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Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...


Methuselah

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

satellite image, that time of year, snow returns to land yet seas are free of sea ice, 71 N along west Greenland http://ow.ly/i/3tjqh

The whole of the west side of the artic is clearly still well below the long term average (ice extent), the East close to the long term average and in some areas above,http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.pngIf we look at 16/10/2007 snow and ice v 16/10/2013 snow ice , that's 'recovery' in my bookhttp://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

 

Lets hope we get a September update re Artic Volume soon , now they have all gone back to work in the USA and 'global melt down' has been avoided for this year any way.

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

 

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

NSIDC extent data is once again available.

 

Here's how we're doing in October so far

 

Posted Image

 

Here's the daily extent change (like the IJIS graph above)

 

Posted Image

 

Looks pretty good compared to last year!  Still well below the long term averages mind, but we do have a somewhat different Arctic these days.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I have to admit, if weather conditions were favorable then I thought the ice edge could of reached the Canadian/Alaskan shoreline quite early compared to recent years but weather conditions have been quite mild around these parts after a cool summer and September so whilst Beaufort sea is below average, the SST charts do suggest it would not take much cold air for the Beaufort sea to freeze over and the models do hint we may see some colder air arriving in these parts around midweek next week. 

 

The Atlantic sector however has been quite cold and will remain that way during next week although despite this, the ice edge is still quite far North at this moment in time but hopefully Beaufort/Kara can freeze over quicker this year than the previous 2 years although I suppose its a fine balancing act as you don't want thicker ice heading down into the fram stright and the current set up does look prime for that occurring unfortunately. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the current situation (as of the 22nd of this month) according to the NSIDC extent.

 

post-6901-0-35142400-1382540047_thumb.jp

 

We're 6th lowest on record and moving close to the 04-08 average (which increases by 124k/day over the next 5 days). We're well above the other 5 lowest years, so no risk of dropping further down the rankings over the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.png

 

Looks like grey ice has taken over the whole artic ? Please to see we are 5,000,000 above the long term average..Did NSIDC close down because of the unexplained grey ice up there ?? conspiracy ??

post-7914-0-53102000-1382647207_thumb.pn

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Erm well all the ice has supposed to have gone but it hasn't so we will paint it grey instead.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Grey's not good! just think of the albedo..........

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Refreeze continues steadily if unspectacularly. - Up over 8.6million sq km.

 

Haven't looked at the prospects for the next week, but if the current trend continues we could overtake 2006 again to move up to 7th lowest.

 

Overtaking the 2000s average remains tantalisingly close, but just out of reach it would seem.

 

All based on IJIS data.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Refreeze continues steadily if unspectacularly. - Up over 8.6million sq km.

 

Haven't looked at the prospects for the next week, but if the current trend continues we could overtake 2006 again to move up to 7th lowest.

 

Overtaking the 2000s average remains tantalisingly close, but just out of reach it would seem.

 

All based on IJIS data.

 

Still waiting for a update on ice volume, hope to see some 'recovery this winter.

 

....August ice volume showed the first increase since 2008 but is still below the long-term trend line.....

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Another decent rise for ice extent on IJIS to 8.82sq km .

 

Still 6th lowest, but we will almost certainly rise above 2006 in the coming days, with 2002, 2003, 2005 and the average for the 2000s perhaps all for the taking too.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Another decent rise for ice extent on IJIS to 8.82sq km .

 

Still 6th lowest, but we will almost certainly rise above 2006 in the coming days, with 2002, 2003, 2005 and the average for the 2000s perhaps all for the taking too.

 

 

Still no update on the Volume yet , so August is the latest.

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

One common theme in recent years is persistent extended periods of time of temps well about average in the high artic

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I've been watching the DMI 80N departure from recent norms myself stew.

 

I wonder if this is a 'pattern shift' that will stick and how the 'new norm' would impact the basin over the coming years it controls the seasonal patterns up there? Though we managed to keep hold of more ice cover in the basin the temps around the basin appeared to be even more extreme?

 

Even through October Alaska has been posting record high temps with very little snowfall at Fairbanks airport ( normal under snow from Oct 18th onward).

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I've been watching the DMI 80N departure from recent norms myself stew.

 

I wonder if this is a 'pattern shift' that will stick and how the 'new norm' would impact the basin over the coming years it controls the seasonal patterns up there? Though we managed to keep hold of more ice cover in the basin the temps around the basin appeared to be even more extreme?

 

Even through October Alaska has been posting record high temps with very little snowfall at Fairbanks airport ( normal under snow from Oct 18th onward).

 

Seems to have been a clear 'pattern shift' based on the 55 years of data that we have.

 

I appreciate the DMI covers the area just within the 80N artic basin and there is far more to the artic then just this area

 

There have always be periods in the winter of temps well above average but not generally for the whole winter (Nov-March)

 

e.g 1976.first 100 days (Jan-March) were well above average but the last  60days (Nov-Dec) of that year well below

 

If we look at more recent years and look at the temps in the high Artic compared to long term averages we have.(Nov-March).

 

2004 well above average

2005 well above average

2006 well above average

2007 well above average

2008 above average

2009 well above average

2010 above average

2011 well above average

2012 Highest above average of the whole series

2013 Above average first part of the year

 

 

1998 was the last year we had a below average year

 

Looking back at the old Artic e.g 1963 was on average 13-15c colder then 2012 for the first 100 days which must have a impact on ice volume /ice growth

 

We saw a clear East/West split this year in the high artic and I fear if we have another 'mild winter' up there, the open water at the North pole could soon become a reality (given average conditions) .

 

There certainly has been a shift up there its no longer the 'ice box' it was in the winter.

 

If the core remains bad it will infect the rest of the apple eventually.

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I know 1 Swallow a summer does not make but it is interesting to see how the 'New Arctic' (I'm sorry I do not know how else to distinguish the low ice/thin ice/young ice basin other than by 'New Arctic') acts under a differing pressure regime than we had become accustomed to? 

 

If we keep the action over in the Gyre maybe we can see a rebuild of the ice thickness there ( lots of 'fresh' coming in from the Russian rivers so it should be quicker to freeze?) and this could then spread out over our side of the basin via the trans-polar drift

 

It's odd that 98' should have proved to be so cold? I wonder if this year is the pre-curser for a Nino event to rival 98'? There is a lot of heat been going in over the Nina years so maybe we ought to expect one?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Upper air values look like remaining close to or a little above average across the Arctic Ocean over the next few days, which should send us above 2006 (which drops to lowest on record during November). We are though, now reaching the point where the majority of the growth needs to start coming from outside the Arctic Ocean, from areas such as Hudson Bay, Baffin and Barents/Kara seas. Temperatures in these areas are forecast to be largely above average over the next week (with the Baffin sea slightly below average) so combined with the +ve SST anomalies, we will likely see a significant slow down in growth during the week with us moving closer to the last 6 years, but probably not dropping below any of them yet.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

This year has turned into a glorious extension of the late spring " Look we've reached average" fest! 

 

Are some folk are really setting themselves up for a fall come the next series of losses across the basin or can we comfortably say that the trend of losses we've witnessed over the past 60 yrs has reversed?

 

 

Last 60 years ? I thought the 'Artic death spiral' only got going in the last 30 years and even more so in the last 10 years ??

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think most folk take the reduction from the first nuke's going under the pack and taking measurements?

 

Most of that data was made public after the end of the cold war so we have some idea of the losses that were ongoing from the late 50's early 60's? Considering that we were in the 'global dimmed' period back then the losses are all the more remarkable?

 

Looking further back the breakup of ward hunt, and the production of those massive ice islands ( like T3?) was ongoing earlier than this ( 30's and 40's warming?) so maybe the loss of these shelf portions should also be linked to the 'death spiral' ( esp. seeing as there is no way of replacing them under current conditions with even Devonshire island ice sheet now failing).

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Bit of a slowdown with only a 6K increase to the 3rd.

 

Enough to take us up to 7th Lowest as we have now overtaken 2006.

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

60k every little bit helps

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Over the last 7 days, the average increase has been +92k/day, above the 02-12 average of 88k/day, but well below the average of the last 6 years, 115k/day.

 

The average daily increase (2002-12) is 68k/day over the next 7 days, with the average of the last 6 years being 74k/day for the same period.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

An increase of just 17k on IJIS yesterday, the lowest increase on that date for the 2002-2013 period

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

An increase of just 17k on IJIS yesterday, the lowest increase on that date for the 2002-2013 period

 

This Autumn we haven't seen so far any up warming in the high Artic. Currently around 248k (-25c) . It will be interesting to see whether we follow 2012 and the temperatures start to rise above the long term average shortly, as they have in recent years..

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Glad to see Artic Ice Volume updated at last.

 

September ice volume was about 1600 km3  larger than in September of 2012 and within 500 km3 of the 2010 September ice volume. I cant see any quick recovery in volume , 2007 doesn't look obtainable but we will see.

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yep, things looking better so far this Autumn. I think the telling volume data will be in March.

 

Below are the 850hPa temp anomalies for Oct 1st to Nov 3rd, from 2007 to this year.

 

Posted Image

 

This year is looking quite different to the last 6, especially for the Barents/Kara region.

If those cold anomalies persist through the winter,  the extent gains on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, coupled with the continued -ve PDO, the extent and volume could see quite a jump by March.

Plenty of time for things to change though, but it should be interesting to watch.

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This Autumn we haven't seen so far any up warming in the high Artic. Currently around 248k (-25c) . It will be interesting to see whether we follow 2012 and the temperatures start to rise above the long term average shortly, as they have in recent years..

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Glad to see Artic Ice Volume updated at last.

 

September ice volume was about 1600 km3  larger than in September of 2012 and within 500 km3 of the 2010 September ice volume. I cant see any quick recovery in volume , 2007 doesn't look obtainable but we will see.

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

Would the increase in transport of the ice down into the Fram not affect this though?

 

The map below illustrates this.

 

Posted Image

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