Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah, but the point is.....it's not going to happen

 

'One for the bins I hope!'

 

Why hope it's for the bin? If you want sustained blocking then the 12z GFS is the sort of run you WANT to verify surely?

Edited December 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[IDO]

I can think of a few words to describe things if the ukmo 12z verifies...expletive deletive

Yes in 24 hours its gone from this: To this:

Its a poor show. At least the GFS has been consistent in playing down this "northerly". Not saying its right but when I saw this mornings ECM, pushing everything east by 200 miles it was deja vu all over again.

[Frosty.]

Did anyone order the hairdryer treatment on the Gfs 12z in low res? even the anticyclonic spell beyond the cold snap vanishes in a puff of smoke on the 12z op run, turning mild, windy and unsettled.

[shotski]

Yeah, but the point is.....it's not going to happen

 

What about 2010 ? the uppers into that area must have been similar.

[cyclonic happiness]

'One for the bins I hope!'

 

Why hope it's for the bin? If you want sustained blocking then the 12z GFS is the sort of run you WANT to verify surely?

if it did, I'd be happy, but there's no point in looking at that end, when this end is all over the shop, if you see what I mean :-D

 

It would be great for a severe spell, but I can't even tell which direction the wind will be in four days time :-p

[cyclonic happiness]

What about 2010 ? the uppers into that area must have been similar.

Well, let's just hope it's a new trend coming to light or something? There does seem to be hints of scandi' or Arctic highs on the past few runs.

[bradymk]

The back end of the 12z send plus 0'c 850s over Greenland and Northern Canada, that means they'd get freezing rain, but RAIN in Greenland in December??!! wtf?  One for the bins I hope!

Or it would just be dry?

[shotski]

Well, let's just hope it's a new trend coming to light or something? There does seem to be hints of scandi' or Arctic highs on the past few runs.

 

Yeh but no real signs on the anomaly charts as yet, or have I missed this ?

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst the last two GFS 12z have seemingly gone off on one. Let us not forget about the near-term, irrespective of which model you choose to follow.

 

• Monday - largely dry and slightly milder than normal, generally cloudy.
• Tuesday - a cold front bringing a band of rain Southwards across the UK.
• Wednesday - a colder day for all, Temps not too far off average in the South of the UK, colder than average up North of the UK. A showery day?
• Thursday - Potentially the coldest day of the spell, it will feel BITTER everywhere due to the potent Northerly flow straight from the Arctic.
• Friday (t+120 hours) - Still has the potential for a decent depth of cold anywhere within the UK, t850s ranging from -4 uppers to nearer -14 uppers in the far North. Plenty of precipitation, due to disturbances in the flow, slowly retreating Eastwards and slightly higher uppers trickle in from the West.

 

Next weekend - best check your seaweed, or perhaps have a go at reading your tealeaves.

 

A good start to meteorological winter in my opinion and by Tuesday/Wednesday we will know if the snap is to be a 36 hour affair or of a much longer duration.

Edited December 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep the 144 chart is a very nice chart going forward. If this N'ly comes to nothing, we may be left chasing an E'ly.

I just hope it happens. I get the feeling that Gavin has taken control of the weather and every single possible scenario gets reduced down to high pressure near the UK!!! 

[johnholmes]

Yeh but no real signs on the anomaly charts as yet, or have I missed this ?

 

see my post this morning

[bradymk]

How can these two be so different at 84 hours? GFS and NAM

[Jason M]

Ensembles rolling out and some big differences even at day 4. I'd be very reluctant to make any sort of call tonight as the models are really struggling in the mid term.

[SW Saltire]

A dissapointing start to the 12z so far. From a larger scale point of view the UKMO has supported its 00z run and does not side with the GFS. It is a least better to see this eastward shift now when there are many more runs to come in which we could see a shift westwards. Of course this run by UKMO may be a rogue run so to speak. Maybe Ian F can be very generous in suggesting where the run sits in its ensembles....

All eyes will be on the ECM for sure, however, this northerly seems like the starter at best, as long as the Scandi high resulting in a subsequent easterly trend continues to grow then there is no need for despair on only the first day of winter

Edited December 1, 2013 by SW Saltire

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble is rolling out now

 

 

Looks like the northerly will still happen but it could be shorter lived than previously thought

Edited December 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Jason M]

By days 5 and 6 the ensembles show some pretty jaw dropping charts tonight. There are a few that have us in sourtherlies by day 5! There are quite a few big northerlies in there though and five or six are showing heights developing over Greenland. Very surprised to see this so early in the suite.

The main conclusion is that we have massive uncertainty at days 5 and 6. The fat lady is struggling to decide which tune to sing tonight.

Ignore the detail tonight IMHO.

Jason

[Frosty.]

It feels like someone just popped a Balloon in here, could this be a ukmo wobble?

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GEFS look like a suite in transition to me.....and not to a zonal set up.....

[Gavin Hannah]

By days 5 and 6 the ensembles show some pretty jaw dropping charts tonight. There are a few that have us in sourtherlies by day 5! There are quite a few big northerlies in there though and five or six are showing heights developing over Greenland. Very surprised to see this so early in the suite.The main conclusion is that we have massive uncertainty at days 5 and 6. The fat lady is struggling to decide which tune to sing tonight.Ignore the detail tonight IMHO.Jason

 

 

The Fat Lady is what you might term... Warbling like a harpooned walrus... tonight then lol. 

 

 

It feels like someone just popped a Balloon in here, could this be a ukmo wobble?

 

That's still going to be fairly cool / cold.

Edited December 1, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Bristawl Si]

It feels like someone just popped a Balloon in here, could this be a ukmo wobble?

The one consistency over the last few days has been the Meto always calling it a short cold snap.Whether that proves to be correct we'll only actually know in a week to 10 days time.

[Summer Sun]

GEM is lining up its northerly

 

The one consistency over the last few days has been the Meto always calling it a short cold snap.
Whether that proves to be correct we'll only actually know in a week to 10 days time.

 

According to Essex weather on twitter last night MOGREPS had it down to 1 day

[Frosty.]

The one consistency over the last few days has been the Meto always calling it a short cold snap.Whether that proves to be correct we'll only actually know in a week to 10 days time.

If the ukmo 12z verifies it won't register on the blipometer

[SW Saltire]

GFS ensemble is rolling out now

Looks like the northerly will still happen but it could be shorter lived than previously thought

I think we should really (we of course won't!) wait until upstream developments

are understood as this will determine the extent of our northerly. I mean, you could

have 10,000 GFS ensembles but if they are all fed a low that we later find out does not take that path in the US then they will all be incorrect so their change in longevity or intensity of said northerly is rather irrelevant.

It is rather concerning that Ian F said that the MetO went with a GFS/GEM blend, from a cold pov let's hope that changes!

Btw this is in no way having a go at your post summer sun as you are just the messenger

Edited December 1, 2013 by SW Saltire

[Purga]

GFS 12z progressive and mild as usual in FI & positively will not let an easterly develop come hell or high water!

Edited December 1, 2013 by Purga

[Bristawl Si]

If the ukmo 12z verifies it won't register on the blipometer

Yes...at this rate i'll be putting out the 'empties' at 11 o'clock Thurs night in 'brass monkey' temps, and getting up 10 hours later wearing a t-shirt and shorts! Lol!