1000hpa)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

This was the chart indicating a Jet streak over N-Ireland / Scotland Friday on GFS run 12z(first chart)

Posted Image

This is heading in for Monday....

Posted Image

Power Jet stream to hit next week. be prepared for this big storm and it's firing into S-UK too

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Looks amazing! and here on chart above this is the back edge cold plunge of the big storm for Mon/Tue indicated on GFS

(these are not surface temps but Thickness 500/1000hpa)

Data GFS 18z

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Hit 55mph here last night. sounded good in bed.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Todays feature. Met office reckon 50 to 60 GFS show much less away from the South west. A case of waiting too see want happens. Same for the rainfall.

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Chris W Contributor

Chris W

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
Posted (edited)

A very active cold front coming through Sunderland today, clouds are speeding along and bringing some very heavy rain/hail showers and strong gusts - one of the downpours brought some of the largest hail I have seen.  It brings into light how bad Monday and Tuesday could be, but that is for the other thread.

Edited by Chris W
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Today's feature which was too bring a lot of wind and rain is now on the radar. XCweather shows no strong winds associated with though at the moment. Looks like rain will be the main factor.

Edited by The PIT
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Today's feature which was too bring a lot of wind and rain is now on the radar. XCweather shows no strong winds associated with though at the moment. Looks like rain will be the main factor.

 

Yep, Can see a few sferics appearing from it too.

Hold your hats. Could be some lovely looking skies from that.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Yep, Can see a few sferics appearing from it too.

Hold your hats. Could be some lovely looking skies from that.

Just got to wait and see if it survives it's journey here.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Might as well close this thread as many are posting todays events in the thread for tomorrow.

Edited by The PIT
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