Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[Nick B]

Hi Recretos, any trophospheric forcing which plays a role in the behaviour of the stratosphere seems fair game to me.  We have of course assigned names to the different levels of the atmosphere, but nature doesn't do this.  Yes, these levels behave in different ways, but the interplay between them is fascinating, as is the bewildering array of factors governing the behaviour.  I am sure I speak for many when I say your judgment, as well as chiono's, in highlighting and discussing these interplays is much appreciated.  Just keep going! 

[phil nw.]

Yes agree with that.All parts of the big picture Recretos.

The linkage between Mountain torques and the upper Atmosphere in relation to wave breaking events is an important factor.

It's fascinating trying to piece all this together.

Keep up with your excellent posting as we are all trying to understand and learn more.

[aginob]

hi to all

 

for recretos

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2881764

 

for me this is not a problemyour posting including models ( stratosphere ... northern hemisphere) is amazing

I say again respectfully ( respect )

===

and I apologize again to all user herebecause my english ... it is not so perfect

 

gino

===

off topic

usa ... very frigid arctic air ( polar vortex ) coming soon ( -40°C )

source: accuweather and weather center

Edited January 2, 2014 by aginob

[Snowman.]

Interesting 12z

 

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting 12z

 

 

 

 

I don't like it - no split.

[cooling climate]

Judging by the charts you have shown Recretos it does look a + EAMT event but earlier

strat charts at the 1mb level certainly gave the impression (to me anyway) that the warming

was from the Tropics moving ne across America and on up across the pole to join with

wave activity from eastern Asia.

The 12z GFS run is now out and another take on the warming. I suppose until we get into

the semi- reliable time frame t240 or so then we can expect these fluctuations in the runs.

[The PIT]

How reliable are these models at T240 in reality?  The normal runs from these models for the surface pressure you wouldn't trust at t240.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wrong thread!

Edited January 2, 2014 by CreweCold

[Gael_Force]

I don't like it - no split.

 

Isn't there the danger of a split leaving a large portion of vortex to our NW as the pattern currently stands/was shown a couple of days ago?

We did well with a displacement last winter/spring and it might be a better way forward to concentrate all wave activity from one direction rather than multiple weaker warmings.

[feb1991blizzard]

Isn't there the danger of a split leaving a large portion of vortex to our NW as the pattern currently stands/was shown a couple of days ago?

We did well with a displacement last winter/spring and it might be a better way forward to concentrate all wave activity from one direction rather than multiple weaker warmings.

 

 

But the charts posted don't really show any significant displacement, just a stretching, I would far rather have this chart verify http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010106&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 than this http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=348, going forward I would feel we would be far more likely to see an SSW with the first chart than the second.

[weatherjunkie]

To expand slightly about one of the points recretos makes is the +MT torque event projected by day 10. Even if this doesn't work out too well this go-round, there are indications (outside of dynamical model forecasts) that the MJO will fire into phases 6-7-8 by the third week of January and these phases increase the likelihood of a +EAMT event. So we could be seeing several round of warming coming from there this month. 

[cooling climate]

But the charts posted don't really show any significant displacement, just a stretching, I would far rather have this chart verify http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010106&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384 than this http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010212&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=348, going forward I would feel we would be far more likely to see an SSW with the first chart than the second.

I would agree. A split or direct warming to the the north of the UK would be a bulls eye with regard to a cold

pattern developing for Europe and the UK with a probable north then northeasterly airflow with Scandinavian

heights developing.

Below is the wave 1 warming in January 91 above the UK that almost certainly led to the

bitter easterly that followed in February 91. The QBO was in negative phase which may

have aided this or just delayed the propagation of the warming and subsequent pattern.

You can see from the 10mb temperature chart very cold temps the other side of the

pole (-80c)with temperatures our side of the pole up to -10c.

Edited January 2, 2014 by cooling climate

[Cloud 10]

I know this is nursery level stuff compared to what most of you discuss but has anyone ever seen the 30mb temperature profilve get as low as it has been recently?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

 

Pretty much record low values at the moment and a huge temperature anomaly at 30mb

for December just gone.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I would agree. A split or direct warming to the the north of the UK would be a bulls eye with regard to a cold

pattern developing for Europe and the UK with a probable north then northeasterly airflow with Scandinavian

heights developing.

Below is the wave 1 warming in January 91 above the UK that almost certainly led to the

bitter easterly that followed in February 91. The QBO was in negative phase which may

have aided this or just delayed the propagation of the warming and subsequent pattern.

Jan 91 warming.gif

You can see from the 10mb temperature chart very cold temps the other side of the

pole (-80c)with temperatures our side of the pole up to -10c.

 

Cheers, just to clarify, I have been told that we didn't achieve an SSW in 91 but on my list its says we did but not until February, that delay you talk about must have not been too great as I remember the initial undercut that brought the Easterly happened in January, we had snow in the midlands on the last Thursday in Jan from the Trough digging south, also, where are those stratosphere reanalysis charts from please?

 

I know you can build monthly anomalies at any atmospheric level on the NOAA compositing site but I like the individual day charts.

Edited January 2, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[cooling climate]

Cheers, just to clarify, I have been told that we didn't achieve an SSW in 91 but on my list its says we did but not until February, that delay you talk about must have not been too great as I remember the initial undercut that brought the Easterly happened in January, we had snow in the midlands on the last Thursday in Jan from the Trough digging south, also, where are those stratosphere reanalysis charts from please?

 

I know you can build monthly anomalies at any atmospheric level on the NOAA compositing site but I like the individual day charts.

I got that chart off of the Berlin site. Click on stratosphere analysis. This page tells you about

the archive charts that they have but you have to register to see them.

I tried but did not get anywhere. On the left of where it says to register there is an example

and this is where I got the chart from.

I would love to see the archived charts myself.

[Duane S.]

Cheers, just to clarify, I have been told that we didn't achieve an SSW in 91 but on my list its says we did but not until February, that delay you talk about must have not been too great as I remember the initial undercut that brought the Easterly happened in January, we had snow in the midlands on the last Thursday in Jan from the Trough digging south, also, where are those stratosphere reanalysis charts from please?

 

I know you can build monthly anomalies at any atmospheric level on the NOAA compositing site but I like the individual day charts.

 

1990/91 is one year I have been looking at closely in relation to this season for a while now.

 

December / (projected) January was similar in respect to a classic strong Wave 1 / Wave 2 alternating pattern taking place. Early Jan, low down in the Stratosphere there was quite a marked zonal wind decrease but notably up at 10mb (I haven't got the data for higher up) it didn't respond as agressively. Late month and into Feb , wave activity appears to have done the trick with a near but not quite SSW taking place.

 

At 30mb, where the temperature has been low to very low all month, a very similar minimum temp profile to that level with Dec'90 which averaged -82.7 up against December'13 which averaged -83.3.

 

Westerly - Easterly transistion QBO as well although 1990-91 was running a bit ahead of where our's is.

 

ENSO state also neutral, though leading to a moderate Nino against us probably heading more Nina later next year.

 

 

Tropospherically speaking, running through archive charts December '90 into Jan '91 it is remarkably similar as well, add to that the following...

July/August 1990: Very warm

September 1990: Cool

October 1990: Warm

November 1990: Dry and sunny

December 1990: Unsettled, very stormy through Xmas

 

Swap 1990 with 2013 and every month matches. So bearing in mind the decent late Jan first half of February of 1991, maybe all this waiting will be worth it!

Edited January 2, 2014 by s4lancia

[Interitus]

Cheers, just to clarify, I have been told that we didn't achieve an SSW in 91 but on my list its says we did but not until February, that delay you talk about must have not been too great as I remember the initial undercut that brought the Easterly happened in January, we had snow in the midlands on the last Thursday in Jan from the Trough digging south, also, where are those stratosphere reanalysis charts from please?

 

 

Technically it was a minor warming rather than an SSW - according to MERRA data the 60°N 10mb wind fell to 3.69m/s on 05/02 but didn't quite reverse. Despite this the effects were typical of an SSW with AO, NAO, CET etc comparing well with other examples.

Here is a graph of the 60°N zonal wind speeds in m/s for different stratospheric levels, combined with the resulting NCEP troposphere AO (right hand scale). The thing to notice here is the -ve AO occurring after a short lag in response to periods of negative vertical wind shear - for example when higher altitude wind at 10mb is less strong than at lower levels.

The response appears particularly noticeable just around the time of the minimum stratosphere NAM of -2/22 on 28/01 (from Martineau)

At these times the stratosphere is thought to be reflecting wave energy rather than absorbing it. Hydrostatic responses and wave coupling do usually occur within a matter of days compared to the gradual ongoing downwelling of zonal wind anomalies.

 

Edited January 2, 2014 by Interitus

[feb1991blizzard]

1990/91 is one year I have been looking at closely in relation to this season for a while now.

 

December / (projected) January was similar in respect to a classic strong Wave 1 / Wave 2 alternating pattern taking place. Early Jan, low down in the Stratosphere there was quite a marked zonal wind decrease but notably up at 10mb (I haven't got the data for higher up) it didn't respond as agressively. Late month and into Feb , wave activity appears to have done the trick with a near but not quite SSW taking place.

 

At 30mb, where the temperature has been low to very low all month, a very similar minimum temp profile to that level with Dec'90 which averaged -82.7 up against December'13 which averaged -83.3.

 

Westerly - Easterly transistion QBO as well although 1990-91 was running a bit ahead of where our's is.

 

ENSO state also neutral, though leading to a moderate Nino against us probably heading more Nina later next year.

 

 

Tropospherically speaking, running through archive charts December '90 into Jan '91 it is remarkably similar as well, add to that the following...

July/August 1990: Very warm

September 1990: Cool

October 1990: Warm

November 1990: Dry and sunny

December 1990: Unsettled, very stormy through Xmas

 

Swap 1990 with 2013 and every month matches. So bearing in mind the decent late Jan first half of February of 1991, maybe all this waiting will be worth it!

 

 

Didn't have all the strat data but yes, its the one im thinking of and have been since very early on. The AO returned a + monthly value in both Dec 90 and Jan 91 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table although you wonder how looking at the daily data ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.aao.index.b790101.current.ascii

 

 

Its a pity meteociel or NCEP don't do NH height / temp reanalysis right the way up top so that you can run them side by side for every year.

Edited January 2, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Recretos]

I would love to see the archived charts myself.

 

Not to take anything away from the FU-Berlin archive, but I think you have very comparable data and analyses in the freely accessible NCEP R2 reanalysis. Or perhaps even better with my favourite, the ECMWF ERA reanalysis project. The tricky part about the ERA data, is that you also have to register and the data is in gridded format only (at least as far as I know), so you cant make online plots like on the PSD site for the NCEP dataset. You have to plot the ECMWF reanalysis data manually.

 

As for the 1991 winter: I was again beaten to it, this time by s4lancia and Interitus, but nonetheless I will present some random stuff from ERA-Interim, since my post was already almost complete at the time they posted.

 

Temperature at 10mb peaked on 10.1. 00z, at -1°C. It is worth noting how the wave 1 was of Atlantic origin, instead of the more common Pacific origin.

The mean zonal wind at 10mb was never reversed at 60N. There was a reverse in February at higher latitudes. 

 

 

  

 

  

 

The mesosphere was also "boiling" from all the likely wave breaking and energy released. There are indications of a possible EAMT in mid-late December 1990. But exact calculations would have to be made to be totally sure. 

 

   

 

 

Now finding some tropospheric responses is another thing. As you can see, there were strong height rises in the begging of February, with a quasi-wave 2 burst, briefly splitting the vortex. So looking at the timeseries, the early January warming was not really the main direct driver for the February winter, as far as the stratosphere role is considered, because the vortex pretty much reformed after that and there were only brief waves until the late January wave burst. 

 

   

 

The 500mb Azore ridge went all the was up to Scandinavia, so I plotted the timeseries for the 15E-30E region. It began in the troposphere, went up into the stratosphere, and came "back down" on steroids and at the same time preparing the "terrain" for the February UK winter mayhem (as for its part in it at least).

 

  

 

 

 

I will wrap this up since the amount of graphics is getting out of hand, and this topic is called "2013/2014 stratosphere watch" and not "1991 case study". And besides, colleagues before me have already pointed out some of the other important stuff about the 1991 winter. 

 

 

 

Its a pity meteociel or NCEP don't do NH height / temp reanalysis right the way up top so that you can run them side by side for every year.

 

 

As I said already, if you need any specific day-to-day or month-to-month comparisons from 1000mb to 1mb (and some to 0.1mb), just say so. I can plot it and I'm sure it would be interesting for others too.

 

Best regards.

Edited January 2, 2014 by Recretos

[Ruben Amsterdam]

EC (02-01) features a (short-lived/not-quite-there-yet) split at 10hpa at +168hrs with the vortex being able to recover afterwards. GFS00z (03-01) shows a similar picture. After the "split" the vortex reforms again, only to split again at the end of the run. 

 

 

EC looking pretty consistent at the end of runs. Only difference I can spot is the small warming near Greenland present in the most recent run (left). 

 

 

 

Now, Recretos, I know 2009 featured a really intense warming and split type SSW. To what extend is the current situation comparable to the situation in 2009?

Edited January 3, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam

[cooling climate]

Seem odd the way the 0z GFS run showed the vortex almost sblits at the 10mb

and 30mb levels yet the warming has downgraded in the last couple of days.

Although the warming is only one part of the story.

The 06z GFS just out and the vortex looks a lot more robust again although we

are talking about the tail end of the output so changes expected.

Good to see the warming coming into range on the ECM charts. Perhaps these

charts will offer more consistency than what we have been seeing from the GFS.

 

Recretos the NCEP R2 reanalysis site you mention I looked it up but you have to

register an account citing business, institution, affiliations etc. Is this the correct

link.

Edited January 3, 2014 by cooling climate

[picog]

I see the 30hPa temps are still extremely low. Any lower, and the graph will need a new Y-axis!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[aginob]

hi to all

 

indici teleconnettivi ( teleconnessione atmosferica ) => atmospheric teleconnection indices

http://www.vallepelignameteo.org/Modelli/Telex/IndiciTeleconnettivi.html

[cooling climate]

After viewing the Berin strat charts of the ECM I have renewed confidence we will see

the stronger warming coming back on the GFS runs. Hopefully the 12z run this afternoon

will be a step in that direction.

[Ruben Amsterdam]

After viewing the Berin strat charts of the ECM I have renewed confidence we will see

the stronger warming coming back on the GFS runs. Hopefully the 12z run this afternoon

will be a step in that direction.

After a rather underwhelming period around +144hrs, GFS12z is ramping up the warming from +216 onwards. Nothing is decided yet. 

At +300 the 1mb-split is back.

 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam