Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Kiwi]

I'm on Portland Dorset ! I have a feeling were going to be hit badly 

Yes .... Is Portland likely to get cut off?

Edited October 26, 2013 by Kiwi

[johnholmes]

Great so if I survive this I've got it all again when I go home

 

we need to know where home is if you ask any questions, can you pop it into your avatar please? - thanks

[radiohead]

Actually, 12Z Hirlam shows pressure down to 960mb over Wales. Force 12 in the Bristol Channel...Hopefully it's wrong, but the Hirlam does have higher resolution than the global models. Worrying.

 

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

[stevofunnelcl]

It makes me spout fire... talk of hurricanes !!

Surely, the journalists of these 'rags' could do a little 'research' before they go spouting off that a hurricane is Uk bound

 

It's down to the Met Office to correct / educate. This is good clarification

 

They just released this

 

The severe storm this weekend and why it’s not a hurricane

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/the-severe-storm-this-weekend-and-why-its-not-a-hurricane/

 

[Barry12]

Wouldn't be surprised if this hurricane gets a wind speed of 100mph in exposed areas on the south coast, very worrying indeed.

[Iceberg]

Actually, 12Z Hirlam shows pressure down to 960mb over Wales. Force 12 in the Bristol Channel...Hopefully it's wrong, but the Hirlam does have higher resolution than the global models. Worrying.

 

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

 

Yep still a few going for the deeping, inc this ENS and even some ENS with the low up at the scottish boarder so all to play for very much for most.

[A.J]

12z hi-res NMM model now out....some remarkable wind speeds, both mean & gusts accompanied by at times torrential rain.

 

a few charts to illustrate, all charts © Netweather.tv

 

mon 01z

 

 

mon 03z

 

 

mon05z

 

 

mon08z

 

[Snowangel-MK]

Wouldn't be surprised if this hurricane gets a wind speed of 100mph in exposed areas on the south coast, very worrying indeed.

It's not a hurricane (so please don't call the BBC) The severe storm this weekend and why it’s not a hurricanehttp://metofficenews...ot-a-hurricane/

[Jan]

It makes me spout fire... talk of hurricanes !!

Surely, the journalists of these 'rags' could do a little 'research' before they go spouting off that a hurricane is Uk bound

 

It's down to the Met Office to correct / educate. This is good clarification

 

They just released this

 

The severe storm this weekend and why it’s not a hurricane

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/the-severe-storm-this-weekend-and-why-its-not-a-hurricane/

A good explanation they could do with sending it to the Daily Star, Express or Mail, and stop all the sensational headlines

[fluid dynamic]

Actually, 12Z Hirlam shows pressure down to 960mb over Wales. Force 12 in the Bristol Channel...Hopefully it's wrong, but the Hirlam does have higher resolution than the global models. Worrying.

 

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

 

the lowest pressure isobar is 960mb, inside that, the pressure is lower still.

[joanna1971]

I know it's really difficult to predict but can somebody say if Shrewsbury is going to be in the calm of the storm, or could we see,some high winds and strong gusts...I'm off work on Monday and toyed with the idea of going by train to Cardiff bay and stop in st David's hotel to watch the storm, but I'm worried about not being able to get home Monday afternoon..we're all watching excitedly but please people be sensible and stay safe..

[coldfingers]

Yes .... Is Portland likely to get cut off?

If it comes off as the charts are suggesting then I would say Portland is VERY likely to be cut off, unless they have done any upgrade work on the linking road in recent years. It has happened before and the Southwest, turning Westerly look to the winds isn't a good scenario for the causeway. It shouldn't be cut off for too long if it is and remember with neap tides it may not happen.

Edited October 26, 2013 by coldfingers

[A.J]

have reported a few recent posts.....Can some members at least try and post something actually remotely factual instead of either utterly incorrect and/or imflammatory posts.....as busy as this thread is and will be, let's try and keep things on-topic and friendly....thanks!

[Tamara]

Actually, 12Z Hirlam shows pressure down to 960mb over Wales. Force 12 in the Bristol Channel...Hopefully it's wrong, but the Hirlam does have higher resolution than the global models. Worrying.

 

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

Yes I agree and it is interesting that it agrees with this mornings ECM. On that basis its worth putting some faith in the Hirlam this evening and seeing what the ECM suggests in due course. The METO were backing the ECM this morning as to perhaps having the best handle of the development of the low. Time will tell.

 

I think perhaps that the central depth may be overdone though on the Hirlam. ECM was higher.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Mark Neal.]

It makes me spout fire... talk of hurricanes !!

Surely, the journalists of these 'rags' could do a little 'research' before they go spouting off that a hurricane is Uk bound

 

It's down to the Met Office to correct / educate. This is good clarification

 

They just released this

 

The severe storm this weekend and why it’s not a hurricane

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/the-severe-storm-this-weekend-and-why-its-not-a-hurricane/

 

Yes a very good thing I have to say is the Met Office do come out in response to said over sensationalist weather extremes being spouted by certain media outlets. I however think that perhaps the Press Regulation need stricter regulation with certain weather stories, as they quote the Met Office and other reputable organisations which are far from the truth.

 

Anyway back to the oncoming storm. Heavy rain through Monday morning, with as much as 15-20mm in a fair spread of the country as the system moves through. Pressure falling to as low as 965mb being shown by some models so some very tight isboars for Monday morning across Southern 1/2 of UK and then towards North Sea as system slides away into the low countries by Monday afternoon.

 

 

 

[laserguy]

 Autumn is most definitely in charge right now after our rather prolonged Summer warmth..

 

Yep - we knew it was only biding it's time to exact a terrible revenge on a terrible summer which more than outstayed its welcome.

[Lauren]

If anyone is doing scaremongering it certainly isn't the professionals on here or the MO, it's the Daily Express style hysterics from some posters on here as well as the newspapers themselves.

[Isabellesnanny]

Can anyone give me an idea of how the Croydon area is likely to suffer if the storm goes as currently suggested ? I am getting slightly worried mainly due to a huge tree not far from the house -hubby thinks I am being over the top with my doom-mongering and just says the tree survived the 87 storm but still anxious - short of moving in the next 24 hours not much we can do but wonder if anyone has any ideas 're this area ans expected storm impact.Thanks

[CLH the red dragon]

Parts of Wales already seeing 70mph gusts at the moment... Wind is mad here right now too!This is just a pre cursor - and absolutely nothing to do with Mondays set up.

 

Where?

[Gael_Force]

Yes I agree and it is interesting that it agrees with this mornings ECM. On that basis its worth putting some faith in the Hirlam this evening and seeing what the ECM suggests in due course. The METO were backing the ECM this morning as to perhaps having the best handle of the development of the low. Time will tell.

 

I think perhaps that the central depth may be overdone though on the Hirlam. ECM was higher.

 

If that is the KNMI HIRLAM it should be close to the ECM as it is what the model is initiated from i

[WalsallWeather]

Some people really are over-exaggerating this.. Not surprised - it's been awhile since we've waited for a proper storm but lets all keep realistic!

[JK1]

I think the correct term for this storm is an European Windstorm or extratropical cyclone.

[Moleyroley]

Yes .... Is Portland likely to get cut off?

[CLH the red dragon]

Capel Curig for one. Must be hitting 40+ mph plus here in some gusts..

 

So, not 70 then?

 

No, METO observations do show 70 at 17:00. 

Edited October 26, 2013 by CLH the red dragon

[Moleyroley]

Yes .... Is Portland likely to get cut off?

We have chesil Beach road which is windy enough on an average day so yes it could easily be closed off with the winds that are forecast . I'm pretty worried but also excited ! I'm no weather expert but have been reading the forum's for a few years and really enjoy taking on board the information, thank you to all x