South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[kernowman]

I've just got back from Portreath beach, to be honest I was expected a bigger swell, tide was going out so not much chance to get some nice photos of the surf crashing into the pier.  Light rain has just started, and not really that windy at the moment.  Hope this doesn't turn into a damp squib.

[Zephyr]

Low is currently down to 992mb starting to fall pretty fast now have been watching all afternoon and will carry on watching it. 

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[dec10snow]

80mph wind gusts WILL cause damage, especially in urban areas like Bristol, no matter how brief it may last.

The thing I'm confused about, is Fergie is warning 50-70mph gusts, and maybe 80mph for a time, yet the MO are telling me I'll have 49mph max, doesn't seem to add up to me! Edited October 27, 2013 by dec10snow

[karlos1983]

So who's heading out later? I'm going to head out at about 11ish, to get to my destination before the worst winds arrive, going to be a long old night!

[AWD]

The thing I'm confused about, is Fergie is warning 50-60mph gusts, and maybe 80mph for a time, yet the MO are telling me I'll have 49mph max, doesn't seem to add up to me!

Is that on the Meto website/App?If it is then it might be a case that it hasn't been updated with the 12z data yet?

[Dorsetbred]

So who's heading out later? I'm going to head out at about 11ish, to get to my destination before the worst winds arrive, going to be a long old night!

Hengistbury Head will be a good place to get blown around a bit!

[AWD]

So who's heading out later? I'm going to head out at about 11ish, to get to my destination before the worst winds arrive, going to be a long old night!

I have to go to work at 04:00 in the morning. Got to go from Stoke Gifford - Westbury and then later in the morning from Westbury - Eastleigh.Could be an interesting shift.

[fergieweather]

 

Is that on the Meto website/App?If it is then it might be a case that it hasn't been updated with the 12z data yet?

We're using UKV now as coarser-scale models aren't resolving the mesoscale wind features in the backwash on pressure surge. UKV consistent in past 3 runs. Troubling. More on this in due course for my region especially.

[knocker]

Fairly grotty here.

[AWD]

Latest from the Met Office;

[Rustynailer]

Crowds of sightseers down Freshwater Bay an hour ago, great waves and lots of foam, it has gone in to the calm before the storm period now I think.

The wind has eased somewhat in the last hour.

[tinybill]

Latest from the Met Office;

image.jpg

all i  say for  us  in east  and south east  it could be 26   years  revisited  after looking  at that  map  its not  looking  good to say the  least

Edited October 27, 2013 by tinybill

[dec10snow]

Is that on the Meto website/App?If it is then it might be a case that it hasn't been updated with the 12z data yet?

 

Yes, from the app!

 

the attached image is for 12, 3 and 6 AM Monday morning!

[AWD]

Yes, from the app!the attached image is for 12, 3 and 6 AM Monday morning!

Ian's answered your query above mate plus maybe see if it updates after all 12z data is released later ?

[snowmadchrisuk]

The UKMO has it deeper on it's 12z output, 980 deepening to 975mb over central england...

[SunnySouthCoast]

I've just got back from Portreath beach, to be honest I was expected a bigger swell, tide was going out so not much chance to get some nice photos of the surf crashing into the pier.  Light rain has just started, and not really that windy at the moment.  Hope this doesn't turn into a damp squib.

 

The peak winds are not due to hit Cornwall until after midnight.

[dec10snow]

Ian's answered your query above mate plus maybe see if it updates after all 12z data is released later ?

Yeah, just seen, but not quite understanding what he's getting at? I really need to do some more learning!!

[karlos1983]

looks to be heading NE to me and deepening, Isobars are beggining to squeeze

 

1600hrs

 

1700hrs

 

[Chris K]

 

Yeah, just seen, but not quite understanding what he's getting at? I really need to do some more learning!!

 

 

 

Basically (and feel free to correct me if i am wrong), the models at their disposal can calculate outputs to a finer detail than most of the publicly available models we have access to. It will take into account many more factors such as local environment as well as many others.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Chris K

[AWD]

Yeah, just seen, but not quite understanding what he's getting at? I really need to do some more learning!!

Basically, and this is a broad brush amatuer reply as I'm not 100% sure either, the global models are designed more toward the longwave, synoptic pattern for the UK and northern hemisphere as a whole.We then have high res short term modelling such as NAE, NMM, UKV, ARPEGE, EURO4, MOGREPS etc for more inter-regional detailed analysis, which should include local environmental and tropographic nuances the GM's might not pick up on.Hence why there might be higher gusts quoted from professionals etc than what's displayed on public website/Apps etc. This is because your local tropographic nuances and other environmental conditions have been taken into account.Perhaps a tweet/e mail to the Met Office might be an idea as I can't guarantee I'm right of course.

[A.J]

quick heads up.....I'm going to open a new thread in around 15 mins for the evening/overnight period

 

 

cheers

AJ

[Dorsetbred]

all i  say for  us  in east  and south east  it could be 26   years  revisited  after looking  at that  map  its not  looking  good to say the  least

Are you in the correct thread?

[A.J]

ok everyone, new thread here -----------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78293-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-271013-1730z/

 

 

please finish off any posts now or alternatively post in the new thread

 

 

Locking this one in a couple of minutes

[dec10snow]

Basically, and this is a broad brush amatuer reply as I'm not 100% sure either, the global models are designed more toward the longwave, synoptic pattern for the UK and northern hemisphere as a whole.We then have high res short term modelling such as NAE, NMM, UKV, ARPEGE, EURO4, MOGREPS etc for more inter-regional detailed analysis, which should include local environmental and tropographic nuances the GM's might not pick up on.Hence why there might be higher gusts quoted from professionals etc than what's displayed on public website/Apps etc. This is because your local tropographic nuances and other environmental conditions have been taken into account.Perhaps a tweet/e mail to the Met Office might be an idea as I can't guarantee I'm right of course.

Okay, so basically it may be lower due to topography, geography etc? Thanks mate

[Andy Pepler]

this made me giggle