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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

sorry guys for this off topic

===

global wind map
news

earth => menu => overlay => new added
Wind Temperature TPW TCW and MSLP
Temp => Temperature
TPW => Total Precipitable Water
TCW => Total Cloud Water
MSLP => Mean Sea Level Pressure

 

 
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

saw this on twitter so thought I would post it in here its stratospheric waves on venus it goes into it a little in the article

 

Discovery Space â€@Discovery_Space 47m

Mountains on Venus Make Waves in the Sky http://a-eng.in/1dLsCk8  by @JPMajor pic.twitter.com/7rzdqfvT3B

 

post-18233-0-75259300-1389669193_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Impressive reverse zonal flow at day 8 approaching 10hpa north of 80 degrees on Berlin this morning. Tbh, by day 7, the strat zonal winds are getting to the speeds where they are becoming irrelevant re restricting the trop patterns???

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

And more importantly we are no longer at T+15 days, the relative warming is getting closer.

Looking at the likely upper PV location in ten to fifteen days I think we should be looking for a tropospheric Northerly for The British Isles not an Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I do not think the warming in this 00z is going to cut it. We need higher temperatures on every next chart. Warming seems to be subsiding already at the end of this run. 

 

Yes, I think somehow we are going to need wave 2 activity following quickly if we are to completely finish the vortex off.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

06z shows what i mean: warm, warmer, warmest!

 

 

Yes, was just about to post it, that's a lovely run, cant help feeling if we could get to that situation then theres a chance of an SSW, however, we need to see it coming into a nearer timeframe and see it more consistently modelled.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

Yes, was just about to post it, that's a lovely run, cant help feeling if we could get to that situation then theres a chance of an SSW, however, we need to see it coming into a nearer timeframe and see it more consistently modelled.

 

Posted Image

 

Yep, we need consistency!

 

Looking good at 1hPa.

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

Lars from our Dutch/Belgian forum "weerwoord.be" made some interesting GEFS output again. The ensemble below shows zonal winds according to the 00z GEFS. The operational run is obviously one of the members with high mean zonal winds. Next update will be similar graphs of the (much better) 06z run.



Posted Image

 

 

06 GEFS 10 hPa - 60°N mean zonal wind

 

Posted Image

 

06 GEFS 10 hPa temperature over the north pole (90°N)

Posted Image

 

 

Link to the forum thread (ancient set-up, scroll down for Lars' addition).

http://www.weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1938536&tid=1938536&exp=1

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Yep, we need consistency!

 

Looking good at 1hPa.

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

Yes we want to see the warming continue at the top for as long as possible, I like bluearmy's analogy about the toilet, we want to ensure its all heat and high heights that keep getting flushed down there as we all know how hard it is to get cold spells in, so to give ourselves the best chance of getting a good tropospheric pattern, we want as many bites at the cherry as possible, as long as the strat is favourable we always have a chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

hi everyone. i understand the basics of ozone levels and the BDC - i.e. increased ozone transportation from tropics to pole can increase chance of strat warmings by reducing thermal gradient and reducing polar westerlies. (please correct me if i'm wrong)

 

I spotted a small, but notable above average area of ozone in our part of the world currently.  What i dont really understand when monitoring these levels is exactly how much ozone is really favourable and where? Any advice on this would be much appreciated Posted Image

 

Heres the current ozone:

 

post-15445-0-32946100-1389702205_thumb.g

 

And current deviation from norm:

 

post-15445-0-48030300-1389702273_thumb.g

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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Interitus, is this shown on some form of chart/graph anywhere - would be interesting to see it visually? Also, do you know if SSW's have followed similar combined amplitude incidences (e.g. 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th highest etc). Sorry if I'm being a dunce, sincere question from thick Northerner!

 

The main component of this was the wave 2 which reached its 10th highest amplitude as can be seen here - http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/z2n_10_2013_merra.pdf

 

Don't know if there is a chart which shows wave 1+2 so I cobbled one together -

 

post-2779-0-09053200-1389703450_thumb.gi

 

Do SSW follow these combined amplitude incidences? Well the short answer is yes.....and no. It depends on the state of the vortex which usually grows strongly in the first half of the winter. As the winds increase so does the wave height, with a lag time. The waves rise up the edge of the vortex and as they break - or overturn the air, they remove vorticity, mixing it with the stratospheric air at lower latitudes. This is often considered the preconditioning phase - the stripping of vorticity leaves a steep gradient defining the edge of the vortex visible on potential vorticity charts, the vortex may become more compact and as a result the stratosphere jet shifts northwards.

With low GP wave values such as seen in the southern hemisphere, the vortex can usually ride out the winter relatively undisturbed so higher values are needed, but their effectiveness depends on persistence in terms of duration and location and the vortex condition such as vertical wind shear. These factors determine where the wave breaking occurs - either 'locally' at low altitudes near the point of forcing which may protect the higher altitude vortex, or 'remotely' at high levels of the stratosphere.

In itself the total GPW is a poor predictor of SSW, though becomes slightly better as the winter progresses. For the closest 15 day GPW profiles to 09/01/14 the chance of an SSW within 30 days is about 21%.

But there appears a greater than 50% chance of greatly reduced 10 mb zonal wind of less than 10m/s and 80% of the 10mb wind being less than at 150mb which indicates a good chance of a possible minor warming - a few examples have been mentioned recently on this thread as being related to these (hesitate to say caused by) eg. Jan/Feb 2012, Feb 91, Feb 86 (5th coldest Feb CET, colder than Dec 2010). Indeed there are researchers looking at warmings and their effects and considering whether there are better alternatives to the rather arbitrary 10mb reversed wind.

Incidentally, the closest profiles of 15-day 60°N eddy heat flux at 100mb and 70mb to 11/01/14 were followed by SSW within 30 days on between 65-75% of occasions.

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

The GFS 12z shows the warming much more pronounced than weve seen recently, and its coming closer with it @360hrs :

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

The most notable thing for me is that as an overall trend, the more we reel this warming in to the closer timeframes the more impressive it is beginning to look. Taking a starting point of T+384 from Saturday, rolling forward to T+312 today:

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Still some variation of course over time but overall it's beginning to look more and more impressive at least temperature wise.

 

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Something also notable is that the core of the vortex remains very cold and over Greenland.

I suppose, if this warming materialises it will also lead to a rise in temperatures even at the vortex core but we will be looking well into February for that.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The most notable thing for me is that as an overall trend, the more we reel this warming in to the closer timeframes the more impressive it is beginning to look. Taking a starting point of T+384 from Saturday, rolling forward to T+312 today:

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Still some variation of course over time but overall it's beginning to look more and more impressive at least temperature wise.

 

SK

 

 

Yes - best yet and consistent for a few runs, I think we can safely say some sort of displacement warming is likely now, whether it ends up followed by wave  2 activity causing a split, whether it ends up been strong enough to propagate and disrupt the trop vortex and whether it ends up an ssw, all questions that will be answered in time.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

Lars from our Dutch/Belgian forum "weerwoord.be" made some interesting GEFS output again. The ensemble below shows zonal winds according to the 00z GEFS. The operational run is obviously one of the members with high mean zonal winds. Next update will be similar graphs of the (much better) 06z run.

Posted Image

 

 

06 GEFS 10 hPa - 60°N mean zonal wind

 

Posted Image

 

06 GEFS 10 hPa temperature over the north pole (90°N)

Posted Image

 

 

Link to the forum thread (ancient set-up, scroll down for Lars' addition).

http://www.weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1938536&tid=1938536&exp=1

comparing those ncep graphs with ecm's op from yesterday has ncep much to fast with the flow. at day 10, we should be around 25 m/s. if the gfs op was slower, i could blame gefs poor upper strat visibility. any thoughts recretos ?? Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

A big warming is showing up again and on this run it looks like it manages to get a foothold to the North of the colder air as well, rather than a west vs east setup seen on previous runs. GFS has been consistently showing this for a few days now, looks promising

post-20773-0-69295000-1389739960_thumb.p

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Not too far from reversal at 1hPa.......

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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi everyone

 

source: weather centre

stratosphere trifecta signals brutally cold february 2014 ahead

 

Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

 

hi everyone

 

source: weather centre

stratosphere trifecta signals brutally cold february 2014 ahead

 

Posted Image

 

 

MagnificoPosted Image

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