Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

I'm far from convinced that high pressure will be allowed to build in and stick around next week after reading the latest met office update today, and the Ecm 00z ensemble mean remains unsettled throughout the next 10 days.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[SMU]

Guys- that pacific ridge is no good its flat -

 

it would need to be a high shaped towards the pole not flat-

 

S

[Cloud 10]

As long as it doesn't turn out like that movie...PACIFIC RIM..now that would be scary :- )

 

Or this movie...

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows high pressure coming in as early as Sunday

 

 

t192 shows it getting pushed back, but this is a minor blip

 

 

as t216 and 240 show it returning

 

 

Things are starting to look better this evening with the Atlantic train of low pressure systems possible running out of steam

 

UKMO back ECM up at t144 with it too showing high pressure building in

 

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Skullzrulerz]

Still no hope of any cold 

[nick sussex]

Guys- that pacific ridge is no good its flat - it would need to be a high shaped towards the pole not flat- S

It looks better orientated at 240hrs though, at least todays output isn't so underwhelming. Just a few crumbs of interest but better than nothing!

[SMU]

Indeed- more of a wave of amplification!

 

I think we are a good week + away from something more exciting- however at least something is in site!S 

[Summer Sun]

Hints of the NAO going negative as we move into the 2nd half of November

 

 

For those who don't know how it works

 

Positive NAO allows milder wetter westerlies to dominate the UK

 

Negative NAO can trigger northern blocking allowing colder air to sweep across the UK either from the north or East

Edited November 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Guys- that pacific ridge is no good its flat - it would need to be a high shaped towards the pole not flat- S

What we really need is a sausage shaped high steve. : - )

[Iceni]

What we really need is a sausage shaped high steve. : - )

 

Could someone explain why the shape matters? Should it have a pointy end or something?

[Polar Maritime]

It's what the shape relates to that matters..

[cooling climate]

Final couple of frames from the ECM 12z this evening are very encouraging

I think with Pacific ridge throwing real heights and amplification into northeastern

Siberia and the Arctic.

Of course it could be gone by the morning but this is certainly what we want to see.

[nick sussex]

Could someone explain why the shape matters? Should it have a pointy end or something?

Lol!!! The Murr Sausage as its known is his take on what we need to see if we're looking at a Russian block/Scandi high! it doesn't need to be pointy in that respect! Maybe SM will put up an image of the MS to clarify matters!

[Paul]

Jo's latest forecast for the week ahead - did someone mention a possible cold plunge for the weekend?

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5501;sess=

[Neilsouth]

OH JOLLY GOOD! Who is this posh Jo

[Frosty.]

Looking forward to the siberian sausage shaped high this winter, I really think there is a good chance of the siberian cold block backing westwards as winter deepens. In the meantime, there is support for polar maritime and arctic incursions later in the month, with occasional PM shots during the next few weeks with snow on northern hills and mountains. :- )

[ANYWEATHER]

OH JOLLY GOOD! Who is this posh Jo

I think she is a great weather presenter , clear cut and to the point. Love watching Jo Farrow !!!  

[legritter]

HEY gang what about a greenland pear ,an icelandic melon and a scandinavian paperclip ,certainly plenty going on with modells and its nice to see a relaxed mood on here ,Prams i believe are coming out the loft ,and Razor blades being sharpened .But we are starting to see signs of winter aproaching lets hope its a good one .

[Skullzrulerz]

HEY gang what about a greenland pear ,an icelandic melon and a scandinavian paperclip ,certainly plenty going on with modells and its nice to see a relaxed mood on here ,Prams i believe are coming out the loft ,and Razor blades being sharpened .But we are starting to see signs of winter aproaching lets hope its a good one .

I hope your right 

[bluearmy]

Signst today that the pacific ridge could amplify rather more than its shown on previous days output. However, we're still some way from seeing the required amplification make it within a reliable timeframe. Small acorns etc .........

[abruzzi spur]

Lol!!! The Murr Sausage as its known is his take on what we need to see if we're looking at a Russian block/Scandi high! it doesn't need to be pointy in that respect! Maybe SM will put up an image of the MS to clarify matters!

Nick, you are entering dangerous territory, I'm obviously not a MOD but I don't think Steve (or anyone for that matter) should be encouraged to post an image of their sausage.AS

[Mr Frost]

This was Steve on Halloween...

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, growing trend for a build of pressure behind this week's broad Westerly winds and occasional rain. Mist, fog and frost could occur next week in the south if pressure does rise

 

All models appear in general agreement on the weather types likely to be experienced over the UK from today up until the end of the weekend. A Westerly airflow is currently re-establishing across the UK in the next 24 hours. Heralding the arrival of this is a trough that will carry rain West to East across Britain tonight and tomorrow followed by a brisk and somewhat showery Westerly flow later with the showers, heaviest towards the NW. By Wednesday a frontal wave runs East across Southern Britain with a spell of prolonged and probably heavy rain, not clearing until later. Showery weather over the North will extend to all areas through Thursday and Friday with some frequent and heavy, thundery showers in the West at times. Over the weekend models do diverge a little with most showing little let up in the brisk and unstable Westerly flow while UKMO brings a stronger ridge than we have seen for some time cross the UK from the West with a dry and bright day expected.

 

GFS then shows the South becoming much drier and relatively mild in a light SW flow around High pressure close to the South of the UK. The North will see more changeable weather with rain and strong winds at times. Everywhere looks like staying mild or perhaps very mild if the High remains just to the South of the UK maintaining a rather overcast but mild feed of winds from the Azores.

 

UKMO tonight has a High pressure ridge crossing East over the UK next Sunday with a fine and bright day for all, not unlike today. It does look like the North and West would most likely turn breezy and unsettled again to start the new week while the South and East stay largely dry if rather cloudy. It would become mild again everywhere following an overnight frost on Saturday.

 

GEM is much more intent on delivering continuing strong and blustery Westerly winds both North and South of the UK in relatively mild and cloudy conditions. The North would more than likely see the heaviest rainfall with rather less likely than of late over the South.

 

NAVGEM shows a mild Westerly flow next weekend gradually veering towards the NW late on in the weekend and the start of next week with outbreaks of rain or showers and temperatures falling a little to chillier levels with time.

 

ECM looks much like UKMO on Sunday with a fine and dry day following the wet weekdays and Saturday. As we move into next week the weather though changeable will become drier across Southern Britain as High pressure stays much closer by than of late. Some rain though will still make it's way SE across Northern and Eastern areas early next week with temperatures closer to average with some frost and mist patches becoming steadily more likely as the pressure rises. By the end of the run a North/South split looks like developing with mild and changeable weather in the North with rain at times in a brisk SW wind while the South sees dry and bright weather but with some fog and frost likely in places should skies stay clear.

 

The GFS Ensembles look a good deal better during Week 2 as High pressure stands a good chance of playing a role in the UK weather for a time. Late in the run a popular consensus looks to be for more unsettled weather to return by the end of the run. Temperatures are still showing nothing overly cold but if High pressure settles over the UK for a time light winds and clear skies could develop into a fog and frost problem.

 

The Jet Stream blows across the Atlantic and the UK for the coming week before signs of it becoming more undulated and more towards a position North of the UK next week are apparent.

 

In Summary there is a growing trend for a build of pressure behind this week's broad Westerly winds and occasional rain. The pressure build looks more influential to the weather across Southern Britain more than further North where further rain at times seems possible. In the South next week looks much drier with only limited rain events and periods of fine and dry weather with light winds when mist, fog and local frost problems at night could lower the average surface temepratures, especially by night.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

I think there are encouraging signs for coldies in the weeks ahead having had a good look through the output today, at least now it feels like november instead of september...winter can't come soon enough for me now..I want some of canadian coop's snow :- )

[Jason T]

I think there are encouraging signs for coldies in the weeks ahead having had a good look through the output today, at least now it feels like november instead of september...winter can't come soon enough for me now..I want some of canadian coop's snow :- )

 

 

Like starting of with something like this Frosty.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=18&month=1&year=1963&hour=12&map=0&mode=0