west pacific Typhoon Fitow

[Coast]

Another one out in the Philippines:

 

 

Tropical Depression Quedan hovers east of PH

 

 

Tropical depression Quedan continues to hover just east of the country Monday, September 30, state weather bureau PAGASA said. As of 10 am, the center of Quedan was estimated to be 800 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (12.0°N, 133.9°E), carrying maximum winds of 55 km/h near the center.

 

It is estimated to have moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall (5-7.5 mm/h) within its 300 km diameter. It is forecast to move north northwest at a speed of 7 km/h, and is expected to be around 900 km east of Virac, Catanduanes by Tuesday morning, October 1. By Wednesday morning, October 2, it is forecat to be 1,150 km east of Baler, Aurora.

 

Quedan is still far from land, and is not yet expected to affect the country.

 

 

 

http://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/40202-20130930-am-weather-update

 

 

TROPICAL Depression Quedan maintained its strength and is seen to move slowly away from the Philippine sea. At 10:00 a.m. Monday, Quedan was seen at 800 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar at 4:00 a.m. Monday.

 

Quedan packs winds of 55 kph near its center. It is forecast to move north northwestward slowly at 7 kph due to the ridge of high pressure. Forecasters at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Quedan might leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Tuesday morning.

 

The cyclone is expected to be at 900 km East of Virac, Catanduanes by Tuesday morning, and at 1,150 km East of Baler, Aurora by Wednesday morning. A day after that, Quedan should be 1,190 km East of Tuguegarao City, if it will not change its course. Quedan carries an estimated rainfall amount from 5 to 7.5 mm per hour (moderate – occasionally heavy) within its 300 km diameter.

 

The cyclone is not expected to directly affect the Philippines. Meanwhile, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao should expect cloudy skies with light to moderate rain and thunderstorms. "Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms," Pagasa said.

 

Pagasa also cautioned, "Moderate to occasionally strong winds coming from the Southwest to West will prevail over the eastern section of Visayas and of Mindanao and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to occasionally rough, elsewhere winds will be light to moderate coming from the Northeast to East will prevail over extreme Northern Luzon and from the Southwest over the rest of the country with slight to moderate seas."

 

 

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/breaking-news/2013/09/30/tropical-depression-quedan-moves-away-phl-slowly-306015

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 22W has formed well to the east of the Phillipines and north of Palau. Intensity is 25kts. The depression has a broad LLC, with some fragmented banding and slowly increasing centralised convection. Shear is low, and waters very warm, which should allow intensification over the coming days. Ridging to the east will force 22W on a northward track over the coming days, whilst a ridge much further north may bend the track towards the northwest by day 5. 22W is expected to mature into a typhoon on approach to the Japanese islands.

 

[Coast]

I think we are running the same system twice? could someone merge them please?

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77995-tropical-depression-quedan/

[Somerset Squall]

We are Coast, I've asked Pete to merge them when he's next back on LOL

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 22W is now Tropical Storm Fitow, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. The storm has developed banding features and some deeper convection over the LLCC. Fitow could become quite intense as the conditions ahead look very supportive for intensification.

[Coast]

Quedan/Fitow looks set to graze Okinawa and then move on to South Korea:

 

Tropical Storm FITOW: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

 

 

Tropical Depression 22W (QUEDAN) has strengthened into a storm...internationally named as FITOW (a name contributed by Micronesia and it means - Yapese name for a beautiful fragrant flower). FITOW (QUEDAN) is not likely to directly affect any part of the country. Residents and visitors along the southern islands of Japan should closely monitor the development of FITOW (Quedan). 

 

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS 

 

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Fitow (Quedan) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 785 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Samar or 865 km east of Virac, Catanduanes...currently moving north with a very slow forward speed of 05 km/hr towards Ryukyus. 

 

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. Fitow (Quedan) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Fitow (Quedan) is estimated to be extreme (300 mm).

 

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* 

 

TS Fitow (Quedan) is expected to move north-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Fitow (Quedan) will be moving over the north and eastern part of the Philippine Sea thru Thursday. 

 

TS Fitow (Quedan) will continue to gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) early Wednesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 185 km/hr on Thursday early morning. 

 

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves north-northwest across the Philippine Sea...about 820 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [5AM OCT 02: 16.6N 131.4E @ 130kph].

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon as it turns slightly to the north...about 975 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [5AM OCT 03: 19.6N 131.4E @ 185kph].

FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens further...as it continues moving north...about 645 km southeast of Okinawa, Okinawa [5AM OCT 04: 21.9N 131.7E @ 195kph]. 

 

http://weather.com.ph/announcements/tropical-storm-fitow-quedan-update-number-001

Edited October 1, 2013 by Coast

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow has slowly strengthened to 50kts. The storm has spiral banding features and plenty of deep convection. Fitow is expected to become a typhoon soon as it tracks northwards on the west side of a ridge to the east. This ridge is now forecasted to extend northwards towards Japan, keeping Fitow on a northward track throughout the next 5 days, perhaps with a slight westwards tendancy. After peaking at cat 3 status on SS scale, JTWC forecast Fitow to begin to transition into an extratropical cyclone south of South Korea as sea temps decline and shear rises on approach to the country.

 

[Coast]

Fitow is still on it's way to Okinawa:

 

 

Looks like it’s going to happen. Tropical Storm Fitow’s forecast track takes it 33 miles east of Kadena Air Base and through the heart of Okinawa early Saturday as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon, making for a wild, windy weekend. U.S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 for now; that will probably change early Thursday morning. Much-needed rain will accompany Fitow, 7 to 10 inches projected by Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight.

 

Here is the forecast wind timeline:

 

18 mph crosswinds, from 3 p.m. Thursday.

29 mph crosswinds, from 2 p.m. Friday.

Sustained 40 mph winds, from 6 p.m. Friday.

Sustained 58 mph winds, from 2 a.m. Saturday.

Peak winds, 104 mph sustained, 127 mph gusts, 10 a.m. Saturday.

Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 p.m. Saturday.

Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 2 a.m. Sunday.

 

Again, begin preparing now. Get your safe on, Okinawa. This looks like a mean one.

 

 

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/tropical-storm-22w-fitow-5-okinawa-bound-1.244576

 

Tropical Storm FITOW: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow intensified to 60kts overnight last night, but has failed to get any stronger, for now. Some dry air is wrapping into the western side of Fitow, disrupting development. Fitow should overcome this and become a typhoon tomorrow. The northward track looks likely to continue over the next day or so, and as Coast's post describes, this takes Fitow very near Okinawa. The track forecast has shifted west since I last posted, as ridging is expected to build more strongly north of Fitow. Models are in a fair amount of disagreement on this however. The latest JTWC track has Fitow moving northwestwards and making landfall in China instead of the northward track towards South Korea. Increasing shear and cooler sea temps should weaken Fitow prior to landfall.

[Coast]

 

 

Tropical storm Quedan (international name Fitow) slowed down as it hovered extreme Northern Luzon, the state weather bureau said Thursday. The storm was last observed 700 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes with maximum sustained winds of 105 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 35 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said. It is forecast to move north northwest at 11 kph.

 

“Western Visayas and the provinces of Cagayan, Zambales, Bataan and northern Palawan will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms,†Pagasa said. The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds coming from the northwest will prevail over the rest of Luzon as well as the southwest to west over the rest of the country.

 

 

 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/499835/quedan-slows-down-rain-in-metro-manila-parts-of-ph-pagasa#ixzz2gdv8iomH 

[crikey]

Could see  Typhoon FITOW clearly on the Global sat pic' tonight

Thought the west pacific looks quite fertile for cyclogenesis currently

 

snap

 

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow has become a typhoon, with winds now at 65kts. The typhoon has developed a large eye, flanked by excellent banding. The northern bands of Fitow are already bringing heavy rains to Okinawa, where they are likely to persist for several days as the typhoon passes close to the southwest. Fitow is still moving north but should turn northwest towards China as ridging builds to the north over South Korea. The timing of this turn is still a little uncertain. As shear remains low and waters warm over the next day or so, Fitow should intensify further. As Fitow approaches China, sea temperatures cool. At the same time, shear is expected to rise, so Fitow will weaken prior to landfall, currently progged to occur in 3-4 days time.

 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

Will it effect the Korean GP??

 

 

Korean Grand Prix 2013: organisers fear approach of Typhoon Fitow and winds in excess of 85 mph

 

Formula One arrived in Korea on Wednesday to be met by severe weather warnings, with Typhoon Fitow due to gather strength as it sweeps up through the East China Sea ahead of Sunday’s grand prix.

 

The latest weather forecast said on Wednesday night that the tropical storm, bringing with it torrential rain and winds in excess of 85mph, would just miss the Korean peninsula as it headed west towards mainland China, but the organisers will be holding their breath on race day all the same. The future of the Korean Grand Prix, now in its fourth year and won in 2012 by Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel, is very much up in the air with a packed 22-race schedule for the 2014 season potentially in need of a trim. A cancellation, or even a curtailed, rain-blighted grand prix, would do little to help advance Korea’s cause.

 

One of the least popular races on the calendar, the Korean International Circuit is located in a remote corner of the country, on reclaimed marshland hundreds of kilometres south of the capital Seoul. The area is so remote that the nearest port town of Mokpo lacks Western-style hotels, which means that most Formula One personnel, other than VIPs, are obliged to stay in ‘love motels’.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/motorsport/formulaone/10351418/Korean-Grand-Prix-2013-organisers-fear-approach-of-Typhoon-Fitow-and-winds-in-excess-of-85-mph.html

Typhoon FITOW: Probability of tropical storm winds to 72 hours lead

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow has strengthened to 80kts. Fitow will likely become a cat 2 or even a cat 3 on the SS scale before the typhoon moves over cooler water near the Chinese coast.

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow has continued to intensify and is now a 90kt cat 2. Fitow maintains a large eye with some fairly deep convection surrounding it. Fitow is likely peaking as shear will rise through this afternoon and sea temps will generally fall as Fitow approaches the coast of Eastern China. JTWC forecast Fitow to weaken to a tropical storm before landfall.

 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fitow maintains a large eye but the convection surrounding it is eroding under dry air and increasing shear. Nonetheless, Fitow is still a 75kt typhoon and will likely still be a typhoon at landfall tonight. Northern Taiwan will receive some rains from Fitow, but Eastern China are going to take the brunt of Fitow's weather.

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Fitow Slams Okinawa on Way to China Followed by Danas

 

Winds gusting to 55 meters per second (125 miles per hour) halted air traffic and caused power outages on Okinawa’s Miyakojima island as Typhoon Fitow blew through on course for northern Taiwan and China’s coast, with a second storm following close behind. Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau hoisted a typhoon warning as Fitow neared the island’s north coast today, while Chinese maritime authorities issued red alerts, the highest level, for storm tides and waves, Xinhua News Agency reported.

 

Fitow was heading west-northwest at about 20 kilometers per hour, some 220 miles (350 kilometers) north of Taipei at 1 p.m. Japan time, the Japan Meteorological Agency reported. Its central atmospheric pressure was 960 hectopascals with maximum sustained winds of 40 meters per second. Typhoon Danas, with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals, was about 650 miles southwest of Okinawa’s main island, moving west-northwest at 35 kilometers per hour, according to JMA. The storm is forecast to curve northward after passing over Okinawa tomorrow, brushing past the southwest coast of Kyushu and southern South Korea before turning northeast through the Sea of Japan.

 

Fitow caused blackouts of 6,800 homes in Miyakojima city, public broadcaster NHK reported. It also forced delays and cancellations of some flights to and from Okinawa, All Nippon Airways Co. and Japan Airlines Co. said on their websites today. Fitow is forecast to make landfall between east China’s Fujian and Zhejiang provinces tomorrow morning, Xinhua said. Storm tides are expected to rise as much as 2 meters above normal along the coast, Xinhua said.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-06/typhoon-fitow-slams-okinawa-on-way-to-china-followed-by-danas.html

 

 

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Fitow hits China after evacuation of 574,000 people

 

Typhoon strikes Fujian province with winds of up to 94mph before weakening to tropical storm

 

A typhoon has hit south-east China, with powerful winds and heavy rains leaving two people dead, power cuts and flights and train services cancelled.

 

 

Typhoon Fitow struck Fuding city in Fujian province, with winds of up to 94mph (151kph) early on Monday morning, then slowed before weakening to a tropical storm, the National Meteorological Centre said. The homes of more than half a million people had been evacuated and fishing boats were called back to shore while authorities issued a red alert – the highest warning – on Sunday as the typhoon approached.

 

The provincial flood relief agency in Zhejiang, which neighbours Fujian, said 574,000 people had left their homes by Sunday evening and 35,800 vessels returned to shore. Fujian's government said 177,000 people had been moved to safety and nearly 30,000 fishing boats called back. The typhoon cut power in towns and counties in Zhejiang province while high-speed rail services in the region were suspended. At least 27 flights out of Wenzhou airport in Zhejiang were cancelled on Sunday, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

 

The typhoon dumped torrential rain across the south-east seaboard, with rainfall of up to 29cm (8in) in some parts, driven by gusty winds.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/typhoon-fitow-china-evacuation

[Coast]

 

Powerful Typhoon Fitow has rammed into eastern China after triggering the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people.

 

With winds up to 151km/h (93mph), the storm landed in Fujian province early on Monday, bringing heavy rains and causing widespread power cuts. The authorities earlier issued the highest alert - red - for the area. At least two people have been killed by the typhoon, state-run news agency Xinhua reported. One victim was on his way to rescue a fisherman when he was blown off a hill by strong winds late on Sunday, Xinhua said. Some homes are said to have collapsed in neighbouring Zhejiang province and two port workers are missing.

 

Travel chaos Typhoon Fitow - named after a flower - made landfall at 01:15 local time on Monday (17:15 GMT Sunday) in the city of Fuding, Chinese meteorologists said. The typhoon had affected over three million people in Zhejiang and caused economic damage of over 2bn yuan ($330m; £200m), Xinhua said, citing the provincial flood control office. Parts of China have been hit by up to 200mm (8 inches) of rain, AFP news agency reported.

 

Over the weekend the authorities drafted in the army to help strengthen flood defences, the BBC's John Sudworth in Shanghai reports. China is used to dealing with extreme weather events but, nonetheless, the risk to life remains high, our correspondent adds.

 

Typhoon Fitow has brought storm surges to China's eastern coastline.

 

Hundreds of thousands were evacuated before the storm hit the coast.

 

Ports are at a standstill as boats have been ordered to take shelter.

 

The strong winds did not deter some people from venturing outside.

 

In Fujian, 177,000 people were evacuated before the storm hit the coast, Xinhua said, while in Zhejiang, some 574,000 people had to leave their homes. Some 35,000 boats in Zhejiang and 30,000 in Fujian were ordered to return to harbour for shelter. Coastal facilities such as seaside bathing centres were also closed, state media reported. "We must not leave anybody in danger," Zhejiang Governor Li Qiang was quoted as saying.

 

 

The typhoon also caused suspension of bullet trains and coach services in several cities in the area. Dozens of flights to and from Wenzhou airport in Zhejiang were cancelled. The storm is now moving north-west and is expected to weaken quickly. Typhoon Fitow is the 23rd tropical storm to hit China this year, Xinhua reported. It comes just weeks after Typhoon Usagi killed at least 25 people in southern Guangdong province.

 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24424336