Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[terrier]

If only!!!!!

[legritter]

Perhaps a major pattern change is on the cards for some northern hemisphere locations ,it could very well be taking place as we ponder our charts ,theres plenty of cold air in northern latitudes and i think we are in a good position to tap into some of that .Looking at ECM out till 10 days certainly looks to me that we will get a cold shot ,but at this range past 7/8 days i feel will constantly change ,going by past good cold synoptics the end charts in that set up are always changing and will  keep us on our toes .as for GFS i find this a usefull modell to show us the variouse possibilitys out there .Its a shame uk met only give us 144 hrs maximum ,but you can read from daily updates looking out till 15 days for possible clues etc .our hobby is frustrating but very interesting with very good posters who have plenty of knowledge and share it on our top rated forum .but we must not forget that meteorology is not an exact science and 15 days a head forecasting is pushing big time in my opinion .roll on tonights runs could be a good one ,cheers 

[cobbett]

Nobody knows. That is the answer. All this what if this happens, what oif that happens is really amusing. nobody can tell what is going to happen with the weather. I wish people would take heed of this. Look at the "storm" that hit us, 10 days out it was looking like 1987, then when it actually arrived it was no comparison. Lesson learned? I very much doubt it.

So why are you viewing the MOD thread - seems a bit pointless for you if it's all a complete waste of time

[Man With Beard]

Another factor that might slip under the radar next weekend is the wind. I had a look at the GEFS ensembles and was surprised at how many had a reasonably deep storm running through or near the UK. Which may also mean heavy rain, or ... (wait for it!) ... blizzards ......... 

[Jimmyh]

If only!!!!!

 

I dream that is about 120 miles further south

[garbagebags]

I think we really need to be looking towards next weekend for any kind of cold. People talking about "cold snap" next week. But to be honest the -5 line is hardly even making scotland. I don't consider that a cold snap at all.

[Snowman.]

I think we really need to be looking towards next weekend for any kind of cold. People talking about "cold snap" next week. But to be honest the -5 line is hardly even making scotland. I don't consider that a cold snap at all.

Thursday is the day it begins to get cold no one is talking any earlier than that.

[bluearmy]

 

I think we really need to be looking towards next weekend for any kind of cold. People talking about "cold snap" next week. But to be honest the -5 line is hardly even making scotland. I don't consider that a cold snap at all.

 initially the period post the 5th looked like the onset but this has drifted back towards the 7th. its next weekend - probably late friday for scotland. i think you are being a tad pedantic gb ??

[nick sussex]

Not long to go now till the next GFS run, anyone wanting an extension of the cold then keep an eye on this deep low upstream over Canada shown on the GFS 06hrs run, will it still be there this evening and how amplified will it turn out to be.

 

I'm calling this the cold extension low as this feature could be pivotal in not only developing a stronger ridge over Greenland and getting any high much further north, as the PV then moves west to Canada any topple starts from  a better start point.

 

The GFS lower resolution flattened the pattern out somewhat, if there are any annoying shortwaves near the UK then this low can help carve more amplification ahead of it to force these se.

 

 

 

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

  initially the period post the 5th looked like the onset but this has drifted back towards the 7th. its next weekend - probably late friday for scotland. i think you are being a tad pedantic gb ??

Indeed looking at the models some showing -12 and most top models showing -8 across most of the UK so if it happens then marginal would not be an issue under deep uppers like this and thickness with possible 510 dam line into the north.So no question it will be wintry and let's hope unstable air flow to.Nit that it will benefit us down here still Dam cold.

[Frosty.]

Hey guys, met office update much more wintry from later next week into following week, snow is mentioned unlike yesterday. This is a very fluid situation now, significant adjustments to the pattern ongoing, totally different outlook for northern uk than a mere 24 hours ago, there is potential for further upgrades and mogreps is chopping and changing. The models do indeed look more wintry for longer than yesterday, take the 6z for example..this is looking good, it could look great in a few more days.

[cooling climate]

Well eyes down for what will hopefully be a very good afternoon and evening of

model watching, if you like cold wintry weather that is.

[snowblizzard]

Hi Nick, I really look forward to reading your posts, they are very interesting and informative.

 

But, when you say how 'amplified' the cold extension low will turn out, do you mean how much it will deepen or what?

 

Thanks, Colin

[TSNWK]

Enjoy the ride folks, I'm settled down with a tea, crisps as the anticipation builds..let the games begin. Enjoy

[cooling climate]

Not long to go now till the next GFS run, anyone wanting an extension of the cold then keep an eye on this deep low upstream over Canada shown on the GFS 06hrs run, will it still be there this evening and how amplified will it turn out to be.

 

I'm calling this the cold extension low as this feature could be pivotal in not only developing a stronger ridge over Greenland and getting any high much further north, as the PV then moves west to Canada any topple starts from  a better start point.

 

The GFS lower resolution flattened the pattern out somewhat, if there are any annoying shortwaves near the UK then this low can help carve more amplification ahead of it to force these se.

 

gfsnh-0-186.png

The low should will be there its what starts the whole meridonal pattern change to start with.

The question is how deep will it become and its direction of travel. Less deep and further

south would be better than deeper and further north.

[Ian Brown]

Hey guys, met office update much more wintry from later next week into following week, snow is mentioned unlike yesterday. This is a very fluid situation now, significant adjustments to the pattern ongoing, totally different outlook for northern uk than a mere 24 hours ago, there is potential for further upgrades and mogreps is chopping and changing. The models do indeed look more wintry for longer than yesterday, take the 6z for example..this is looking good, it could look great in a few more days.

 

We will have to see Frosty, remember the 12z can be quite progressive in what it shows. The METO are still talking about unsettled in the far North and NW in their outlook which suggests the Northern arm still barreling across to Scandi.

[gottolovethisweather]

Not long to go now till the next GFS run, anyone wanting an extension of the cold then keep an eye on this deep low upstream over Canada shown on the GFS 06hrs run, will it still be there this evening and how amplified will it turn out to be.

 

I'm calling this the cold extension low as this feature could be pivotal in not only developing a stronger ridge over Greenland and getting any high much further north, as the PV then moves west to Canada any topple starts from  a better start point.

 

The GFS lower resolution flattened the pattern out somewhat, if there are any annoying shortwaves near the UK then this low can help carve more amplification ahead of it to force these se.

 

gfsnh-0-186.png

 

Further to Nick's excellent analysis we also have the complication brought about by a surface feature off the Eastern seaboard which showed up on prior analysis come the 3rd December. All will be revealed with regard to that feature any second now as the 12z GFS is rolling, watch where it goes as it tracks across the Atlantic and then look for the cold extension low as mentioned above. Whilst doing so we also need to keep our eyes peeled over in the Pacific section.

Edited November 29, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Minimal change out to 90h.Thats suggestive GFS is happy with its early output.

I'd like to see an identical run to 06z please GFS control room..

[gottolovethisweather]

Here's your answer to my first riddle. The run is unfolding so be careful in jumping to any conclusions just yet.

 

 

 

[Mucka]

Also there is the complication brought about by a surface feature off the Eastern seaboard which showed up on prior analysis come the 3rd December. All will be revealed with regard to that feature any second now as the 12z GFS is rolling, watch where it goes as it tracks across the Atlantic and then look for the cold extension low as mentioned above. Whilst doing so we also need to keep our eyes peeled over in the Pacific section.

 

 

Tora! Tora! Tora! 

 

More like the 06z than the 00z the way it deals with the split energy but better in that the trough is initially digging a little further SW and the high is slightly better orientated which should help draw the cold further South and help amplify the pattern behind.

 

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

12z 120

 

Phasing looks spot on on this run - both off the east coast & for picking up the polar flow & ejecting it south across the UK....

 

S

[Ian Brown]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

 

12z 120

 

Phasing looks spot on on this run - both off the east coast & for picking up the polar flow & ejecting it south across the UK....

 

S

 

It looks very similar to the 06z thus far.

[MR EXTREMES]

we need energy to drop down into Europe its looking a little ify already but lets hope t144 to t168 don't disappoint.

[bluearmy]

the split flow jet over the states pahses together more on this run but the fact that we have split flow jets phasing together tells us all we need to know about the problems we are seeing on the models

[Captain Shortwave]

12z

06z

Quite a difference over North America