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Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14


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#801 BornFromTheVoid

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 12:26

It's 4 days with no appreciable sea ice growth now. We could well slip back into the lowest 5 on record during the weekend. Strong southerly winds continue to flow over the Kara/Barents region, as well as around the Bering strait now, affecting the Chukchi and Bering seas. The main areas for growth over the next 5 days will be the Baffin sea and Hudson Bay.

 

The average increase for 2002-2012 over the next 5 days is 63k/day, while the 2007-2012 average is 61k/day.

According to the IJIS stats, a growth of anything less than 65k/day will put 2013 in the lowest 5 on record, while less than 20k/day will achieve the lowest 3 on record, by next Wednesday.

 

Something to keep an eye on.


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"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 27.4C June 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 15.0C June 14th


#802 Skulltheruler

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 09:35

This is on a LSS Come on guys lets see some posts in here.Besides..

 

SOME MORE SNOW COVER IN SOUTHERN RUSSIA!

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


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Winter 2013-2014 Battleground

March 2014 May be Cold.... 

A Ice Age Soon?

 


#803 BornFromTheVoid

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 11:46

After a drop of 31k, we've now had no sea ice growth for 5 days, so it's becoming more and more unusual.

We've dropped below 2007 and 2010, so we're now 4th lowest on record. If we don't increase by at least 24k tomorrow we'll be 3rd lowest on record for the time of year..


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"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 27.4C June 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 15.0C June 14th


#804 Buriedundersnow

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 12:34

don't know if this has been added here but thought I would drop it in

 

http://www.thegwpf.o...-record-growth/


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#805 BornFromTheVoid

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 12:44

don't know if this has been added here but thought I would drop it in

 

http://www.thegwpf.o...-record-growth/

 

It's not too hard to achieve record growth coming from record lows though. 

global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

http://arctic.atmos....a.withtrend.jpg

 

 

Antarctic sea ice is currently at record highs, but this should probably be kept to the northern hemisphere.

The thread on Antarctica is here you're interested http://forum.netweat...cussion/page-33


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"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 27.4C June 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 15.0C June 14th


#806 gottolovethisweather

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 13:05

After a drop of 31k, we've now had no sea ice growth for 5 days, so it's becoming more and more unusual.

We've dropped below 2007 and 2010, so we're now 4th lowest on record. If we don't increase by at least 24k tomorrow we'll be 3rd lowest on record for the time of year..

 

Hi BFTV,

 

I notice you are showing a lot of interest in the lack of sea ice growth, can you explain in layman's terms why this aspect is fascinating and how it likely effect our part of the world. friends.gif   I do find certain aspects of meteorology quite baffling and often struggle to link these hemispheric processes. As these short-term losses or lack of increases in sea ice are occurring over the other side of the globe, I can't comprehend how it could potentially effect us. Is it all linked to pacific ridges and stratospheric processes for example? good.gif


Edited by gottolovethisweather, 09 November 2013 - 14:04 .

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Formally STORMBOY, come visit my Blog http://naturestimeline.com/ to learn more about this slightly eccentric anorak, who goes by the name of Tony!

Finally, two quotes from two very different recent Winters.

"Wasn't it enough that we lived through the coldest December for over 100 years that no one alive has experienced?" and "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"


#807 BornFromTheVoid

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 14:12

Hi BFTV,

 

I notice you are showing a lot of interest in the lack of sea ice growth, can you explain in layman's terms why this aspect is fascinating and how it likely effect our part of the world. friends.gif.pagespeed.ce.rWvE6ZZpSc.gif   I do find certain aspects of meteorology quite baffling and often struggle to link these hemispheric processes. As this short-term losses or lack of increases in sea ice is occurring over the side of the globe, I can't comprehend how it could potentially effect us. Is it all linked to pacific ridges and stratospheric processes for example? good.gif.pagespeed.ce.REVKgma6uw.gif

 

I find sea ice in general quite interesting (did my undergrad dissertation sea ice and weather), because of what a big impact it can have and how dynamic it is. It's one of the few things were you can study how the weather, natural cycles, climate and other things can influence it on a variety of time scales. There are many sources of info on it too, which are updated daily and can make monitoring the sea ice, even for the layman, interesting and easy.

For example, during the summer, the GFS might show a strong storm forming over the sea ice. You can then track that storm using satellite imagery, watch in near real-time as it churns and breaks up the sea ice, track how it affects the coverage compared to the long term daily data, monitor the floating buoys to see how it affecting the ocean, if it's causing warm salty water to upwell, follow the polar ship's webcams as they survey the areas taking detailed measurements and much more, all from the comfort of your own home!

 

The current conditions won't necessarily impact our weather, but to go this long without sea ice growth is highly unusual, so I think it warrants regular updates.

 

As it is, daily to weekly changes in Arctic sea ice are unlikely to affect us during the winter (much like the snow cover), but on time scales of months to seasons, it can certainly can have a big impact. If you'd like, I can make a detailed post on how monthly to seasonal sea ice variations may influence our weather in general?


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"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 27.4C June 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 15.0C June 14th


#808 gottolovethisweather

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 14:22

 

I find sea ice in general quite interesting (did my undergrad dissertation sea ice and weather), because of what a big impact it can have and how dynamic it is. It's one of the few things were you can study how the weather, natural cycles, climate and other things can influence it on a variety of time scales. There are many sources of info on it too, which are updated daily and can make monitoring the sea ice, even for the layman, interesting and easy.

For example, during the summer, the GFS might show a strong storm forming over the sea ice. You can then track that storm using satellite imagery, watch in near real-time as it churns and breaks up the sea ice, track how it affects the coverage compared to the long term daily data, monitor the floating buoys to see how it affecting the ocean, if it's causing warm salty water to upwell, follow the polar ship's webcams as they survey the areas taking detailed measurements and much more, all from the comfort of your own home!

 

The current conditions won't necessarily impact our weather, but to go this long without sea ice growth is highly unusual, so I think it warrants regular updates.

 

As it is, daily to weekly changes in Arctic sea ice are unlikely to affect us during the winter (much like the snow cover), but on time scales of months to seasons, it can certainly can have a big impact. If you'd like, I can make a detailed post on how monthly to seasonal sea ice variations may influence our weather in general?

 

 

Thanks BFTV, I found that most informative and learned a lot from it. Yes, if you do get a chance, I'm sure a lot of folk in here including myself would find further explanations most useful. I must say I should get my head in the textbooks and journal sources more often but most of the time such tasks get put on the backburner.


  • 1

Formally STORMBOY, come visit my Blog http://naturestimeline.com/ to learn more about this slightly eccentric anorak, who goes by the name of Tony!

Finally, two quotes from two very different recent Winters.

"Wasn't it enough that we lived through the coldest December for over 100 years that no one alive has experienced?" and "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"


#809 BornFromTheVoid

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 15:58

Thanks BFTV, I found that most informative and learned a lot from it. Yes, if you do get a chance, I'm sure a lot of folk in here including myself would find further explanations most useful. I must say I should get my head in the textbooks and journal sources more often but most of the time such tasks get put on the backburner.

 

I'll be away for a few days, so it might be Monday or Tuesday before I can post up something detailed.

 

In the meantime, the first thing I did with sea ice was download the NSIDC data from here and here, and put it into a spreadsheet, like excel and start making graphs and doing some basic analysis. There's a lot that can be learned from playing with those numbers, looking for things that stand out, comparing to the daily concentration maps like on here, or reanalysis charts, or other weather charts. That's how I started on anyway!


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"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom." Isaac Asimov


"It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring." Carl Sagan


Maximum Temp 2014: 27.4C June 18th

Highest Minimum 2014: 15.0C June 14th


#810 Skulltheruler

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Posted 09 November 2013 - 17:17

This the archive for the snow cover 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/


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Winter 2013-2014 Battleground

March 2014 May be Cold.... 

A Ice Age Soon?

 


#811 gottolovethisweather

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 14:50

Wot no updates for two days. cray.gif

 

Check out the latest imagery courtesy of NOAA, Snow and Ice is appearing everywhere else on our latitude. search.gif

 

 

101113 Northern Hemisphere snow and ice - noaa.gov.png

 

I feel that even a Northwesterly flow would be distinctly chilly at this rate given the increase in ice around Greenland and Iceland, small wonder the Geese have moved on. acute.gif  

 

Now we reached the date of Maximum warmth for Autumn by tomorrow, anything from the 13th onwards could feel much more seasonal. Things look likely to change before too long given the forecast changes in the Jetstream and other outside influence. Just a case of yet more baby steps before this current weather changes from its nappies and matures into giving something more comfortable and seasonal. rofl.gif

 

 

 


Edited by gottolovethisweather, 11 November 2013 - 14:51 .

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Formally STORMBOY, come visit my Blog http://naturestimeline.com/ to learn more about this slightly eccentric anorak, who goes by the name of Tony!

Finally, two quotes from two very different recent Winters.

"Wasn't it enough that we lived through the coldest December for over 100 years that no one alive has experienced?" and "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"


#812 LincolnSnowstorm

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 00:33

pretty decent  progress of the snow filling out this month so far  picasion.com_6c9bbabfe2654753d11db5669bf5fa6a.gif winter draws on, would be nice for the UK to join in the fun before the end of the month.


Edited by LincolnSnowstorm, 12 November 2013 - 00:49 .

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If you are into snow here is a very interesting website http://www.SnowCrystals.com http://www.its.calte...c/snowcrystals/

#813 SomeLikeItHot

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:53

 

 

Now we reached the date of Maximum warmth for Autumn by tomorrow,

 

What does this mean? Date of maximum warmth for Autumn?

 

Doesn't feel like the Warmest day in Autum to me, but I suspect you mean something more subtle I'm not aware of.


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#814 gottolovethisweather

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:45


SomeLikeItHot asked.

What does this mean? Date of maximum warmth for Autumn?

 

Doesn't feel like the Warmest day in Autum to me, but I suspect you mean something more subtle I'm not aware of.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Sorry SLIH, I wasn't very clear there was I, I was attempting to refer to the fact judging by current forecasts we are unlikely to exceed Today's Maximums after today's date for the rest of Autumn. Okay, that comment in itself, incorporated my own local Temps, however I am reasonably confident a cool down is the only way forward from today, but time will tell of course.

 

Here is a post on my local regional containing an ensemble backing up my analysis as the 12th November being a key timeframe. I will attach an updated ensembles chart for comparison, which will take us forward to 28th November, so almost into Winter. drinks.gifThese are very useful guidance tools when studied over like for like runs (I personally usually use 12z daily runs), they enable you to determine a comparative trends, in this case by isolating the t850s. *Note after the 12th November as I suggested, the uppers should never reach the dizzy heights of 10c as they were shown to by today's date in my original post. good.gif

 

http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2829805

 

 

Now an ensembles for Essex from this morning's output.

 

 

GFS Essex t850s out to 28113.png

 

Right, back on track and let's get searching for the greatly anticipated change in wind direction come the weekend. clapping.gif


Edited by gottolovethisweather, 12 November 2013 - 13:12 .

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Formally STORMBOY, come visit my Blog http://naturestimeline.com/ to learn more about this slightly eccentric anorak, who goes by the name of Tony!

Finally, two quotes from two very different recent Winters.

"Wasn't it enough that we lived through the coldest December for over 100 years that no one alive has experienced?" and "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"


#815 SomeLikeItHot

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 13:05

Right. Yes I agree, seems unlikely we will hit that high a value again this autumn.


Edited by SomeLikeItHot, 12 November 2013 - 13:05 .

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#816 IBTHToThoseShortwaves

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 20:07

pretty decent  progress of the snow filling out this month so far  attachicon.gif.pagespeed.ce.hPGJFKgqtP.gpicasion.com_6c9bbabfe2654753d11db5669bf5fa6a.gif winter draws on, would be nice for the UK to join in the fun before the end of the month.

 

If you Zoom in, you will see white pixels in Scotland AND England now. Getting there slowly.

 

Also, the Ice does appear to be inching closer to Iceland..... What a moment it would be if it could reach the north shore of Iceland this year!!


Edited by IBringTheHammer, 12 November 2013 - 20:08 .

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Height ASL: 200m

Date of first snow fall locally: 6th Dec
Number of Days of falling snow for winter 2013/14: < 1
Total number of inches of laying snow for winter 2013/14
: < 1

Coldest Temp Recorded for winter 2013/14:  (Technically Autumn: -4 @ 08:10 19/11/2013)

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#817 Ice Day

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 22:30

Interesting side by side comparison for today vs Tuesday last week.  Impressive gains for both snow and sea ice!

 

prvsnow_asiaeurope.gif  ims2013309_asiaeurope.gif


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Near Chelmsford, Essex

#818 LincolnSnowstorm

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 22:48

Today's zoom...Getting there slowly one step at a time.Untitled.png

patience needed by me to wait for widespread wintry weather sorry.gif ...may have to wait till winter for it! 



If you Zoom in, you will see white pixels in Scotland AND England now. Getting there slowly.

 

Also, the Ice does appear to be inching closer to Iceland..... What a moment it would be if it could reach the north shore of Iceland this year!!

 

A ice bridge to Iceland would be amazing and so cool to see but it would need loads more ice than we have I believe.


Edited by LincolnSnowstorm, 12 November 2013 - 22:54 .

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If you are into snow here is a very interesting website http://www.SnowCrystals.com http://www.its.calte...c/snowcrystals/

#819 NorthernRab

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 22:59

There isn't one in England? Must've melted since yesterday, soon be back though! drinks.gif


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Inbhir Nis, Priomh-Bhaile na Gaidhealtachd - Inverness, the Highland Capital.

Lowest Mininum Temperatures (Inbhir Nis / Inverness):
2007: - 13.4C; 17th December
2008: - 12.9'C; 30th December.
2009: - 15.4'C; 29th December.
2010: - 14.2'C; 29th November.
2011: - 8.6'C; 7th January.
2012: - 9.2'C; 7th February
2013: - 9.1'C, 11th March

This winter: -5.0'C, 25th November

Suas Le Clann Na Cloiche


#820 IBTHToThoseShortwaves

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 23:17

Its on yesterdays Gif.
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Height ASL: 200m

Date of first snow fall locally: 6th Dec
Number of Days of falling snow for winter 2013/14: < 1
Total number of inches of laying snow for winter 2013/14
: < 1

Coldest Temp Recorded for winter 2013/14:  (Technically Autumn: -4 @ 08:10 19/11/2013)

Check out my college project!





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