Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[bluearmy]

I thought I'd try take a different approach to the CFS data, to look at the trends for blocking in the North Atlantic this Winter.

 

I chose to focus on the area within the green box below, stretching from eastern Scandinavia to Western Greenland, and bound by Svalbard and Iceland for the north and south edges.

 

 

 

So I started a spread sheet and for the 12z CFS each day, I looked at the monthly sea level pressure anomaly within the general area of the box and ranked it based on 11 categories, going from exceptional blocking (ranked as a 5), to neutral (ranked as a 0) down to exceptionally low pressure (ranked as a -5). The method a bit subjective, but should be ok for trends.

Below is an example of a +5 (most blocked), a 0 (neutral) and a -3 (strong low anomaly, the lowest I've come across, none have warranted a -5 so far!)

 

+5

 

 

0

 

 

-3

 

 

 

 

In situations where there is both a strong +ve and -ve anomaly within the box, they cancel eachother out, giving a 0 overall.

 

With the data gathered, I then was able to get some averages and trends.

 

Below are the predictions for November since September 22nd, the daily data in blue, the 5 day mean in red and the trend in black.

 

 

 

November has averaged +1.8 over the last 3 weeks, so pretty much in the moderate blocking category, but does show a very slight downward trend. Overall, I think it looks quite promising, with 80% of runs since the 22nd showing +ve SLP anomalies to our north, with 10% -ve and 10% neutral.

 

 

December

 

 

December is looking quite good, with an average over the last 3 weeks of +2.3, with 5% showing -ve pressure anomalies, 10% showing neutral and 85% of runs showing +ve pressure anomalies to our north. A good upward trend in the blocking too.

 

 

I'll try post an update of these every now and then. If anyone wants the stats for January, February or March I can post them up, though I'm not sure how reliable the CFS is at that kind of range.

 

given our current solution BFTV, i think you might want to draw a box to our south as well. blocking to our north will be only of wintry value to the scots if we also have reasonably high anomolys to our south.  given that the runs will vary, maybe extra points can go to those runs where blocking is evident to the north but low heights exist over w europe at the same time ???

[feb1991blizzard]

What has happened to Ian F?

 

Has he been gagged or more likely simply had enough of us lot misquoting 'shannon entropy'?

 

I think its more likely he has had enough of all the cold ramping to be honest, he did say that once last winter but then came back on, he is invaluable really in mid winter because obviously he has access to a lot more data than we have and of course is highly qualified to interpret that data, sorry people if I sounded like I was dissing him, I was not, my point was that surely one only gets interested in the science of meteorology because of loving interesting weather from a young age.

[keithlucky]

Extract from the met forecast for December "The Met Office has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for the final month of the year. Conditions across January and February are expected to continue the trend from the past few winters, with cooler than average temperatures and more frequent snowfall than in the past two decades.

[bobbydog]

Extract from the met forecast for December "The Met Office has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for the final month of the year. Conditions across January and February are expected to continue the trend from the past few winters, with cooler than average temperatures and more frequent snowfall than in the past two decades.

 

hi keith, do you have a link to that?

[Relativistic]

Extract from the met forecast for December "The Met Office has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for the final month of the year. Conditions across January and February are expected to continue the trend from the past few winters, with cooler than average temperatures and more frequent snowfall than in the past two decades.

After what they said in June (that the next ten years will feature cool and wet Summer's), this doesn't fill me with hope. Edited October 13, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[feb1991blizzard]

Extract from the met forecast for December "The Met Office has predicted a pattern of high pressure from December. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average for the final month of the year. Conditions across January and February are expected to continue the trend from the past few winters, with cooler than average temperatures and more frequent snowfall than in the past two decades.

 

Good news if its true, always rather have them on board than not, thought they had stopped doing 3 month forecasts and only the raw data was released.

[Summer Sun]

hi keith, do you have a link to that?

 

It won't be official it will have been in the media as the met don't do seasonal forecast's

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bobbydog]

It won't be official it will have been in the media as the met don't do seasonal forecast's

 

true gavin but it must have come from an official source. they do still do commercial LRF's

[Summer Sun]

true gavin but it must have come from an official source. they do still do commercial LRF's

 

All I can find is the contingency planners forecast

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2797743

[bobbydog]

All I can find is the contingency planners forecast

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2797743

 

hmm.... i would still like to know where keith got that extract. mind you, if its the media, they seem to think all 'forecasters' are the same and to be believed and could easily have got the Met Office confused with James Madden!

[keithlucky]

hi keith, do you have a link to that?

Quote from a person who pays on a commercial site . I still think that they must see an omega block in place for most of the winter .With the jet stream pushed south across Spain and the USA getting a absolute snow fest.

[bobbydog]

Quote from a person who pays on a commercial site . I still think that they must see an omega block in place for most of the winter .With the jet stream pushed south across Spain and the USA getting a absolute snow fest.

 

ok thanks keith

[Mark Neal.]

There ya go.. http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/how-super-gritters-aim-to-beat-snow-and-icy-roads-1-3131051

[BornFromTheVoid]

given our current solution BFTV, i think you might want to draw a box to our south as well. blocking to our north will be only of wintry value to the scots if we also have reasonably high anomolys to our south.  given that the runs will vary, maybe extra points can go to those runs where blocking is evident to the north but low heights exist over w europe at the same time ???

 

It wasn't intended to be a measure of the snowiness or coldness of the forecast, just to give an idea of the CFS pressure/blocking trends to our north. Incorporating the different elements that can influence our chances of cold would be much more time consuming!

[Buriedundersnow]

posted this in the strat thread aswell.

 

now i have no knowledge on the strat still trying to learn but I wonder if this might be something happening up there.

 

 

 

[Mark Neal.]

posted this in the strat thread aswell.

 

now i have no knowledge on the strat still trying to learn but I wonder if this might be something happening up there.

 

gfsnh-10-168.png

A small warming? Ed (chiono) is your man for that'!

[Gavin Hannah]

The strat forecast has been showing signs of a warming of some sorts. Waiting to see Chiono announces anything in the strat thread.

[bobbydog]

i'm not sure if 'warmings' are technically possible yet (chiono would clarify) but what we might be seeing is the PV struggling to gain strength. we would have to see previous years records at this stage to be sure. however, i'm sure any PV disruption at an early stage can only help things further down the line.

[Buriedundersnow]

first snow showing up in eastern Scandinavia and i'm sure from the charts there will be more to come in the days ahead

 

yesterday

 

 

today

 

[Mark Neal.]

Good to see the Alps have a sprinkle of white on that snow/ice map! 

[jam]

Yep a sprinkle in the Italian Alps

http://webcam.popso.it/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT/IDPagina/28#

[Charltonkerry]

Can confirm there was a fresh sprinkling on the very tops of the mountains when we flew home from Nice yesterday morning.

[johnholmes]

this one is just above where the Lauberhorn ski race starts, not as much as about the same time last year but fingers crossed!

http://panocam.panomax.at/lauberhorn

[Summer Sun]

2 days ago high pressure to the north was going to bring an early blast of winter now its going to bring 2 months of above average rain!

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436541/UK-weather-Now-it-s-going-to-rain-heavily-till-Christmas

 

That paper is a complete joke

Edited October 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Well everything is still going to plan for a cold winter, though I would have preferred the warm and anticyclonic build up rather than a rain filled one. Still looking for signs of some cold developing right at the end of the month into November, still looks plausible.