Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Methuselah]

I just want it warm enough to be outside; a cold and grotty 8C simply won't do!

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS slowly coming on board - this is going to be a near miss but promising signs.

[Isolated Frost]

Do have the feeling that November, December and January will all have very similar temperatures , maybe between 4 and 5c, before February goes mad.

[UV-RAY]

I'm thinking that November could give us a real taste of winter with December coming in around average before January gives us another potent blast.

[smithyweather]

No I don't think November will be cold maybe January. But I would not mind all 4 months average 4c highs because that would give us alot of snow. Although to get near 2010 we need about 2c high.

[feb1991blizzard]

Do have the feeling that November, December and January will all have very similar temperatures , maybe between 4 and 5c, before February goes mad.

 

 

That was exactly my thoughts for a long long while and thought we missed the boat last year wrt a brutal winter -  was thinking this year could be a slow burner like 2011-2012 because of the QBO but due to snow build up to our East and ENSO neutral likely and models showing blocking over GL, we may get away with it and get something early.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS slowly coming on board - this is going to be a near miss but promising signs.

The GFS has gone completely mental, in high resolution, I don't think I've seen a run default to zonal westerlies in 4 days and then by the end of high resolution produce a massive Greenland high but with the UK seeing no effect from it whatsoever.

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm thinking that November could give us a real taste of winter with December coming in around average before January gives us another potent blast.

 

 

Unlike you to be so positive!

[UV-RAY]

Unlike you to be so positive!

Not at all, the last two winters were pants IMBY and I expected that to be the case due to the nature of were any blocks would set up, this coming winter hopefully will see heights over Greenland rather than Scandi, so any cold shots this time will give us a more of a chance than anything from the East, unless it's a 78/79 set up.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not at all, the last two winters were pants IMBY and I expected that to be the case due to the nature of were any blocks would set up, this coming winter hopefully will see heights over Greenland rather than Scandi, so any cold shots this time will give us a more of a chance than anything from the East, unless it's a 78/79 set up.

 

Just shows you because I am not a million miles away (your not that far NW of Manchester are you?), but yet I haven't changed my views on what airmass is best, I have lived in the West Midlands-a good few miles SW of Birmingham, Salford and here and even though I have a massive mountain range to my east, I still want an easterly, yes its the hardest to get highest risk and least likely to verify - even when all 3 models show it inside 100, yes - you need potent uppers, yes - you need strong pressure gradient but also - yes, its still will deliver the most brutal conditions when it does set up properly, when I was in Salford I probably might say no - after missing out in 09 while areas 6 - 8 miles east were getting close to a foot.

[UV-RAY]

There's only been two decent easterly spells in this neck of the woods and that was 78/79 and Feb 91.

[feb1991blizzard]

There's only been two decent easterly spells in this neck of the woods and that was 78/79 and Feb 91.

 

What did you get in 91 in terms of level snow?

[feb1991blizzard]

There's only been two decent easterly spells in this neck of the woods and that was 78/79 and Feb 91.

 

Was this the one in 78?

Edited October 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[swfc]

As regards to the coming winter altho the snow cover to the north and east is important its not the main player regarding a below average winter.the siberian high is a very rare visitor these days so if it shows its hand its a bonus! The qbo and nao remain the main players for me.gp made a good point the other day regarding higher than normal sea temps in the north atlantic and around greenland! Thses anomilies are possibly the biggest pointer towards a bocked and cold winter ie a negative nao.2010 shows this perfectly and is worth a look in the archives!

[UV-RAY]

What did you get in 91 in terms of level snow?

6 inches with drifts of around 2 feet.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 inches with drifts of around 2 feet.

 

I was in the West Midlands and got just under a foot - maybe a foot, my second biggest level snowfall ever and most of it fell in something like 5 and a half hours.

[Isolated Frost]

Not the biggest fan of straight E, or ESE flows- mostly cloudy and with some light snow/snizzle here in the NE; very cold though w/ some ice days and low minima, temps supressed- unless it's extremely cold, then heavy snow is possible.

 

Much prefer the NNE-NE-ENE flow with Ac air, from Scandinavia w/ an accompanied upper low in the Benelux-Germany-Alps-Baltic, large snow amounts likely w/ sunshine at times.

 

N-NNW-NW flows often provide mostly cold sunshine, with some rain/snow shrs depending on the airmass, a nice flow to have.

WNW-W-WSW-SW-SSW all seem to be milder (maybe not the first 2 at times) with cloud, sun, and sometimes rain/sleet.

 

S-SSE-SE very much dull and boring weather, sometimes cold, sometimes milder depending on the continent.

[feb1991blizzard]

Best GEFS suite so far coming up - a good 4 or 5 bring the sub zero isotherm in Manchester inside 180.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=224&y=43

[feb1991blizzard]

yes a lot of people in the NE tend to prefer NEerlies rather than Easterlies, for an absolute belter of an Eastery like 87 or 91, I think the best place to be is Central London believe it or not, that's where you can just sit back and watch the chaos unfold anyway!

 

 

[smithyweather]

6 inches with drifts of around 2 feet.

We had a few feet above 200' this March. But it was still crap.

As regards to the coming winter altho the snow cover to the north and east is important its not the main player regarding a below average winter.the siberian high is a very rare visitor these days so if it shows its hand its a bonus! The qbo and nao remain the main players for me.gp made a good point the other day regarding higher than normal sea temps in the north atlantic and around greenland! Thses anomilies are possibly the biggest pointer towards a bocked and cold winter ie a negative nao.2010 shows this perfectly and is worth a look in the archives!

What were the temp anomolies then? Any maps??

[Summer Sun]

Easterlies are only good for snow fans if the north sea is warmer than normal like it was in 2010 when bucket loads of snow fell

 

If the north sea is colder than normal like it was in March this year easterlies are pointless for snow fans as they deliver nothing but cloud and you then have to look for rain coming in from the west to hit the cold air like it did for those in the west back in March those east of the pennines didn't get much snow in March

 

As you can see below from the number of days snow was lying on the ground

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Easterlies are only good for snow fans if the north sea is warmer than normal like it was in 2010 when bucket loads of snow fell

 

If the north sea is colder than normal like it was in March this year easterlies are pointless for snow fans as they deliver nothing but cloud and you then have to look for rain coming in from the west to hit the cold air like it did for those in the west back in March those east of the pennines didn't get much snow in March

 

As you can see below from the number of days snow was lying on the ground

 

 

Any Easterly later than the end of February is pretty much a waste, not only the sea being at its coldest, but the beginning of the diurnal heating of the continent too.

December/January, sometimes Early Feb are the best times to get one as the continent is bitterly cold, and the sea still has that trigger of instability.

[feb1991blizzard]

Easterlies are only good for snow fans if the north sea is warmer than normal like it was in 2010 when bucket loads of snow fell

 

If the north sea is colder than normal like it was in March this year easterlies are pointless for snow fans as they deliver nothing but cloud and you then have to look for rain coming in from the west to hit the cold air like it did for those in the west back in March those east of the pennines didn't get much snow in March

 

As you can see below from the number of days snow was lying on the ground

 

 

Feb 91 I doubt the sea was warm and also people a bit further east than me got a bigger pasting back in March and some places West of me like Manchester got virtually jack, I got an absolute pasting but not as much as people further into the pennines.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seeing as there was talk of the October CET and following winter, I looked at the correlations.

 

Using just the raw October and following Winter CET, the correlation over the entire time series is 0.16 (r² of .026, so Oct explains 2.6% of the Winter variance), although weak, it is statistically significant and +ve, so indicates that mild Octobers are slightly more often than not, followed by mild Winters (and cold followed by cold). As both show a strong warming trend, it may be the trend that shows the correlation, rather than October having predictive value for the following Winter

 

October CET ............................ .......................... Winter CET

 

 

 

So by removing the long term warming trend, we can get a better idea of the relationship between October and the following Winter

 

October Detrended .................. .................... Winter Detrended

 

 

With the warming trend removed from both, the correlation drops to just +0.1, with a r² of 0.01 (which means October CET explains about 1% of the Winter variance) which is no longer statistically significant and suggests that the October CET has no useful predictive value for the following Winter.