South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[dec10snow]

So, winter has started and it still seems really quiet on here, so let's liven it up...

ITS GOING TO SNOW

*Disclaimer: this is one run of the GFS and is probably wrong, don't shoot me if I'm wrong*

[Beast of Plympton]

Just noted that on the met office app that Princetown forecast for light snow early Friday. As stated it would be good to get some kinks in the isobars for anything of real interest to happen.

Yeah, it seems to be changing a lot, had us down for heavy snow at one point. Guess we will see closer to the time!

[Dorsetbred]

Let's see

Temperature 6.1°C

Conditions: Overcast & Dry

That's means it's: Groundhog day

Edited December 2, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was dry and cool with a light wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm 05:38 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.2 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 7.2°C 14:25 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 2 mph 05:23 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 0 mph 00:00 Wind Run Yesterday: 0.0 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 90° E.

[Mapantz]

6.7C and cloudy. Latest GFS has the coldest air slightly further east, may change on the 06Z but the general consensus is that it looks like a short affair. I keep seeing 'northerly' mentioned, but is it? Progged wind direction for here is a north westerly. There should be a nice contrast in temperatures on Thursday though, as the cold front sinks down.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mapantz

[Nights King]

Yes a week or so of model drama followed by sweet FA

 

Cool, chilly and dull benign weather today again

[gottolovethisweather]

6.7C and cloudy. Latest GFS has the coldest air slightly further east, may change on the 06Z but the general consensus is that it looks like a short affair. I keep seeing 'northerly' mentioned, but is it? Progged wind direction for here is a north westerly. There should be a nice contrast in temperatures on Thursday though, as the cold front sinks down.

viewimage (.png viewimage (9).png viewimage (10).png viewimage (5).png

 

Yes indeed Mapantz, but I wouldn't rule out some snow this way and IMBY (more unlikely tbf) but the general consensus as always will be for a more watered-down version of the initial extremes shown. My expectations have been well illustrated in the MOD thread and I do believe we need to wait another 36 hours or so to confirm which way this developing situation will go. FI is still at a very early timescale and that by itself suggests nothing is nailed over the next five days alone.

Edited December 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[MPG]

Really is blink and you will miss it

 

[fromey]

Just caught the bbc weather, cold for maybe half aday then less cold air back in by late Saturday/Sunday, blink and you miss it!!

Fromey

[Gibby]

November, Autumn and Annual Data to date for Radstock can be found here:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

[MPG]

Just caught the bbc weather, cold for maybe half aday then less cold air back in by late Saturday/Sunday, blink and you miss it!!Fromey

Certainly a quick transition from cool to freezing to mildish!

 

This year so far (2nd day of winter aswell) has been great compared to last winter. Rain rain rain Nov and Dec 2012. I had to wait until January this year for temps to dip below freezing, but that was only just -0.2 and that was during the first frontal slushy snow event and +1 during the second slushy wet snow event. But even in March, still didnt see a ground frost due to the strong east wind.

 

This year I have seen three frosts, with temps down to -2.7. Quite a bit of sunny dry weather too which have been great. A northerly blast of some sorts this weekend then potentially more frost as the high sits over us. Not a bad end to Autumn and start of winter in the warm SW!!

Edited December 2, 2013 by MPG

[Nights King]

Last autumn/winter Somerset had already seen up to 6 inches of snow in places including Bath on day before bonfire night although your right we had a lot of rain throughout autumn last year.

 

Lots of talk about scandi blocks etc on mod thread a bit too much wishful thinking me thinks...

Edited December 2, 2013 by mullender83

[karlos1983]

Last autumn/winter Somerset had already seen up to 6 inches of snow in places including Bath on day before bonfire night although your right we had a lot of rain throughout autumn last year.

 

Lots of talk about scandi blocks etc on mod thread a bit too much wishful thinking me thinks...

 

It certainly keeps popping up as an option though (Easterly)! 

 

Blimmin hard to get in properly though, last year was agonizingly close, only to be scuppered by a pesky sw.

 

This year is surely our year, the North got pounded last year for weeks!! I want drifts up to my gutter photos from Cornwall to Hampshire, even the Channel islands got plastered when they and the french nicked our channel low! 

[Nights King]

It certainly keeps popping up as an option though (Easterly)! 

 

Blimmin hard to get in properly though, last year was agonizingly close, only to be scuppered by a pesky sw.

 

This year is surely our year, the North got pounded last year for weeks!! I want drifts up to my gutter photos from Cornwall to Hampshire, even the Channel islands got plastered when they and the french nicked our channel low! 

 

Yes one day we shall see a true snowstorm I hope but it is rarer than hens teeth in west country for last few decades and your right it needs to be spot on.

 

Looking at temperatures forecast for the 'cold spell' ahead on met office site it shows us having a colder day on Tuesday than thurs/Friday which is 5c so I think a chilly breeze is all we can expect. 

[Dorsetbred]

OMG from the NWS in Texas:

Dressing for the Weather

Wear loose-fitting, lightweight clothing in several layers.

Outer garments should be tightly-woven and water-repellant.

Wear a hat. Nearly half of your body heat loss is from the top of your head.

Wear gloves or mittens (mittens which are snug at the wrist are better than gloves).

Try to stay dry. Remove layers of clothing to prevent perspiration and subsequent chill.

 

Which of the above is a myth?

[Polar Bear]

OMG from the NWS in Texas:

Dressing for the Weather

Wear loose-fitting, lightweight clothing in several layers.

Outer garments should be tightly-woven and water-repellant.

Wear a hat. Nearly half of your body heat loss is from the top of your head.

Wear gloves or mittens (mittens which are snug at the wrist are better than gloves).

Try to stay dry. Remove layers of clothing to prevent perspiration and subsequent chill.

 

Which of the above is a myth?

 

last one..what do I win?

[Dorsetbred]

 

OMG from the NWS in Texas:

Dressing for the Weather

Wear loose-fitting, lightweight clothing in several layers.

Outer garments should be tightly-woven and water-repellant.

Wear a hat. Nearly half of your body heat loss is from the top of your head.

Wear gloves or mittens (mittens which are snug at the wrist are better than gloves).

Try to stay dry. Remove layers of clothing to prevent perspiration and subsequent chill.

 

Which of the above is a myth?

 

last one..what do I win?

 

Nice try but wrong.

[karlos1983]

 

OMG from the NWS in Texas:

Dressing for the Weather

Wear loose-fitting, lightweight clothing in several layers.

Outer garments should be tightly-woven and water-repellant.

Wear a hat. Nearly half of your body heat loss is from the top of your head.

Wear gloves or mittens (mittens which are snug at the wrist are better than gloves).

Try to stay dry. Remove layers of clothing to prevent perspiration and subsequent chill.

 

Which of the above is a myth?

 

last one..what do I win?

 

 

#3.

 

When do I receive my Mars Bar?

[Dorsetbred]

#3.

 

When do I receive my Mars Bar?

Well done, you have won the right to contact the National Weather Service of the USA and tell them just how stoopid they are in publishing such nonsense. Over to you. PS the Mars bar is out the back being guarded by my vicious Chihuahua, yours if you can get it

[Polar Bear]

#3.

 

When do I receive my Mars Bar?

derrh yep you is prob right. no 3.. it is more than half isn't it? something like 60% or is the whole thing a myth. Mind you think Ill be digging mine out for Wed, Thurs. Definitely feeling colder out there - flipping fed up though with this grey overcast though and nothing happening - please a little more sunshine please?  If we cant have snow can we have sun please? oh just checked my nearest weather station and a nice 5.8 degrees. lovely jubbly.

[Dorsetbred]

derrh yep you is prob right. no 3.. it is more than half isn't it? something like 60% or is the whole thing a myth. Mind you think Ill be digging mine out for Wed, Thurs. Definitely feeling colder out there - flipping fed up though with this grey overcast though and nothing happening - please a little more sunshine please?  If we cant have snow can we have sun please? oh just checked my nearest weather station and a nice 5.8 degrees. lovely jubbly.

It's a myth, there's no reason why your head looses anymore than any other part of your body, quote:

 

The myth is thought to have arisen through a flawed interpretation of a vaguely scientific experiment by the US military in the 1950s. In those studies, volunteers were dressed in Arctic survival suits and exposed to bitterly cold conditions. Because it was the only part of their bodies left uncovered, most of their heat was lost through their heads.

The face, head and chest are more sensitive to changes in temperature than the rest of the body, making it feel as if covering them up does more to prevent heat loss. In fact, covering one part of the body has as much effect as covering any other. If the experiment had been performed with people wearing only swimming trunks, they would have lost no more than 10% of their body heat through their heads, the scientists add.

Apologies for the slight digression, but it just shows how EVEN the NWS can get things wildly incorrect. (I know its NWS & not the Met Office)

 

So let's get this weekend out the way and get more into December.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[karlos1983]

derrh yep you is prob right. no 3.. it is more than half isn't it? something like 60% or is the whole thing a myth. Mind you think Ill be digging mine out for Wed, Thurs. Definitely feeling colder out there - flipping fed up though with this grey overcast though and nothing happening - please a little more sunshine please?  If we cant have snow can we have sun please? oh just checked my nearest weather station and a nice 5.8 degrees. lovely jubbly.

 

I know, it's like groundhog day at the moment 

 

Let's hope we can get a stiff Easterly in followed by a nice channel low around 24th/25th December  not to much to ask is it......

It's a myth, there's no reason why your head looses anymore than any other part of your body, quote:

 

The myth is thought to have arisen through a flawed interpretation of a vaguely scientific experiment by the US military in the 1950s. In those studies, volunteers were dressed in Arctic survival suits and exposed to bitterly cold conditions. Because it was the only part of their bodies left uncovered, most of their heat was lost through their heads.

The face, head and chest are more sensitive to changes in temperature than the rest of the body, making it feel as if covering them up does more to prevent heat loss. In fact, covering one part of the body has as much effect as covering any other. If the experiment had been performed with people wearing only swimming trunks, they would have lost no more than 10% of their body heat through their heads, the scientists add.

Apologies for the slight digression, but it just shows how EVEN the NWS can get things wildly incorrect. (I know its NWS & not the Met Office)

 

So let's get this weekend out the way and get more into December.

 

And they were all bald ..........

[dec10snow]

For those of you who don't usually travel into the Mad Discussion thread, Steve Murr's post is definitely worth a read... A brilliant post from him for experienced model readers, to learners alike;http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78631-model-output-discussion-30th-november-onwards/page-64#entry2852232

Edited December 2, 2013 by Nick L
Not for space reasons, but none of the links worked

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was dry and cool with a moderate wind yesterday, here. High Rainfall Rate Yesterday: 0.0 mm/hr 00:00 High Hourly Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm 00:00 Rainfall Yesterday: 0.0 mm High Temperature Yesterday: 10.3°C 12:35 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 12 mph 11:06 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 7 mph 11:09 Wind Run Yesterday: 15.6 mi Dominant Direction Yesterday: 77° ENE.

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to SMs post which is well worth a read and additionally it was very well presented, I will simply add one ensemble chart and its from Helsinki, it comes courtesy of the GFS 0z run. Having heard Steve speak favourably about the 0z runs, more especially the other model suites (as we know) but I have what I have in my possession and I agree, look Northeast.   At this range, the key date for a potentially big game changer for our weather would be from the 12th December onwards. My thoughts are solely based around the GFS 0z run and certain other developments. Thereafter, I will make comparisons with my personal favourite the 12z GFS when I get the time, whilst obviously accounting for all other NWP outputs and hopefully determine a fixed trend.

 

So here goes, check out the Air Pressure trend for Helsinki  , we need this to firm up over the coming days around the timeframe aforementioned. Should things verify, the UKs weather could see a major turnaround in coldies fortunes by mid-December. A darn long way to go yet though.

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather