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Super Typhoon Haiyan


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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

On the subject of evacuating for storm surge, there was a pertinent comment by a poster on a hurricane forum, where several local residents were participating. They were used to precipitation flooding but seemed to be unaware that there was a threat from the sea -when it was pointed out that wind damage would be like an EF4 tornado followed by a tsunami they realised staying put had maybe not been a good idea.

 


Reports I saw before the storm suggested most of the coastal residents just didn't comprehend what a storm surge was or why they had to leave. Even the authorities - not blaming PAGASA as they did forecast a 15 foot surge - didn't seem to understand the threat well, or at least they didn't communicate it well. Think about it - in most of the Philippines, there's a sharp drop-off to the Philippine Trench right offshore, which mitigates surges. The Leyte Gulf is one of the few natural "surge traps" and at such a low latitude, strong typhoons are pretty rare in that location. I suspect it's just a foreign concept to many Philippine people. There isn't even a Tagalog word for "storm surge".

When we were talking to Stormstrike from Tacloban earlier in this thread (around Page 25) he was concerned about Haiyan, but only about the winds and maybe rain flooding, and he felt somewhat safe because his house is concrete, his trees were tripped back, and he has supplies. I asked him his elevation above sea level and he had no idea and didn't realize it was even a concern. I told him the storm surge will be like a tsunami and he freaked out. Everybody around the world understands tsunamis after all the videos of the past few years, and that's the type of visceral language that needs to be used to communicate the threat of storm surge flooding in the future.

I hope Stormstrike is safe and checks in soon, and I'm glad to see many of you others from the region are checking back in now.

 

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=115958&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1200

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I fear that the death toll from Haiyan (Yolanda as named in the Philippines) will probably reach or exceed 10,000.

 

I fear that you may be correct.

 

 

10,000 feared killied in Philippines by Super Typhoon Haiyan

 

An estimated 10,000 people might have been killed in the central Philippine province of Leyte alone, which was almost completely destroyed by the powerful typhoon Haiyan, local authorities said.

 

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

 

 

 

 

http://rt.com/news/philippines-thousands-feared-dead-489/

 

Truly devastating.

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

On the subject of evacuating for storm surge, there was a pertinent comment by a poster on a hurricane forum, where several local residents were participating. They were used to precipitation flooding but seemed to be unaware that there was a threat from the sea -when it was pointed out that wind damage would be like an EF4 tornado followed by a tsunami they realised staying put had maybe not been a good idea.

 

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=115958&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1200

That's incredible. I had an inkling that the Philippines aren't generally as susceptible to storm surge as some other parts of the world (like much of the Gulf of Mexico shoreline) but I would have thought that a country which experiences powerful typhoons on a pretty regular basis would have some expectation of what such ferocious storms can do with the sea.

 

Storm surge is terribly destructive when it occurs and will kill people in large numbers if there isn't a good evacuation plan in place. As ridiculously strong as Haiyan's winds were, I just wonder how many people were killed by effects from the wind as opposed to the storm surge.

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Horrific, I hope they get all the help they need.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lov8KfSrpwk

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

On the subject of evacuating for storm surge, there was a pertinent comment by a poster on a hurricane forum, where several local residents were participating. They were used to precipitation flooding but seemed to be unaware that there was a threat from the sea -when it was pointed out that wind damage would be like an EF4 tornado followed by a tsunami they realised staying put had maybe not been a good idea.

 

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=115958&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1200

I read that thread, after seeing this. Definitely an interesting read as it tells the story of the storm, from its first development.

However and to me even more disturbing than the Stormstrike story, is a photo that was posted by one of the chasers, of a lot of families and young children sheltering in a church, which didn't look very robust and had a lot of windows. Unfortunately this was very close to the sea and 10 miles south of Tacloban. The area would undoubtedly have had the eyewall. I can't see how this has had a happy outcome. Very, very upsetting. Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I read that thread, after seeing this. Definitely an interesting read as it tells the story of the storm, from its first development.

However and to me even more disturbing than the Stormstrike story, is a photo that was posted by one of the chasers, of a lot of families and young children sheltering in a church, which didn't look very robust and had a lot of windows. Unfortunately this was very close to the sea and 10 miles south of Tacloban. The area would undoubtedly have had the eyewall. I can't see how this has had a happy outcome. Very, very upsetting. Posted ImagePosted Image

Doesn't sound very good at all, I don't think many realised what was coming, having read the stormstrike story. I don't think many realised the sea factored at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Haiyan's track has shifted a little north, meaning Hainan Island is being pounded by the right front quadrant of the storm this morning. Winds are down to 80kts, from a combination of cooler waters and now land interaction. As Haiyan enters the Gulf Of Tonkin, further weakening should take place before final landfall in the extreme north of Vietnam.

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

This is an extreme devastation beyond expression - those poor poor peoplePosted ImagePosted Image   It certainly totally humbles perceptions of what severe weather means in this country, and any severe weather is a threat at its own level.

 

I had a look at one of the webcams at Boracay Beach the other evening, further west in the Philippines in the path of this approaching monster as it was hitting the eastern most parts with its extreme impacts, and could see a few people scurrying around trying to secure things as best they could - and even one or two individuals right at the waters edge on the beach looking out to sea, almost in resigned fate. The initial rainbands and the first strengthening of the wind were just beginning at the time but everything was still intact.

 

The webcam has obviously been down since then, but I keep wondering what has become of those folk and what effect the typhoon had on the locality there (as it has everywhere else of course in its path)Posted Image

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

On Beeb the headline says 'Hundreds feared dead' while the Sky news says 'Thousands feared dead'. I dunno which media company I trust the most. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ http://news.sky.com/

None of the above...
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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

None of the above...

See nothing wrong with the BBC reporting, they are only going on the information they are getting from the ground and at http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1125/NDRRMC%20Update%20SitRep%20no.%2010%20re%20Effects%20of%20TY%20Yolanda,%2010%20Nov%202013,%206AM.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

Well as far as Boracay Island is concerned and as I wondered about - this is relatively good news to read. Seems they escaped the worst of it and although there is damage they have fared much better than elsewherePosted Image

 

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDcQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theepochtimes.com%2Fn3%2F351910-boracay-island-significant-damage-from-typhoon-haiyan-neighborhoods-devastated%2F&ei=J4V_UtKoNO_40gX-8YDoBg&usg=AFQjCNFnfeffggqbTm-b08GmxwTivnJmPw&bvm=bv.56146854,d.d2k

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Haiyan's centre is passing very close to, or just over, Bach Long Vi, a tiny isolated island between Hainan and northeastern Vietnam, in the next couple of hours.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=59023&ano=2013&mes=11&day=10&hora=15&min=0&ndays=30

There are 3-hourly manned synop reports from the island's station (8 m amsl). The last one at 1500Z showed 41 gust 70 kt winds, pressure dropping 11.5 hPa in 3 hours to 983.7 hPa. 69 mm of rain in 3 hours. The 1800Z report will be interesting.

AAXX 10151 48839 21495 80521 10242 20240 39774 49837 57115 76566 8672/

222// 00240 2////

333 59292 60697 86894 88499 91136 91536 96165=

Edited by Su Campu
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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex

Haiyan's centre is passing very close to, or just over, Bach Long Vi, a tiny isolated island between Hainan and northeastern Vietnam, in the next couple of hours.http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=59023&ano=2013&mes=11&day=10&hora=15&min=0&ndays=30There are 3-hourly manned synop reports from the island's station (8 m amsl). The last one at 1500Z showed 41 gust 70 kt winds, pressure dropping 11.5 hPa in 3 hours to 983.7 hPa. 69 mm of rain in 3 hours. The 1800Z report will be interesting.AAXX 10151 48839 21495 80521 10242 20240 39774 49837 57115 76566 8672/222// 00240 2////333 59292 60697 86894 88499 91136 91536 96165=

 

That's a link for somewhere in China, this is the one you meant I think - http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=48839〈=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2013&mes=11&day=10

Edited by SteveCoops
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In regards to Haiyans strength when it hit the Philippines:

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/11/07/haiyan-explodes-into-190-mph-monster-now-worlds-strongest-hurricane-since-1980/

 

Around half way down the page: "Unconfirmed pressure reading at 889 mb via handheld near Guiuan at 5:01 AM."

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Horrifying. The news reports keep coming in which are very distressing. I just so wish I could do something for them..
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

You can. Posted Image

Thanks Gael good links.. And ill remember to post about. Although there are a few naughty emails doing the rounds on Facebook. I will be giving but i was also meaning physically do something If that makes sense..

http://www.shelterbox.org/

http://www.redcross.org.ph/

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As the storm surge seems to be the main reason for the tragic loss of life some thoughts on Philippine storm surges.

 

It's very possible that Haiyan generated the highest storm surge in the history of East Asia, however, it will take time to measure the high water marks. The highest storm surges in East Asia have occurred in the Philippines, as the archipelago experiences frequent strikes from intense tropical cyclones.Although we are looking into reports of a 10 meter (32.8 foot) surge that may have impacted the Philippines in 1968, at the moment the highest confirmed surge event in East Asia was a 7.3-meter (24 foot) storm tide that struck the Philippines in 1897 (Arafiles et al. 1978) . This cyclone, called the Typhoon of Samar and Leyte, struck on October 12, 1897, generated a peak water level at Hernani and Tanglad. Hernani is located just north of Haiyan's landfall, and would have experienced very intense onshore winds during Haiyan. The storm tide from the 1897 cyclone killed 1,300 people.

 

 

http://stormsurge2010.blogspot.dk/2013/11/haiyans-surge-may-have-been-highest-in.html?m=1

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

There doesn't seem to be a 21:00 report?

 

Yes, there is. SSE 39 gust 64 knots. Pressure shooting back up by 11.5 hPa in 3 hours. 

AAXX 10211 48839 21496 82020 10240 20237 39909 49973 52115 76262 8672/

222// 00249 2////

333 59124 60047 86894 88499 91133 91520 96162=

 

Just making landfall in NE Vietnam.http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=2&nav=Yes&lat=20N&lon=105E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2013&mes=11&day=10&hora=21&min=0&vwi=Wi

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Its windfield has completely collapsed and it's just a rain-maker now, with 343 mm having fallen in 24 hours at Beihai, along the Chinese coast.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=2&nav=Yes&lat=20N&lon=105E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2013&mes=11&day=11&hora=6&min=0&vr4=R4

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