east pacific Tropical Storm Octave

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 15E formed overnight, directly south of the southern tip of Baja California. Since, it has strengthened, and become Tropical Storm Octave, with winds of 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC, with bands wrapping into the north and south quadrants. There is not a huge amount of covection over the LLCC, but the convection from the bands should rectify this soon. Octave has about another 24 hours over warm water and under low shear. Octave is expected to intensify a little more before shear increases significantly and waters cool along track. This should bring about a swift weakening, and dissipation shortly after.

 

Octave is currently moving to the northwest. A turn to the north then northeast towards Baja California is expected as an upper level low causes a weakness in the steering ridge. As shear and cooler waters await Octave west of Baja California, Octave should not reach here as a tropical storm, or even a tropical depression for that matter, but will increase rainfall here in a few days time.

 

[Somerset Squall]

The structure of Octave has changed considerably since this morning. Convection in the bands has completely dissipated, and instead some very deep convection has developed over the LLCC, and formed a ring around an apparent eye feature. Winds have increased to 55kts. Octave has another 12 hours to strengthen, but it may not as dry air is very close to the northwest quadrant. Tomorrow, shear will rise, driving this dry air into the core of Octave. Additionally, sea temps are much cooler on the northward track. Therefore, Octave will dissipate before reaching Baja California.

[Somerset Squall]

Octave has weakned today as expected, and winds are down to 45kts. Shear has risen, and the LLCC is partially exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. However, Baja California are receiving very heavy rains from Octave, and a tropical storm warning has been issued as Octave is expected to remain intact long enough to provide storm force winds to the coast. Due to the strong shear, Octave should dissipate at landfall.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Octave Bears Down on Mexico’s Baja California

 

Tropical Storm Octave weakened as it bore down on Baja California in Mexico, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Octave was about 85 miles (137 kilometers) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, the center said in an advisory at 5 p.m. New York time. It was moving north-northeast at 9 mph.

 

“Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Octave could become a tropical depression on Tuesday by the time it nears the Baja California Peninsula,†the Miami-based hurricane center said. Tropical storm warnings, meaning winds of at least 39 mph, heavy rains and surf are expected within 24 hours, were posted from Santa Fe to Punta Abreojos in Mexico. As much as 3 to 6 inches (8 to 15 centimeters) of rain may fall, with some areas getting as much as 8 inches, according to the center.

 

“The primary threat from Octave will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain,†Stacy Stewart, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, said in a forecast analysis. The center is also tracking Tropical Storm Priscilla, which has top winds of 45 mph and is 630 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Priscilla is moving north and isn’t a threat to land.

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-14/tropical-storm-octave-bears-down-on-mexico-s-baja-california.html

 

[Somerset Squall]

Octave, surprisingly, survived it's trip over the Baja California Peninsula and emerged into the Gulf Of California. The LLCC has moved inland again, this time in mainland Mexico. The rugged terrain, coupled with high shear, has finally destroyed the circulation, and Octave is no longer a tropical cyclone. Heavy rains may continue for a day or two in the area.