scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Northernlights]

Really wild afternoon now with some violent gusts and driving rain . Windchill very high at temperature of 3.5c currently.

[Hairy Celt]

Really wild afternoon now with some violent gusts and driving rain . Windchill very high at temperature of 3.5c currently.

 

Yes. Cancelled today's stroll! Cats crossing their legs. Stove on. Just drawing the curtains.  A bitter night ahead but not cold enough for snow.

[blitzen]

Anyone else get this in an e mail?

 

http://fsmail03.orange.co.uk/webmail/en_GB/read.html?FOLDER=SF_INBOX&IDMSG=77&ORIGIN=SYSTEM_FOLDER

 

Madden appears to have the hump with Corbyn. Don't know how I got it.

Certainly one for blowing his own trumpet!

Edited November 20, 2013 by Blitzen

[over_the_rainbow]

I cant see it Blitzen?

[Buriedundersnow]

Anyone else get this in an e mail?

 

http://fsmail03.orange.co.uk/webmail/en_GB/read.html?FOLDER=SF_INBOX&IDMSG=77&ORIGIN=SYSTEM_FOLDER

 

Madden appears to have the hump with Corbyn. Don't know how I got it.

Certainly one for blowing his own trumpet!

 

you will probably have to copy and paste it in here

[blitzen]

you will probably have to copy and paste it in here

Can you explain please BUS?  Flaming typical!  just after I was ribbing Edo about  his link not working!

 

Will try and figure it out later......(got a hungry hubby!)

Edited November 20, 2013 by Blitzen

[edo]

Can you explain please BUS? Flaming typical! just after I was ribbing Edo about his link not working!

Will try and figure it out later......(got a hungry hubby!)

Lol it's ok I don't take offence...my phone does not allow putting linked URL's in.... I would always do it properly from my laptop but assumed u all would know how to copy and paste

Copy the links and paste them where you type website addresses and they will work...just tested my earlier link and it certainly did

Edited November 20, 2013 by edodfc

[Buriedundersnow]

Can you explain please BUS?  Flaming typical!  just after I was ribbing Edo about  his link not working!

 

Will try and figure it out later......(got a hungry hubby!)

 

go into the e-mail and highlight all the writing then right click on it choose copy then come to post in here and right click again then choose paste and it should paste right into the post box then post it

[jon_d1983]

Well the rain in Aberdeen is torrential and made 100 times worse with the strong northern wind

[blitzen]

 but assumed u all would know how to copy and paste

 

Lol touche!

I

[Buriedundersnow]

heres another little video

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOonWtOuiWg&feature=youtube_gdata

[blitzen]

The name calling between these two is really getting to be quite tiresome!

 

 

On Wednesday, 20 November 2013, 11:22, "info@exactaweather.com" <info@exactaweather.com> wrote:

Why can't they just admit they were the ones who was wrong!

 

November will now come in below the seasonal average overall, and it is likely that there will be some further snow events over the coming weeks and into December (all as forecast 7/8 months in advance for exact dates to subscribers).

All those who forecast a mild November and December only recently (most if not all forecasters inc Met Office) with no mention of cold or snow whatsoever, are now having to forecast what they said wouldn't happen! A large amount of other weather companies/forecasters tried to ridicule my long-range forecast for November and the winter ahead, for much colder than average temperatures with widespread snow events (as their beloved models did not agree). They are now trying to use terms about "six inches of snow nationwide" for this week and "ridiculously low temperatures", that have never been used or quoted in any article piece from Exacta Weather/or to our subscribers for this period (please read my exact quotes in articles, not headlines).

Details of my forecasting record and overall accuracy including proof are available to view in the link below, which will also contain the correct details of the summer heatwave and autumn forecast shortly (I do also admit to any forecasting errors, something that other forecasters will not) @

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

 

The picture will also be turning much drier than of late throughout the remainder of this week, with some occasional wintry showers at times in some parts to the north and east of the country. However, it will still be very cold and the development of widespread frosts and stubborn fog patches will become an issue for many parts of the country.

 

The cold and wintry conditions are also likely to prevail throughout the remainder of November and into December, before some potentially record-breaking conditions in terms of cold weather and snow, that are likely to develop in the early part of the new year.

 

LOUD CLAIMS FROM OTHER FORECASTERS!!! - IMPORTANT

The usual claims of 'charlatans', 'negative skill' and 'misleading' have been doing the rounds from a certain forecaster once again.

Unfortunately, there is only one person being misleading to all his clients/followers. I will provide an examples

The forecaster in question claims the above in reference to myself, but then also goes on to claim that he was the only one to forecast the coldest December in 100 years + the flood riddled summer of 2012

MISLEADING AND INCORRECT! - I forecast this event before anyone else, for which I featured in many news publications and on BBC One in December 2010.

FORECASTER PROVES MET OFFICE WRONG AGAIN!

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18th September – over a month earlier than the Met office confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010, and why 2011/2012 was expected to be worse still.

http://www.emergentwisdom.com/index.php/other-musings/37-science/50-sir-paul-nurse-abandons-scientific-principles-on-becoming-president-of-royal-society

I also forecast a potentially flood riddled summer for 2012 in advance of anyone else + dates (February 2012 - YouTube)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78kbN-zAlms&feature=share&list=UUHwOa1-DZfoNCIGUvKG2_6g

All other correct weather events predicted before any public statement from this forecaster (as he will try to claim that he said it privately somewhere else), are available with proof in the link below for myself:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

Thank you for those who shared the information with me. Unfortunately, I think this might be sour grapes from a forecaster who doesn't know my work very well or is quite misleading to his followers. Maybe he missed this upcoming cold period and forecast something else?

It is also quite misleading to question my reliability, when he referred to my long-range forecasts in one of his own comments as "useful on average" earlier in the year.

I have provided proof that I have forecast all these weather events publicly in advance of this forecaster. I have also provided information about forthcoming weather events in reference to this winter, which he was hoping to promote in his much shorter-range attempted forecasts.

I guarantee that this forecaster will be putting out tweets about mega snow events and severe cold throughout this winter - GUARANTEED! - But we already know this from my forecast information!!!

 

Regards,

 

James Madden (Long-range weather & climate forecaster - ExactaWeather.com)

 

 

 

 

This is what probably gave him the hump:

 

http://www.skeptical-science.com/critical-thinking/uk-weather-report-lots-snow-coming/

 

They are both as bad as each other as far as I am concerned.  Interesting to note though that Corbyn included Netweather (along with others) in his list of 'Wannabees'  (in the original statement.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks BUS & Edo!

Edited November 20, 2013 by Blitzen

[Polarlow]

Very windy here in Dundee..... almost Hurricane strength !!! I`m expecting damage here in Tayside !!!!

[Norrance]

Very windy here in Dundee..... almost Hurricane strength !!! I`m expecting damage here in Tayside !!!!

It certainly is. Just back from dropping my daughter in the Ferry. Lots of bits and pieces blowing around. Today almost 3 degrees warmer than yesterday with a max of 5.9C but didn't, feel it with the wind. Some hefty showers too. Mate from Blair tells me that Glenshee got a real pasting today with constant showers coming straight down the valley. Road blocked since this morning. More recently snow gates also closed at the Lecht too.

[Buriedundersnow]

here is a cold jan 47 video

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbaEJC_eLNw

That high doesn't want to sink, it's resolutely sticking to wanting to prove that it's not the Titanic after all  

 

We're then stuck in no-man's land of no raging zonality but no deep cold.

 

would rather that than it chucking down wi rain at least we will see some cold frosty nights

[Highland Snow]

Well fellow kilters I had a trip up the A9 today as far as Kingussie (70 miles North of Perth) and here is my report:

 

Freezing level this morning (07.30 - 09.00) at about 1500 feet: this evening (17.30 - 19.00) at about 1200 feet.

 

Snow lying North of House of Bruar at road level but not on road. Snow on road North of Trinafour as far as Dalwhinnie then nothing again.

 

Hills around Dalnaspidal/Drumochter have appearance of caster sugar so just a skiff really.

 

Blizzard blowing tonight travelling home especially at Drumochter/Dalwhinnie.

 

Nice to see and drive through my first snow this Winter but nothing spectacular.

[Highland Snow]

Max. Temp. today +6.3C at 11.33. Currently +4.5C/-0.1C.

[blitzen]

here is a cold jan 47 video

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbaEJC_eLNw

I was amazed that those charts were available! There's us all on  Netweather chasing one type of high or another to get a decent cold spell and during that event, all 4 types were there sometimes at the same time! Arctic, Scandy, Russian and Greenland. I can't see us ever getting something like that again. Simply amazing.

[Ravelin]

Absolutely foul night out there with heavy rain/sleet showers and a strong wind. A waste of a good northerly feed of showers too with all that nice snow falling in the pre-thawed form. Oh well, dry, cold and frosty for a week won't be too bad I suppose. 

[Cheggers]

Clear but wild night with a raw feel. Sister was reporting snaw just outside Mansfield earlier, but too wet to settle.

[Buriedundersnow]

posted this in the winter thread as well its just a thought after looking through so many charts lately

 

one thing I will say after going through so many charts and making the videos from what I am seeing in the models just now we still look in a pattern conducive to high latitude blocking.

 

I may be only looking from one angle with going through so many blocked winters but that could also be a plus point to go with my post.

 

still looks like blocking could pop up in the charts at short notice at any time to me anyway.

[A Winter's Tale]

A decent day with the highlight being a spectacular sunset with the remains of shower clouds having a wintry, orange reflection of the setting sun. A decent wintry looking sky with some scattered and thin strips of cloud - quite a windy evening with occasionally strong gusts. Looking settled for much of the next 5-10 days with some of lowest maximum values of the season so far - although crucial details regarding fog, cloud and clear skies associated with the high pressure is yet to be confirmed. Regarding further snow prospects this month, at the moment it seems pretty unlikely to achieve another shot at arctic air but anything can pop up in the models at this evening (the GFS) in particular has shown the surge of arctic air into Europe next week edging slightly closer to the British Isles due to westward progress of the high pressure on each run. However, it does seem that the high would sink but at least this should give us some fairly seasonal and benign winter conditions although it may turn less cold later with more atlantic air getting into the mix. I suppose this is better than 'a mild zonal outlook', however an outlook cold zonality would be nice to have by the start of December. The last frame of the ECM 12z also exhibits the possibility of a brief northerly incursion.

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 18z still has western Europe pretty chilly out to day 8 

 

ANOMOLIES CHART

 

 

NORMAL TEMPS

 

 

FORECAST TEMPS

 

Edited November 21, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BleakMidwinter]

after looking through so many charts lately

 

 

Thanks very much for taking the time to do all this - for the Vertical Learning Curve bods like me, it really helps to see these, and if I tried to extract the data myself, I'm pretty sure you'd never see me again in here and would have to visit me in my nice padded cell… It's appreciated!p.s. nae snaw, nae sign of snaw, but a nice bright clear crisp morning so I'm happy anyway!

[mistyqueen]

Horrible night, sleet and snizzle flung against the window, very windy. Dull and dreary here....a bit like my mood!