Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[lorenzo]

Strongest part of jet perfectly positioned to engineer that low.

[radiohead]

The prospect of a Christmas Day storm is there again on the 18Z GFS.

 

[Mokidugway]

Hold on to your christmas tree , we could be in for a rough ride !!!!........ :)

[laserguy]

Hold on to your christmas tree , we could be in for a rough ride !!!!........

 

With a bit of luck and a prevailing wind (heh) it'll blow those pesky carol singers away,too.

[Snowshine]

I am actually liking this sudden change in weather.

We were stuck under a VERY slow moving High Pressure system for around 3 weeks here in the South, but a weak Low Pressure system pushed in and bought little wind and rain to the UK.

Unfortunately another slow moving High Pressure system pushed into the UK, it bought cool and dry weather (BORING), and did not much fog to my area either, although fairly Severe fog hit London just before the High backed off.

Yesterday a fairly strong storm bought Severe Gales to the North, and Gusty winds to the South. Today's storm was not as widespread, or as strong as yesterday's storm, but still bought Gales to Scotland.

It is likely that Monday will be quieter, but there will be some rain in the South, and snow showers in Scotland. Tuesday looks much quieter in the UK, possibly some patchy rain.

Storm 1: Wednesday will possibly start off bringing Severe Gales and Heavy Rain to North West Scotland, which is under attack by Low pressure systems quite often at the moment, but then later on Wednesday England will become affected by Gales and Heavy Rain, especially in the West. Thursday seems to show that Scotland will be affected once again by Severe Gales.

Storm 2: Although this system will likely be less stronger than some of the previous Low pressure systems, it looks like it will bring Gales / Stormy Gusts across the whole of England with gusts in excess of 60mph in a majority of England. It will also likely bring Heavy (some Very Heavy) Rain.

Monday could potentially be stormy but little can be said as it is so far off.

[derryweather]

I would... fat chance, some other buggers will get all the fun,as per.

 

me  based here in Derry, Northern Ireland.  30 mins from Malin Head

 

I've been keeping an eye on this storm now for the last few days.  Although I'm an amateur, going from the charts this is going to cause widespread disruption to the North of Ireland!!

[Snow and storms]

As it stand at the moment I believe the Christmas eve/day storm is looking the most dangerous even though it is the furthest out.

Don't get me wrong they are all potent beasties but that one in particular has had both the cold and warm sectors dragged closer to the UK and together

by the previous lows. The huge block of cold shifting over Greenland is in a prime position to create a monster and if the track stays as it is which it probably won't (i hope)

the UK is going to get hit right down the middle in the most populated areas. Central England, London and anywhere south of that will get a total pasting along with some parts

slightly further north east as the storm tracks rapidly north east exiting the jet.

[ZONE 51]

Great posts. and after the the storms be prepared for a Siberian mega blast... although taking time to set up.

(enough confidence in it to mention it now)

 

Amazing amount of action swinging in from the Atlantic, quite a concern really, only movies have so many big storms following each other!!!!

Edited December 16, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

Major downgrade for Friday winds still up to the mid sixties but not so widespread and more tied in with the frontal systems. The duration has got smaller as well. Wednesday on the other hand looking more lively now. Low pressure seems further south so some very nasty weather for Northern Ireland and later South Western Scotland and possibly the far north of England as well. Elsewhere a band of winds in to the 60's will cross the country as the front moves west to east.

However as this morning shows local effects can produce unexpected windy spells. Winds gusting to 45 mph here

[Beaufort12]

84mp/h  Sustained winds off the Irish coast Wednesday evening according to the 0Z GFS

 

[Sainsbo]

 

 

Not a huge change from the GFs and ECM, maybe slightly weaker, but fluxuating in the track and intensity are to be expected at this range really.

[Coast]

NI, Scotland and NE England look like taking the brunt of it on the latest GFS lightning Wizard output:

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

UK weather: Forecasters warn of 80mph wind and rain to batter the country before arrival of ‘Storm Emily’

 

Forecasters have warned of severe weather that will continue to batter Scotland today, with flood alerts in place and predictions of winds up to 80mph.

 

The Met Office said the northwest should be braced for difficult conditions over the course of the afternoon, with “very strong winds†resulting in significant travel disruption. A severe weather warning was also in place for parts of southern England, with heavy rain expected later today and forecast to get worse going into Monday. “The public should be aware that this may cause some localised floodingâ€, the warning said.

 

Yesterday winds on higher ground reportedly reached speeds of up to 111mph, at Tomintoul in the Cairngorms National Park. A number of bridges were closed off to taller vehicles and ferry services were cancelled. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency added to the Met Office’s wind forecasts with its own flood alerts, with north and west coastal areas and parts of Tayside most likely to be affected. And this weekend’s severe winds and rain came as a precursor to a much larger storm, forecast to hit Britain on Thursday.

 

Weather Channel meteorologist Leon Brown said there was a high risk of gales across Wales and the south. He said that if the storm arrives on 19 December, as predicted, it will be named Storm Emily after Emily Brontë, the author who died on that date 165 years ago. The Met Office already has a severe weather warning scheduled for the storm, in force from 12.05am on Thursday. It said: “Given the potential for a significant winter storm the public should continue to monitor the Met Office website for updates to this warning.â€

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-forecasters-warn-of-80mph-wind-and-rain-to-batter-the-country-before-arrival-of-storm-emily-9006031.html

[Coast]

NW Extra NMM latest run has a great swathe of the country in for some quite large gusts Thursday into Friday:

 

[Coast]

Blimey, Wednesday is a front frenzy!

 

[johnholmes]

Blimey, Wednesday is a front frenzy!

 

 

 

imagine hand drawing this when it is the actual chart, the machine will do it for the senior man but he will also, certainly he used to, do it manually. One ends up covered in bits of rubber and the floor beneath the chart desk is covered in rubbed out bits-fun really and what all forecasters actually love doing. That is taking a pristine plotted chart, plotted in red and blue/black, be it human or machine plotted and drawing it up, centres fronts etc, using sat and machine data to help. I envy that bit.

[Nick L]

imagine hand drawing this when it is the actual chart, the machine will do it for the senior man but he will also, certainly he used to, do it manually. One ends up covered in bits of rubber and the floor beneath the chart desk is covered in rubbed out bits-fun really and what all forecasters actually love doing. That is taking a pristine plotted chart, plotted in red and blue/black, be it human or machine plotted and drawing it up, centres fronts etc, using sat and machine data to help. I envy that bit.

 

I remember drawing these charts by hand in our first year. Even though the case studies were simpler than that, it was still rather frustrating! Lost many rubbers in the process...

[Liam J]

Some real nasty looking charts on the ensemble members for Wed/Thur, some even producing sub 940mb centres!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=66

[Summer Sun]

Early warnings for strong winds and heavy rain issued for Wednesday and Thursday

 

Issued at: 1050 on Mon 16 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 0900 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 2359 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Rain will become persistent and heavy at times during Wednesday with the heaviest rainfall expected to be across Southwest Scotland, Tayside and Lochaber. In addition, southerly winds will increase to gale force with severe gales developing in coastal areas and higher ground inland. The public should be aware of difficult travel conditions with possible disruption.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A developing depression in the Atlantic is expected to drive active fronts eastwards across Scotland on Wednesday. Over 40mm rainfall is likely quite widely across the yellow area, with 60-80mm possible across some upland areas.

 

Issued at: 1055 on Mon 16 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 2105 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 1200 on Thu 19 Dec 2013

 

Severe gale force winds are likely to affect parts of Northern Ireland, central and northern Scotland on Wednesday night and early on Thursday; gusts may exceed 80 mph locally. The wind will lead to large waves with some coastal over-topping possible. In addition, persistent heavy rain will quickly clear from Scotland leaving squally wintry showers. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from this combination of weather events. This is an update to the Alert to bring the start time forward into Wednesday evening, by which point the strong winds may already be affecting Northern Ireland.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will pass close to the NW of Scotland during Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty about the depth and track of this low, but the high gusts, in combination with heavy rain and some coastal flooding, have potential to bring disruption. In the wake of the main storm (beyond the period of this warning), a regime of wintry showers will bring an increased risk of hill snowfall and icy roads. Given the potential for a significant winter storm the public should continue to monitor the Met Office website for updates to this warning.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387324800&regionName=uk

[Coast]

The SW and SE are also in for some of the action on Met O latest:

 

 

59mph gusts on the IOW late Wednesday afternoon?

[Coast]

A quick gander at some of the other sources for this weeks weather and UKMO have the low doing a handbrake turn straight into Scotland, sending ripples further down:

 

 

 

Then like a bad crash in limited visibility, the second low ploughs in behind the first:

 

 

 

ECMWF has that Wednesday low down to 958 hPa off Iceland:

 

 

 

Then another bite on Friday: 

 

 

Merging on Saturday:

 

Edited December 16, 2013 by Coast

[Bobby]

GFS showing 90mph gusts across parts of Ireland, 70-80mph widely across NW Britain. ECM has slightly deeper low with hurricane force winds potentially across the coasts in the NW.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2013 by Bobby

[SteveCoops]

So the Meteociel.fr GFS charts are in MPH, knots or what?

[Liam J]

Well this ECM chart would certainly ruin a few Christmas celebrations for many people! Some cold turkeys sitting around with no electric... Reminds me of boxing day 1998 

 

 

It's been a while since the outlook has been so disturbed with many potential severe wind events. Interesting times!! 

Edited December 16, 2013 by Liam J

[radiohead]

12Z GME hammers northwest Scotland at T66. Sub-935mb with isobars crushed tight.