Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

[barrel1234]

 

Personally it wouldn't bother me one bit if sea ice in the arctic was to become ice-free during the arctic summer- It would just be a case of business and nature dealing with whatever happens- Its probably only had a seasonal pack many times throughout the earths history.

 

   The whole AGW thing facinates me, and along with it I find sea ice extent and trends extremely interesting.

 

What I'm trying to say is that I feel i am pretty neutral as regards to what I want to happen in the arctic, but for me I think that Arctic Ice certainly is not doomed and that some people massively underestimate natural forcings.

Edited October 13, 2013 by jethro

[Gray-Wolf]

to be honest i'm still reeling from the realisation of how much ice has gone from the arctic since the turn of last century never mind the shock that was 07'!

 

The small wriggles that we have we have seen the ice make ( volume) since 07' does not fill me with hope for the future of the Arctic ice at all.

 

Some times I think some of our posters have forgotten just how much of the sea ice has disappeared and just what a 'recovery' would mean ( a recovery to levels from the early 1900's ).

 

The other thing has to be what becomes of the energy that went into destroying the 70% + of the sea ice now there is so little left for it to work on? That energy must go somewhere.

 

Come the next period of positive forcings from Mother N. what would you honestly see occurring? 07' saw off the last of the ice in the basin that could endure a perfect melt storm ( as it did in 87' and 97' ) so what happens when we run into the next one of those ( somewhere from 2017 to 2027 )?

 

And what of the mixing that we have seen in the Arctic ocean. We have papers galore looking at what is happening to the Atlantic deep waters over recent years and the havoc this is causing up the east coast of Greenland. we have studies ongoing into the extension of the N.A.D. into the Arctic basin and the impacts this is having.

 

I cannot move away from the fact that open water means a mixing out of the one thing that allowed Arctic ice to weather those recurrent 'perfect melt storms', apart from ice masses the size of four storey buildings,  was the halocline that the ice sat in.

 

Forgive me for doing no more than accept a cold summer across the Arctic. Until we see plenty more of the same , back to back, and ice that survives the next 'perfect melt storm' I will not allow myself to get my hopes up only to have them dashed.

[Geordiesnow]

I still feel this years extent would of been higher if the extent in the Atlantic sector was not so (record breakingly) low. So the question has to be, why did the ice edge in the Atlantic sector came fairly close to the North Pole, was it just synoptics or is it as i suspect down to the thinner ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic coupled with the warm SSTS in the Barants Sea. This years higher extent is positive in the sence that because it was so low in the Atlantic sector, it mean a lot of ice in the main body of the Arctic survived(even more so than in 2009) and hopefully a lot of this survives through the winter season which will hopefully mean a slightly thicker pack as we head into next years melt season.

 

What will be interesting if next years melt season is another cold one across the Basin, always been said for the Arctic to recover it has to have several cold summers in particular so we'll see what the situation is like this time next year. 

[jonboy]

There is a new paper by Judith Curry that can be found here 

 

http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/10/the-stadium-wave/

 

Which is compelling as to why artic ice continued to melt and why it will now rebound 

 

“The stadium wave forecasts that sea ice will recover from its recent minimum, first in the West Eurasian Arctic, followed by recovery in the Siberian Arctic,†Wyatt said. “Hence, the sea ice minimum observed in 2012, followed by an increase of sea ice in 2013, is suggestive of consistency with the timing of evolution of the stadium-wave signal.â€

[joggs]

This year has turned into a glorious extension of the late spring " Look we've reached average" fest! Are some folk are really setting themselves up for a fall come the next series of losses across the basin or can we comfortably say that the trend of losses we've witnessed over the past 60 yrs has reversed?

To be honest Gw,we have just got to take it year by year imo because nobody knows where this is going?. Also the conditions up there may aid ice extension for year to come.........or may not.

[knocker]

Thus once again.

 

 

[stewfox]

Thus once again.

 

A short snap of 30yrs of artic ice showing a rise then a sharper decline with now a small rise ?

 

Never see what the point of that is ?

 

Things that go down can go up again ??

 

Highest extent on record 1998 happen to be globally the warmest year on record go figure ?

 

If your one of those that believe without any direct evidence, its the worst its been in 10,000 years ,I assume then if the min extent is greater next yr then this year, the 'trend' cf 1980 will still be downwards ??

Edited October 13, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

It was merely a reply to the previous post.

[stewfox]

It was merely a reply to the previous post.

 

I can see 2014 min being higher then this year (assuming average to below average artic summer next year)

 

---------------------------------

In recent summers, there has been considerable transport of older ice into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where it has been broken up and exposed to a warm ocean and high air temperatures. This has been a major factor in the loss of multiyear ice over the last decade. This year was notably different. Because this year’s wind pattern was different than 2012, the multiyear ice largely remained in a compact area along the Canadian Archipelago and did not circulate into the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. The cooler conditions this summer also helped preserve more of the first-year ice through the summer.

------------------------------

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[jethro]

I've just had to waste yet more of my life clearing up your bickering. You are all seasoned posters, you all know the standard of behaviour expected in here. If you have a problem with something someone has posted, hit the report button. If you decline to do that and instead choose to respond in the threads, you make yourself part of the problem too. It's all well and good moaning about sniping posts, whining that the Mods let some people get away with things others wouldn't get away with - the answer is really simple, bring it to our attention by reporting it and then it will be dealt with.

[barrel1234]

Arctic temps at 80 degree north are once again below average..... i didnt expect to see that at this time of year with SST anomalies being so high in the area.

 

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

 

 

 

 

 

edit- typo

Edited October 14, 2013 by barrel1234

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice extent for this time has already exceeded 2005 2006 but more significant is that DmI only records ice that"s only over  concentration of 30% and over.This would suggest ice is becoming thicker and more concentrated.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

[BornFromTheVoid]

Keith, broken record I know, but if you're going to copy and paste from somewhere, please post a link to the source, it really doesn't require much effort!

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/arctic-ice-extent-overtaking-2005-2006/

Edited October 15, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Stu_London]

Based on IJIS data, we have actually fallen behind 2006 and 2008 in the last few days, so perhaps the refreeze isn't quite as impressive as some think.

 

We are still 1.72 million sq km ahead of 2012 but I expect that gap to close rapidly in the next few days. 2012 gained 1.4 million sq km in the corresponding week ahead last year, which might well be the fastest rate of refreeze over 7 days ever observed.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Stu_London

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on IJIS data, we have actually fallen behind 2006 and 2008 in the last few days, so perhaps the refreeze isn't quite as impressive as some think.

 

We are still 1.72 million sq km ahead of 2012 but I expect that gap to close rapidly in the next few days. 2012 gained 1.4 million sq km in the corresponding week ahead last year, which might well be the fastest rate of refreeze over 7 days ever observed.

 

The 5 day average increase has just dropped below the 2002-2012 average also. A good increase so far, but nothing exceptional.

[Fergus Brown]

Read and shudder: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/66/10/10.1063/PT.3.2147

 

What, exactly, is there an argument about?

 

 

[stewfox]

Read and shudder: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/66/10/10.1063/PT.3.2147

 

What, exactly, is there an argument about?

 

 

Published Oct 2013 but misses out this crucial year of recovery

 

Suggests CO2 nothing to do with the current state of the artic

 

That's my read of it ??

 

----------------------------

 

Whereas Manabe and Stouffer’s simulation quadrupled the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in its artificial world, the actual increase to date has been much lower. At Barrow in northernmost Alaska, for example, the mean CO 2 concentration of 385 ppm in September 2012 was only 15% higher than the 331 ppm of September 1980. And yet profound changes in surface air temperature, sea ice, and numerous other environmental conditions have occurred in the Arctic.

--------------------------

 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by stewfox

[Fergus Brown]

Published Oct 2013 but misses out this crucial year of recovery

 

Suggests CO2 nothing to do with the current state of the artic

 

That's my read of it ??

 

Stew, honestly!

 

There is no year of recovery;

 

If there was such a thing it would make no difference;

 

A new normal... 2013 is part of a new normal, yes?

 

So remind me, absent CO2, why this is happening? One plausible alternative explanation?

 

Note: the paper points out that small perturbations in the Arctic produce large self-amplifying feedbacks. Where do they say there is no relation between GW and the observed changes?

 

[stewfox]

Stew, honestly!

 

There is no year of recovery;

 

If there was such a thing it would make no difference;

 

A new normal... 2013 is part of a new normal, yes?

 

So remind me, absent CO2, why this is happening? One plausible alternative explanation?

 

Note: the paper points out that small perturbations in the Arctic produce large self-amplifying feedbacks. Where do they say there is no relation between GW and the observed changes?

 

 

Have you looked at the charts recently ?

 

Lets call it a 'blip' on the 'artic death spiral' if you prefer and beg to differ

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

""simulation quadrupled the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations""

 

""Real world 15% increase""

 

Are you suggesting that we ignore the simulation and just impose on real world ?

Edited October 17, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd suggest that the 'real world' models the outcome better than our present 'models'?

 

If you looked at 2003 ice min and overlaid this summers min what would you see?

 

"2013" is the type of wriggle that varying weather helps maintain in the Arctic. Hadn't we be better off looking at what a 'standard' Arctic summer did last year when compared to an abnormal year, primed for ice melt, a few years earlier and see what that may be telling us about ice condition these days? What is the point in getting hopes raised when you know full well that another year primed for ice loss will only wipe out all the gains an possibly lead us to another 'low' record? 

 

If good weather for melting brings us records and now 'average weather 'brings us records' we only have a 1 in 3 chance of seeing this more 'normal' year repeat next year. I do not get all of this short term glee, I didn't when it was peripheral ice in spring and I don't now it's another summer that didn't break the record low.

 

What were we told in 08'? Recovery. What did we see in 09'? recovery and then 2010 in a bog average year had folk whining about the way we measure as 07's record low looked in jeopardy. What do we get this year ( that the ice is higher than a 'record low')? recovery.

 

I'd rather be realistic about what I have sat and witnessed this past 6 years than throw it all away and join the clap happy brigade of 'We're all saved! it was all just a big mistake.....' and buoy myself up before we are passed the next 'perfect melt storm' and I'd honestly suggest others did likewise instead of setting themselves up for a fall.

 

It's the same with global air temps. At some point the natural forcings will alter to ones more favourable of warming. With more heat than ever in the oceans and more energy now being accepted by a planet better able than ever to hold onto heat how do folk think that will go and how will the 'it's all a scam' brigade fare then. Better remain sceptical of long term recovery I say until we have at least weathered the future changes we all know must come to pass?

[stewfox]

 

 

I'd rather be realistic about what I have sat and witnessed this past 6 years than throw it all away and join the clap happy brigade of 'We're all saved! it was all just a big mistake.....' and buoy myself up before we are passed the next 'perfect melt storm' and I'd honestly suggest others did likewise instead of setting themselves up for a fall.

 

 

 

I don't know GW this camp is kind of fun

 

   

 

"""Were all saved from impending doom and despair"""

Edited October 18, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

A sea ice extent increase of 170,836km2 on IJIS for the 17th, which is a record large extent increase for that date based on the 2002 to 2012 data.

 

Daily extent change

[stewfox]

A sea ice extent increase of 170,836km2 on IJIS for the 17th, which is a record large extent increase for that date based on the 2002 to 2012 data.

 

Daily extent change

 

 

The running mean for 2002-12 in need the mean 2000-12 for the forth coming days suggests we may go through the 2000's averages in the next few days.

 

The cold remains locked up in the high artic

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

I would hope we can start to see some gains on the west of the Artic  (That gulf stream is shown in all its glory in the attached picture)

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

Edited October 18, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

The running mean for 2002-12 in need the mean 2000-12 for the forth coming days suggests we may go through the 2000's averages in the next few days.

 

The cold remains locked up in the high artic

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

I would hope we can start to see some gains on the west of the Artic  (That gulf stream is shown in all its glory in the attached picture)

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif

 

At the growth rate of the last 5 days (120k/day), it will take another 11 days to pass the 2000s average. With a very high growth rate, say 150k/day, it would take 6 days.

 

Not sure the gulf stream is making it all the way to the Kara sea though. Perhaps is more the +ve AMO helping to keep the ice held back there?

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC extent data is once again available.

 

Here's how we're doing in October so far

 

 

Here's the daily extent change (like the IJIS graph above)

 

Edited October 19, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid