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Christmas 2013 Forecast


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#21 Stuart

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 10:52

can you let me do this i started it off


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#22 IBTHToThoseShortwaves

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 10:54

Yea SS.....>  |         |

                    |  BIN |

                    |______|


Edited by IBringTheHammer, 16 September 2013 - 10:55 .

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Height ASL: 200m

Date of first snow fall locally: 6th Dec
Number of Days of falling snow for winter 2013/14: < 1
Total number of inches of laying snow for winter 2013/14
: < 1

Coldest Temp Recorded for winter 2013/14:  (Technically Autumn: -4 @ 08:10 19/11/2013)

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#23 Stuart

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 17:30

Cold chance reduced

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

The fourth update suggests a slightly reduced chance of a White Christmas. It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters. In addition the output from the long range forecast models looks quite mixed. Despite this the percentage forecast chances of a White Christmas are still above the average and there continues to be a signal in some of the output for high level blocking to develop later in the year.

Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued
Update 4, 21/09/2013

The computer says [Issued 21/09/2013 16:01:17] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast

 

 


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#24 triple_x1

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Posted 21 September 2013 - 17:41

Reduced!? Noooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.....

Awaits next update :)

Sledge re packed back into loft pronto!
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#25 Mark N

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 09:53

Found this online. Snow falling/lying Xmas day! 

Attached Thumbnails

  • CHRISTMAS SNOW.gif

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**Location- Headington,Oxfordshire (115m)**

Winter 2013/14
Frosts- 10
Lowest Temperature:- -3.3c December 3rd.
Snow falling/lying = 0/0 days

#26 Stuart

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 08:45

Christmas 2013: Snow chance?

 

The fifth update suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas. Factors for this include:

i)the early development of snow cover over parts of Russia
ii) the continued signal from some of the long computer models for a cold pattern in December
iii) most importantly the progression so far this autumn which has been quite similar to recent years which have had cold winters

In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.

Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

Forecast issued
Update 5, 28/09/2013

The computer says [Issued 29/09/2013 07:13:21] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • Snow is expected in Wales
  • Snow is expected in the Midlands
  • Snow is expected in the north
  • Snow is expected in Scotland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast


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#27 Stuart

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Posted 05 October 2013 - 19:55

Christmas 2013: White in the south? 

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

A new month and time for the for the sixth update, so how are things panning out? High pressure has been persistent and stubborn during recent times with only short unsettled interludes. However, there are now signs of a change towards the middle of October with a good chance of a more zonal pattern becoming established close to the UK and possibly east across much of Europe. If this becomes established it could reduce the chances of early cold becoming established in eastern Europe. Partly due to this the sixth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas. However, they remain above the long term average, especially in the south because background signals still seem to favour high pressure blocking to the north of Britain and this usually means cold weather during the winter months.   

In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.

Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 21%

Forecast issued
Update 6, 05/10/2013

The computer says [Issued 05/10/2013 20:45:50] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

 

 

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast


Edited by Stuart, 05 October 2013 - 19:55 .

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#28 Stuart

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:52

Christmas 2013: Green for most?

 

 

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

We're now into the second half of autumn so how are things panning out for the seventh Christmas weather update? In the last couple of weeks the weather has turned increasingly unsettled across the UK with temperatures mostly above average. It looks as though this pattern will persist for a while. Early signs of northern blocking have faded and it now looks as though pressure over the polar region will be low keeping the cold bottled up at high latitudes with mildish west or south westerly winds prevailing at mid latitudes in western Europe. This is a very typical pattern and once established it can become stable and persistent. That does not preclude things changing quickly, but partly due to this the seventh update reduces the chance of a White Christmas, particularly in the south.   

In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be close to the long term average.

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12.5%

Forecast issued
Update 7, 19/10/2013

The computer says [Issued 20/10/2013 07:02:58] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast


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#29 Jax

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:02

TBH we struggle to get a decent forecast for next week so chrimbo is too far off yet IMHO, stats however will show the chances are low for cold and snow.

 

My forecast is, poor with a light sprinkling of prezzies and maybe a glass or two of something wet.


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#30 Stuart

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 21:26

Christmas 2013: Wintry in the north?

 

TheWeatherOutlook says

Well into the second half of autumn so how are things panning out for the eight Christmas weather update? The weather in recent weeks has remained locked in a mobile westerly pattern bringing rain and above average temperatures. It looks as though autumn 2013 will turn out to be more mobile and stormier than some recent ones. How does this impact the Xmas forecast? Substantial high latitude northern blocking currently looks less likely to develop in the early part of winter this year, so December could bring further spells of mobile weather. However, with significant mobility colder incursions may develop quite frequently in northern regions of Britain as we head towards the Xmas period. Taking this into account the eighth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas in the south and increases it in the north.   

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12%

Forecast issued
Update 8, 02/11/2013

The computer says [Issued 02/11/2013 19:02:50] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
  • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

 

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast


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#31 Paul

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 20:22

The Santa shaker is back - first Xmas forecast now online:

 

http://www.netweathe...tion=xmas;sess=

 

static.gif


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#32 Don

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 20:26

The Santa shaker is back - first Xmas forecast now online:

 

http://www.netweathe...tion=xmas;sess=

 

static.gif

 

Good to have it back.  1st update 20% chance!


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#33 Stuart

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 20:16

Christmas 2013: South for cold?

 

Christmas is rapidly approaching on the calendar but in weather terms it's still a very long way off! Recent weeks have brought a mobile westerly flow across the UK with plenty of rain and close to average temperatures. Over the Scottish mountains temperatures have been low enough for significant snowfall. There are now signs of a change through the second half of November with high pressure possibly building across the UK.

How does this impact the Xmas forecast? The Atlantic continues to look more active than in recent years and this could mean high pressure at times builds closer to the UK instead of Greenland to Iceland. In this set-up colder conditions would be more likely in southern regions (and even more likely in France) rather than the north and west.   

Taking this into account the ninth update increases the chance of a White Christmas in the south and decreases it in the north.   

Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued
Update 9, 09/11/2013

The computer says [Issued 09/11/2013 19:04:00] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the south
  • Snow is expected in Wales
  • Snow is expected in the Midlands
  • Snow is expected in the north
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
  • Snow is expected in Northern Ireland
  • Snow is expected in the Republic of Ireland
  • Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweathe...eather-forecast


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website

http://www.ardersier-weather.co.uk/

 

 

 

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#34 hillbilly

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 22:15

You are all wrong....wind and rain!


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#35 Captain shortwave

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 22:46

Started looking at the CFS for guidance using the same timed output each day (12z) - Of the 7 runs so far since I started last Sunday, 6 or these were completely dry on Christmas day for the majority of the UK. The most common placement of core heights to the south east of the UK over the Alps/Germany. Would lead to average temperatures with the chance of frost and fog in places.

Just 1 run was unsettled throughout the Christmas period and brought periods of rain/sleet or snow across the whole of the UK on a generally polar maritime based flow.


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#36 ARTDEMOLE

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 23:35

definitely   50 % for Boxing Day... Life is worth living for... 


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#37 Paul

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 21:21

Latest Xmas forecast - shake Santa for the snow risk!

 

http://www.netweathe...tion=xmas;sess=


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#38 Coast

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 07:48

Current white Christmas betting from Paddy Power:

 

 

Dublin 3/1

Galway 5/1
London 7/2
Belfast 6/1
Derry 7/2
Glasgow 11/4
Cardiff 5/1
Manchester 3/1
 
Applies to snow being recorded at the main location on 25th December 2013. www.wunderground.com results will apply.

 


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#39 V for Very Cold

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:30

3/1 ... not bad odds -  ties in with NWs 35% chance  - are Paddy Power using this site for their odds :)


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#40 georgiedre

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:32

Belfast 6/1 and Cardiff 5/1??? Wth surely Belfast has a better chance of snow seen as its about 400-500 miles further north!!??
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