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Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

It looks huge! Very cool!

 

I wont debase the high standards of this forum :rofl:

 

Looking relatively quiet convective wise looking through the longer term charts....looks as though ridging to the south might raise temperatures nicely across the S half of the UK but at the same time stifle convection potential.

 

Outside shot at a plume come mid-late August as our southerly ridge may nudge northeastwards, but pinch of salt territory at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Looking relatively quiet convective wise looking through the longer term charts....looks as though ridging to the south might raise temperatures nicely across the S half of the UK but at the same time stifle convection potential.

 

:good: 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Although, think about it.. wouldn't it be nice for high pressure to come back into force to give us some nice summer heat again before its too late in the year...? And with a bit of luck, if high pressure were to dominate, it could end with another plume!

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

Although, think about it.. wouldn't it be nice for high pressure to come back into force to give us some nice summer heat again before its too late in the year...? And with a bit of luck, if high pressure were to dominate, it could end with another plume!

very true, but dont forget october can deliver heat in the mid twenties celcius as was proved two years ago Posted Image

and cold uppers in september are also good for thundery showers in the Irish sea, but this only happens if the sea is very warm after a hot summer, so some late summer heat is needed to keep the irish sea warm,  not only that it can aid wintry convection  too  in winter if the SST warmth is retained,,,,,so cold lovers should be wanting that heat intead of dissing itPosted Image   , thundersnow anyone   

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

30c was achieved on 1st Oct 2011 and September can bring both heat and storms. So plenty of time for both yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Synopsis

 

A sharpening upper trough will track eastwards across the British Isles through the first half of Friday, with a strong jet on it's southwestern flank. Small potential exists for some isolated lightning activity.

 

Discussion

 

Along and behind the eastward-moving surface occlusion, some instability (e.g. a couple hundred J/kg CAPE) is likely to be present beneath the upper trough axis and the left exit of the jet. Some convective elements are expected on the back edge and immediately behind the surface occlsuion, with a post-frontal shortwave trough forecast as a mid-level dry slot arrives from the west. There is a low potential of sporadic lightning activity if any stronger cells can develop in an environment with 30-40kts DLS, during the early hours of Friday morning.

Greatest focus is over East Anglia and SE England, between 08z-13z where diurnal heating may aid in rather meagre instability already present. Again, lightning activity will be fairly isolated (if any at all), but worth highlighting the (rather low) potential.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/270

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Funnel cloud seen from my house at 3:50pm this afternoon in near Cross Hands, Carmarthenshire - almost certainly the same one in Bobby's pic:

Posted Imagefunnel1.jpg

Posted Imagefunnel2.jpg

 

Rainfall radar for the same time:

Posted Imagefunnel_radar.jpg

 

We only had moderate rain here afterwards - I think most of the rain was further to the east.

 

Probably one of the best and most photogenic funnels I have seen in a long time if ever. Looks like it'd have been a wedge had it touched down. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Had a fantastic storm around midnight was in bthrm missed the start! it was the best night storm so far, strong gusts torrential rain, fast moving clouds, inbetween star skies. Really is an amazing summer, this is like days and nights of the 80s and 90s

 

I posted this 3rd Aug

That was an amazing storm alot of excitment on here that night!

The warning signs in the sky were there a a day or two before the storms developed, these were (some mixed with other) Altocumulus Floccus and Cas..

I did not get chance to upload the pics as was on mobile so here they are:

post-11361-0-39453200-1375982655_thumb.j

post-11361-0-27990200-1375982654_thumb.j

post-11361-0-21154000-1375982653_thumb.j

post-11361-0-86142200-1375982651_thumb.j

post-11361-0-68625300-1375982649_thumb.j

post-11361-0-32734700-1375982648_thumb.j

post-11361-0-10539200-1375982647_thumb.j

-

Some nice cumulonimbus built up today quite a tower lots of layered bubbles earlier.

 

Been working on a new idea for a convective warning map, here is a demo of the map, these will be experimented  with next week, I might consider using the same maps for winter snow for example, I wanted to create a simple easy to understand alert map, below is the demo map and a color key guide. I would appreciate your thoughts on the idea.

Thanks.

post-11361-0-68627600-1375982973_thumb.g

(Demo alert map not a forecast)

Convective warning system - ESS

Level 4 - Red Alert = Extreme and Violent Thunderstorms.

Level 3 - Orange Alert =  Severe Thunderstorms.

Level 2 - Yellow Alert = Thunderstorms.

Level 1 - Green Alert = Heavy showers/Thunder.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

That was an amazing storm alot of excitment on here that night!

The warning signs in the sky were there a a day or two before the storms developed, these were (some mixed with other) Altocumulus Floccus and Cas..

I did not get chance to upload the pics as was on mobile so here they are:

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (7).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (6).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (5).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (4).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (3).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (2).jpg

Posted ImageClouds - 4 - Mid level cloud - very hot day (1).jpg

-

Some nice cumulonimbus built up today quite a tower lots of layered bubbles earlier.

 

Been working on a new idea for a convective warning map, here is a demo of the map, these will be experimented  with next week, I might consider using the same maps for winter snow for example, I wanted to create a simple easy to understand alert map, below is the demo map and a color key guide. I would appreciate your thoughts on the idea.

Thanks.

Posted ImageConvective warning system - Yellow Alert - DEMO-smaller2.gif

(Demo alert map not a forecast)

Convective warning system - ESS

Level 4 - Red Alert = Extreme and Violent Thunderstorms.

Level 3 - Orange Alert =  Severe Thunderstorms.

Level 2 - Yellow Alert = Thunderstorms.

Level 1 - Green Alert = Heavy showers/Thunder.

I think its a great idea. However I would probably use Blue instead of Green for Level 1.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Don't know whats going to happen with this 100f supposed heatwave business, but GFS has gone bonkers suggesting it later and into FI. I mean the temperatures would be great, but the storms that would come off from it will be insane by the looks of it, defo no Eastward shift looking at this one as it stands !! No doubt it will end up that way though :(!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Probably one of the best and most photogenic funnels I have seen in a long time if ever. Looks like it'd have been a wedge had it touched down. Posted Image

 

Cheers - I did a double take when I saw it, as I could hardly believe something like that was so close!

 

Some news articles for anyone interested: 

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2013-08-07/dramatic-photo-of-funnel-cloud-in-carmarthenshire/

http://www.southwalesguardian.co.uk/news/10600682.__39_Tornado__39__spotted_over_Llandybie_/

 

I'm not aware of any reports suggesting severe weather in the area so am assuming it didn't come close to touching down.  

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Another funnel cloud was spotted yesterday apparently, this over Brecon at 4:15pm

 

 

There was definitely a convergence going on yesterday, during one of the downpours here first the clouds were moving from the E, then N then the S.

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Mum seems to think she's just seen a faint flash.. Hmm. Sky is incredibly dark and it's throwing it down!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Morning all

a rude awakening this morning with a Thunderstorm and heavy rain didnt expect that.

LO

 

Must admit I wasn't expecting anything anywhere!

 

Posted Image

 

But there it is!

 

 

post-6667-0-42138600-1376034508_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Possibly something of interest for parts of Northern Wales and Central England for Sunday early morning as NAE predicts a line of moderate showers moving east. 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Posted Image

High cloud for 3am seems interesting too in the areas where the precipitation is expected to fall, suggesting cumulonimbus?

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Possibly something of interest for parts of Northern Wales and Central England for Sunday early morning as NAE predicts a line of moderate showers moving east. 

 

 

GFS not picking up on it, just plenty of rain coming in:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Synopsis

 

Broad upper trough shifts slowly eastwards across northern Britain and the Faeroes, introducing colder air in the mid and upper levels, steepening mid-level lapse rates. An active day of convective showers (some thundery) is expected across many northern parts of Britain.

 

Discussion

 

Beneath the base of a broad upper trough, with jet aloft, numerous showers are expected throughout Sunday across northern Britain, becoming widespread during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating aids convective development, allowing a few thunderstorms to develop. 30-40kts will allow convection to become well-organised, perhaps forming into distinct/lines bands with aid from low-level convergence or confluence and/or shortwave troughs. Some hail is possible in many showers, perhaps locally up to 1.0cm in diameter.

ISOL has been extended to southern Britain to cater for early showers during the morning in associated with a shortwave trough/frontal wave migrating eastwards. The probability for lightning with this feature is considered very low, however.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/271

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Sneaky peak at tomorrow late afternoon looks interesting in the NE:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Thursday posing fairly widespread potential?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Updated at 07:35 this morning

 

Synopsis

 

Broad upper trough shifts slowly eastwards across northern Britain and the Faeroes, introducing colder air in the mid and upper levels, steepening mid-level lapse rates. An active day of convective showers (some thundery) is expected across many northern parts of Britain.

 

Discussion

 

Beneath the base of a broad upper trough, with jet aloft, numerous showers are expected throughout Sunday across northern Britain, becoming widespread during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating aids convective development, allowing a few thunderstorms to develop. 30-40kts will allow convection to become well-organised, perhaps forming into distinct/lines bands with aid from low-level convergence or confluence and/or shortwave troughs. Some hail is possible in many showers, perhaps locally up to 1.0cm in diameter.

ISOL has been extended to southern Britain to cater for early showers during the morning in association with a shortwave trough/frontal wave migrating eastwards. The probability for lightning with this feature is considered very low, however.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/271

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Synopsis

 

Sharpening upper trough drifts slowly eastwards from Britain across the North Sea. Cool air aloft will lead to another active day of convection, with a few thunderstorms possible.

 

Discussion

 

Beneath the base of a sharpening upper trough, numerous showers are expected throughout Monday across northern and eastern Britain, becoming widespread during the afternoon and evening as diurnal heating aids convective development, allowing a few thunderstorms to develop. Small hail is possible in some showers, perhaps locally up to 1.0cm in diameter.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/272

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

ESTOFEX just scraping in the North of England today:

 

 

post-6667-0-88161400-1376289988_thumb.pn

 

... Rest of the lightning areas ...

Daytime driven and non-severe thunderstorms are forecast beneath the base of the extensive upper level trough. Marginal hail and gusty winds accompany those storms, which gradually decay after sunset. Only offshore convection keeps going all night long. A few cold-core funnels/isolated tornadoes are possible with enhanced LL CAPE profiles.Over S/C Sweden, SE Norway and S-Finland, SBCAPE probably approaches 800 J/kg during the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe pulse storms may occur with isolated large hail and heavy rain. The risk however remains too limited for any level area.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS has this for today:

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Convergence down the Eastern coast facing the North Sea:

 

Posted Image

 

What a mess!

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
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