Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

Completely irrelevant wrt to what will probably transpire for xmas day but that chart above from conor is potentially very snowy for the uk, given the flow being of continental origin. You dont need very low uppers if you have continental sourced air.

 

Yes, I didn't mean it wasn't snowy, I just meant it wasn't spectacular, I take it you are talking about the chart of Connor's that I talked about on the previous page.

Sub zero.

 

And not just below either, perhaps significantly so?

[Tim Bland]

Madman has spoken out regarding the METO response.... 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGQWY8_RJ-w

I can't believe this guys arrogance! He thinks he is above the Met office! He bangs on about how accurate his forecasts are and they are simply not! Last year he forecast snowmagedon starting Nov and ending April..just like he does every year! He aims a success for last year based on the March snow! So his forecast is there for everyone to see. Please can I ask that members digest it, remember it and loo back on it in the spring. If we are are not digging ourselves out from 6 months of blizzards then next year disregard his forecast for the utter tripe it really is!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes he's certainly the whole package Tim...

Edited October 20, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Just stumbled upon these whilst trying to google for CFS charts

 

Certainly interesting 

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2013 by Essex Easterly.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an update of the CFS graphs I posted this time last week. For an explanation on how the graphs were created, check this post.

The one change that has been made, is the 5 day average line has been changed to a 10 day average.

 

Anyway, here's how November is looking.

 

 

There's been a big change over the last week in what the 12z CFS is showing. The 10 day average has dipped below 0, which indicates that negative pressure anomalies to our north will be more likely than positive. Over the last 10 days, 5 of the 12z CFS runs have shown low pressure anomalies to our north, 3 have been neutral and 2 have shown high pressure anomalies. The previous 10 days were 1 negative, 1 neutral and 8 positive anomalies.

 

 

Here's what is being shown for December

 

 

 

The strength of the forecast positive pressure anomalies to our north have weakened, but have remained largely positive and more consistent than November. The 10 day average remains at the moderate blocking/+ve pressure anomaly category (+2).

Over the last 10 days, 1 run has shown negative anomalies, and the rest have shown positive anomalies to our north. In the 10 days previous to that, all 12z runs had shown positive anomalies.

 

Of all the months I'm checking, March has been by far the most consistent, with just 2 runs out of the last 35 showing negative pressure anomalies, the rest showing positive.

[Cloud 10]

Quite a change in the CFS v2 ensemble prediction for December since the start of October,with the +ve pressure anomalies around Greenland fading away.

 

5th Oct...  20th Oct...

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite a change in the CFS v2 ensemble prediction for December since the start of October,with the +ve pressure anomalies around Greenland fading away.

 

5th Oct...cfsdecember1.gif  20th Oct...cfsdecember6.gif

 

Hardly surprising. It was always going to change, following strat thread far better, use the models only in conjunction with.

[Buriedundersnow]

Quite a change in the CFS v2 ensemble prediction for December since the start of October,with the +ve pressure anomalies around Greenland fading away.

 

5th Oct...cfsdecember1.gif  20th Oct...cfsdecember6.gif

 

these long range charts are rarely going to be right although we do have to take note of them but the fact there shunning away from cold blocked charts doesn't get me down too much about winter.

 

same as this zonality we are seeing just now just look how things were in 2010 and look where we turned out so just cos we are zonal it doesn't mean something cold cant come straight on the back of it

 

for newcomers once opened first image use left and right arrow keys to move through the images

 

 

so just because we are zonal just now doesn't mean in weeks to come we cant be in the freezer

 

plus note the charts for October theres a euro high just like we have just now that some people are calling winter off due to

Edited October 20, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Mark Neal.]

these long range charts are rarely going to be right although we do have to take note of them but the fact there shunning away from cold blocked charts doesn't get me down too much about winter.

 

same as this zonality we are seeing just now just look how things were in 2010 and look where we turned out so just cos we are zonal it doesn't mean something cold cant come straight on the back of it

 

for newcomers once opened first image use left and right arrow keys to move through the images

 

archives-2010-10-18-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-19-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-22-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-25-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-27-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-29-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-31-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-6-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-8-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-10-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-12-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-14-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-16-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-18-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-20-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-22-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-25-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-29-12-0.png

 

so just because we are zonal just now doesn't mean in weeks to come we cant be in the freezer

 

plus note the charts for October theres a euro high just like we have just now that some people are calling winter off due to

 

Great post, just goes to show alot can change in that space of time akin to 2010, it could happen again this year. Still think we have got a while of Zonal weather coming up, but i think weather systems going NW-SE soon enough with colder incursions, giving us a small taste of something wintry over hills. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Although I'm in a zonal 'mild camp' for late Nov and early Dec I want it on known on here that I'm a tad excited by this winter.... not early though

 

BFTP

[bobbydog]

these long range charts are rarely going to be right although we do have to take note of them but the fact there shunning away from cold blocked charts doesn't get me down too much about winter.

 

same as this zonality we are seeing just now just look how things were in 2010 and look where we turned out so just cos we are zonal it doesn't mean something cold cant come straight on the back of it

 

for newcomers once opened first image use left and right arrow keys to move through the images

 

archives-2010-10-18-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-19-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-22-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-25-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-27-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-29-12-0.pngarchives-2010-10-31-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-6-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-8-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-10-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-12-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-14-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-16-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-18-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-20-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-22-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-25-12-0.pngarchives-2010-11-29-12-0.png

 

so just because we are zonal just now doesn't mean in weeks to come we cant be in the freezer

 

plus note the charts for October theres a euro high just like we have just now that some people are calling winter off due to

 

you mean this one?-

 

 

not unlike this one.....

 

 

 

then the north wind shall blow... and we shall have snow......

[Buriedundersnow]

Although I'm in a zonal 'mild camp' for late Nov and early Dec I want it on known on here that I'm a tad excited by this winter.... not early though

 

BFTP

 

 

see I thought we would get something early possibly 2 or 3 weeks of cold and snow nothing scientific in that so don't quote me on it just a funny feeling I had and i'm still hoping it was right.

[Hotspur62]

Have been watching this thread for a few weeks and been interesting to see how models have been flying about a bit for start of winter. Just for record I love warm sunny summers and have a bias towards cold snowy winters(like I would guess about 60-70% of posters on these threads). However, we must keep things in perspective about this winter. Much as I would like a winter say, like Bavaria, for example that is very unlikely to happen. We will just have milder spells interspursed with colder spells(hopefully!!) from Late November to late March. That is not to say that a Dec 10 or March 13 wont happen ,but the odds are statistically against it.

 

Like others may be suggesting my hunch is that this winter will be a slow burner and I don't expect any significant cold spells this side of Christmas. For us coldies,hunch is that we can look forward to January and February when if the snow starts to fall, this place will go into its usual meltdown!!As JB says enjoy the weather as its the only weather weve got

[Mark Neal.]

Perhaps we should hire a minibus and go to Ben Nevis and get a snow fix

[Buriedundersnow]

2009 aswell from zonal muck into the freezer

 

 

and again starting with high pressure over Europe and the jet going to Scandinavia

Edited October 20, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Mark Neal.]

Just goes to show really how not to get too downhearted if zonal is showing in the models. Can't see it lasting months. It will change again.

[Cloud 10]

these long range charts are rarely going to be right although we do have to take note of them but the fact there shunning away from cold blocked charts doesn't get me down too much about winter.

 

Just an experiment really to see if there is any point in even looking at them this far out.

 

Hopefully it will swing back to its original prediction!

[Snowman.]

The 2009 was caused by a SSW, so was last years cold Jan as well.

 

Main thing is that the CFS is giving us in sight for November which is the best thing for us, if we can get a pattern change in November is should give us a chance later in the line.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 updates of the CFS today have been blocked runs (including the latest one). So I don't know where this despondency is coming from RE CFS.

 

Unless some people can't be doing without some kind of perceived doom and gloom to moan about?

Edited October 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[SnowObsessor90]

Just goes to show really how not to get too downhearted if zonal is showing in the models. Can't see it lasting months. It will change again.

At that stage I wouldn't rule out a change to something or another at some point in December, failing "proper cold" then "faux cold" would do me just fine, on the other hand there is of the course the settled/mild option which would be even worse  than what we have now.

Edited October 20, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[throwoff]

Weather CHANGES!!!!

yes its looking like zonal muck for a while but cold will come.

Patience folks.

[jethro]

At that stage I wouldn't rule out a change to something or another at some point in December, failing "proper cold" then "faux cold" would do me just fine, on the other hand there is of the course the settled/mild option which would be even worse  than what we have now.

 

Oh no, no, no, please not the dreaded faux cold! Not picking on you, but of all the phrases which start appearing in winter, that one gets me the most. Cold is cold, it's measurable on a thermometer, it isn't real or pretend/faux - it either is, or it isn't.

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh no, no, no, please not the dreaded faux cold! Not picking on you, but of all the phrases which start appearing in winter, that one gets me the most. Cold is cold, it's measurable on a thermometer, it isn't real or pretend/faux - it either is, or it isn't.

 

I can see your point because above average uppers is ok when an undercut is in process and seems not when its one of those inversions where a big fat high is sat over the Uk as in Dec 1991, however, to have a real stonker you do need brutal uppers, anyway happy winter sweetheart.

[iapennell]

Hello, I am new to this Forum.  I live in the North Pennines (near Alston, just into Cumbria); and I have been a keen weather-observer for many years.  I like cold weather, heavy snows and very hard frosts (below -10C) but I am realistic enough to realise that this is usually unlikely in these globally-warmed years.  This year proves to be no exception to the general rule.

 

We have just had the hottest summer for several years; sea surface temperatures right across the North Atlantic are over 2C above normal (as reported in September) consequent on the Azores High being further north than usual.  The extent of Arctic sea ice is greater than last year but remains below the seasonal norm going through October; and the European Arctic remains ice free to well north of Spitsbergen.  This all tends to favour deep depressions forming close to the strong temperature gradient between a warm North Atlantic and the already very cold Greenland/North American Arctic- and the warm North Atlantic right up into the European High Arctic will encourage this cyclonic activity to push well north.  This points to persistent, strong west and SW winds and little chance of blocking highs in the Arctic or over northern Scandinavia sending bitter Arctic or Russian airmasses towards the UK.  Historically long warm summers, then warm early autumns mean neither early frosts in October, nor really severe winter weather.

 

All of which means it is likely to be November before we even get our first air frost (even here at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines!), there is no reason for deeper lows west of Ireland (and attendant south and SW winds) to change before the end of October:  Winter 2013/14 is likely to be milder than usual, though probably also particularly wet and stormy in Scotland and the North.  Short Arctic Snaps from the north-west are more likely in February when Greenland and Arctic Canada have cooled sufficiently to permit stronger Highs to form over them; then we may get some snow and a sharp frost.  Aside from that temperatures will remain well above freezing point across all lowland Britain, though it is likely that severe gales (the like of which we have not seen for some years) will batter the country from December onwards.

 

Ian Pennell

[jethro]

I can see your point because above average uppers is ok when an undercut is in process and seems not when its one of those inversions where a big fat high is sat over the Uk as in Dec 1991, however, to have a real stonker you do need brutal uppers, anyway happy winter sweetheart.

 

I'll take your word for it, it's all just pretty coloured blobs to me....all I know is when it's cold outside, it's cold, there's nothing faux about it. You have a happy winter too, fingers crossed it's a snowy one!