Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Lazz]

The Bognor Regis webcam might be worth watching. (If you hover your cursor over the image, you get the full screen option. Better than the postage stamp!)

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

 

Thanks for that link. One of the few webcams that is actually a good frame rate and looks good while full screen.

[Bobby]

A cell looks like it will be hitting here soon. Skies going dark to the S.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very much a NNE trajectory for the stuff in the Channel so will run further west than may have been thought.I would say thundery as far west as Bristol / Bath rain to the west of that.

 

Yes that stuff running up into east Devon/Dorset looks interesting.

Edited July 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[Dan the Man]

Not sure those holidaymakers at Bognor will be there much longer!

[A.J]

currently 22C  with a DP of 14.5C, under a thick Ac band with some stratoform.....air feels relatively stable currently, but eyes to the south and the radar infers increased instability not too far away

Edited July 27, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Harry]

just looked at XCWeather - big differences in humidity between most of South and the S-East S-East, London etc reporting dewpoints of 16-18C elsewhere 7-11C

Can vouch for that....been climbing all day!!! 28.5C being reported by the car...if we are in fact in the plume perhaps it is more accurate than I thought....after 33C on Monday and 26-28C most of this week I suppose it wouldn't feel that remarkable lol.

[Dan the Man]

and looks like decaying

 

I wouldn't say that there are that many visible signs of decay - and obviously 75 miles of English channel will gain a fair bit of energy.

[littlemissy]

Heavy rain here in Welly Somerset, now.A friend of mine in Newton Abbot said it had been raining steadily there this morning.

[nanu]

The Bognor Regis webcam might be worth watching. (If you hover your cursor over the image, you get the full screen option. Better than the postage stamp!)

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

Bloody seagulls....SHUTUP!!

[Evening thunder]

Something looking increasingly interesting to my south, getting darker with increasingly well defined rain shaft, and just heard thunder!

[VillagePlank]

GooFuS 6z analysis,

 

Low pressure forms in Bay of Biscay and moves North Eastwards to SE England, where it stalls for a little and deepens,

 

 

The low pressure tracks up between two air masses (a cold front), as the low tracks up the boundary between the air masses it destabilises the air due to the difference in high theta-e air to the south and low theta-e air to the north,

 

 

The northern boundary between the theta-e air is where lift will be at it's strongest. Showers that form will become organised quickly into - at least - MCS in the presence of deep level shear > 20m/s, and favourable lapse rates mean that this shear will coincide with developing CAPE, and LI

 

 

Organisation of storms will be quite marked in places, implying possible supercellular structures, particularly around the London area,

 

 

Along with this, low-level shear (< 1km) also indicates the possibility of tornadic development later in the forecast but these should be weak and mainly the risk is around NE London/Essex. The risk of large hail (>1cm) is restricted to the Kent south coast. Whilst prolonged showers are more likely much later in the Midlands, the chance of excessive precipitation over a smaller amount of time is more likely in Kent, Essex, and E Anglia, where the mixing ratio is higher,

 

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[mackerel sky]

Checked my weather station out with the local one, pretty much in agreement. I have 26.7C currently with a DP of 15C.

http://www.stanwickweather.org.uk/graphhome.php

Absolutely roasting in the sun with the humidity!

Feels hotter than when it topped out at 32C recently!

[NOAJOA]

if i look out the window out to see i can definitely see darker clouds but unable to see any cbs...

[Adi F]

right I am off to see where I get too. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Comparing radar to GFS simulation, that whole mass to the SW looks 50-100 miles further west.

[Anvils in the Sky]

Thanks for that link. One of the few webcams that is actually a good frame rate and looks good while full screen.

If storms do hit that part of the coast, not sure we'll hear the thunder via that webcam due to all those seagulls squawking!

 

Edit: both Blitzortung and Sat24 seem to suggest to me the Caen storm is indeed starting to head more northwards. Not as good for here, but better for seeing on the Bognor Regis webcam!

[nanu]

if i look out the window out to see i can definitely see darker clouds but unable to see any cbs...

stick a pair of sunglasses on.. prob see the outline then

[Lazz]

If storms do hit that part of the coast, not sure we'll hear the thunder via that webcam due to all those seagulls squawking!

 

Edit: both Blitzortung and Sat24 seem to suggest to me the Caen storm is indeed starting to head more northwards. Not as good for here, but better for seeing on the Bognor Regis webcam!

 

I was actually sitting here and I kept hearing seagulls and wondering why on earth they'd be outside my house given I live not too far from Nottingham . Of course narrowing down the origin of the sound to my headphones solved the problem

[Dan the Man]

Anecdotally, that system coming out of Biscay is getting bigger and bigger. Looking good.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I was actually sitting here and I kept hearing seagulls and wondering why on earth they'd be outside my house given I live not too far from Nottingham . Of course narrowing down the origin of the sound to my headphones solved the problem

 

We've had them here for weeks. I'm inland so maybe it's a bit of a holiday for them?!

[Convective]

Great uncertainty as to how far north the thundery element will reach however its certainly a possibility for it to get this far. Expect home grown thunderstorms over the majority of Ireland and a risk of thundery showers over most parts of Scotland.

[NOAJOA]

stick a pair of sunglasses on.. prob see the outline then

yes i can now...still cant see the anvil but definitely looking tasty, thanks for the advice!

[Harry]

Perfect conditions and viewing territory!

If the storms do swing further West hopefully ill get some nice pics not all bad!!!

(not got used the camera on this flaming pad lol!!)

Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[Methuselah]

Perfect conditions and viewing territory!

If the storms do swing further West hopefully ill get some nice pics not all bad!!!

Another one for the Aussie thread, Harry! 

[poseidon]

feels very humid and warm here in Essex

27 degs in the car