South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[nanu]

Whats the odds on for the second cell now just south of cherbourg to drift right and go straight down the channel???

[Tom Jarvis]

It better not on its current track it is heading right for me lol

[Norfolk Sheep]

Well well, what a surprise - complete downgrade on the BBC lunchtime forecast for the east, with the bulk of the rain moving through central areas according to them. Local BBC forecast said the same thing "not as bad as was thought yesterday, but the potential for heavier bursts of rain in the west of the region" or something along those lines.  Great. Just great. When will the east of E Anglia get an accurate forecast for rain, or is it best to ignore the Beeb completely (and thus the Met) ??

[Tom Jarvis]

Here it comes nice batch of lightning coming out of France now

Edited July 27, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[80sWeather]

Wow Kent/Sussex peeps, thats a nice looking storm incoming!

[nanu]

It better not on its current track it is heading right for me lol

well over the last few storms that are on that currant track they seem to get dragged down the channel.. god knows what kind of force is in place out there, so lets see what happens and hope it stays on its path at mo

[gottolovethisweather]

Well well, what a surprise - complete downgrade on the BBC lunchtime forecast for the east, with the bulk of the rain moving through central areas according to them. Local BBC forecast said the same thing "not as bad as was thought yesterday, but the potential for heavier bursts of rain in the west of the region" or something along those lines.  Great. Just great. When will the east of E Anglia get an accurate forecast for rain, or is it best to ignore the Beeb completely (and thus the Met) ??

 

You could always attempt your own forecasts.  

 

Just remember, the dynamics of the atmosphere around our island are ever changing, sometimes literally by the minute. IMHO, when rain, snow or whatever is forecast to come in from the West or North, the pros invariably get things right. When precipitation comes in from the East or South, that is when the failings occur.

[pinball wizard]

Well well, what a surprise - complete downgrade on the BBC lunchtime forecast for the east, with the bulk of the rain moving through central areas according to them. Local BBC forecast said the same thing "not as bad as was thought yesterday, but the potential for heavier bursts of rain in the west of the region" or something along those lines.  Great. Just great. When will the east of E Anglia get an accurate forecast for rain, or is it best to ignore the Beeb completely (and thus the Met) ??

 

I may be wrong but I always think in these situations its best to use forecasts to alert you to the potential for storms rather than take them as read. Nowcasting using radar and satellite is always the best way to go when you get to within 6 hours of the event, weekend forecasts especially are more likely to be pre-recorded or using out of date data, which when combined with the difficulty in forecasting storms of this type in the first place, means you are best off doing it yourself!

[Wivenswold]

Well well, what a surprise - complete downgrade on the BBC lunchtime forecast for the east, with the bulk of the rain moving through central areas according to them. Local BBC forecast said the same thing "not as bad as was thought yesterday, but the potential for heavier bursts of rain in the west of the region" or something along those lines.  Great. Just great. When will the east of E Anglia get an accurate forecast for rain, or is it best to ignore the Beeb completely (and thus the Met) ??

I'd ignore BBC Look East forecasts. They're usually different to the national one that follows. 

 

You'll get better updates on here.

[Weather Boy]

Hi,

 

I'm not sure if anyone caught this post from the MOD thread, but I think this is fair assessment from OMM of today's unfolding situation.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

It is tempting at this stage to claim the forecast from yesterday was all wrong, but this is still a developing situation.

 

The frontal boundary right now has a N-S orientation but upper winds are still SSW so everything is currently shifted further E. But the satellite presentation shows the boundary is forming a wave to the S and storms are still developing just to the E of it.

 

What I find particularly interesting is the huge storm cell that moved up the Channel overnight. It's appearance on satellite gives every impression of it being a meso-cyclone; the cirrus outflow is like a mini-hurricane, so it is so powerful it has created this. I don't recall seeing such a storm in a long time.

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

 

 

Rain seems to be gathering to the S, so anything might happen as the day goes on.

 

The model longer term outlook brings us firmly into Atlantic air, at least for a time, but the prospect remains for another plume situation developing in a few days.

 

Fascinating weather!

 

Absolutely agree with OMM's final sentiment: very interesting today!

 

I also echo Fine Wine's post.  Beautiful sunny day at my location and if it stays that way could well be 28C this afternoon.  It completely mystified me why the Meto were suggesting a max of 22-23 for my location given the uppers that have been forecast for about a week.

 

They were wrong about that, but will they also wrong about the wet weather coming?  If they are, then it's not that often these days that the Met get it totally wrong at less than 24 hours out.  Probably it's just delayed and it will be this evening rather than this afternoon as forecast.  However, currently nothing to speak of on the netweather radar except in the North Sea.

 

I currently have not a cloud in the sky except that to the north I can see substantial thickening cirrus: I'd guess at least 20 miles away perhaps double that.  Can anyone in the Huntingdon/Peterborough/ Cambs generally except for the far south confirm that they have cloudier skies?

Edited July 27, 2013 by Weather Boy

[Tamara]

That initial 3pm estimate is looking like being sooner as the second batch of storms is already arriving at the North French coast

Edited July 27, 2013 by Tamara Road

[gottolovethisweather]

FWIW, my hunch is for things to go boom in the timeframe aforementioned by Tamara earlier, something within the region of mid afternoon to late evening. Hopefully some home grown tastiness.

 

Or maybe sooner - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/?p=2752822

 

Eyes on the skies, sat pics and radars from here on in methinks.

Edited July 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[legrandefromage]

Milky high cloud giving away to blue skys and scudding fair weather clouds

[Captain Shortwave]

The storm cell entering the channel now just west of Le Havre needs watching I think. I might be wrong but it might be heading our way. The previous storm seems to be clearing our area of the north sea and low and behold it's starting to brighten up a little

Edited July 27, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Norfolk Sheep]

You could always attempt your own forecasts.  

 

Just remember, the dynamics of the atmosphere around our island are ever changing, sometimes literally by the minute. IMHO, when rain, snow or whatever is forecast to come in from the West or North, the pros invariably get things right. When precipitation comes in from the East or South, that is when the failings occur.

Indeed!! These days I tend to ignore local forecasts, however they must be getting their info from somewhere   Mostly I look out of the windows, stick my finger in the air and decide whether to hang out the washing or not My main concern is obviously a lack of rain, and now the numpties on the Mid Norfolk railway are running steam again, probably based on yesterday's forecast.....better roll out the hoses again.....

[Weather Boy]

That initial 3pm estimate is looking like being sooner as the second batch of storms is already arriving at the North French coast

 

Do you have a link to a good satellite view of that region, please?

 

Not sure what you mean by 'sooner' (sooner than what?) but the BBC forecast I just watched had the S Midlands southwards covered with rain by 2 pm and I can't see that being the case.  Surely it's at least late?

 

From the limited radar I've got these storms at the moment seem rather limited in scope i.e around Cherbourg and Le Havre (if my geography is right), but hence my request for a link to satellite of that area as I assume that there is much more behind what I can see on the French coast.

[Anvils in the Sky]

First strikes leaving the French coast between Cherbourg and Le Havre. The storm appears to be heading our way at the moment. But let's see what the Channel decides to do to it.

 

Meanwhile, it has shot up to a very humid 25.1° here, under almost clear skies. (Just some mid-high level stuff moving up from the south as I type.)

[Anvils in the Sky]

Do you have a link to a good satellite view of that region, please?

 

Is this any good?

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr

 

You can click on any area, and it zooms in for you. (Lightning on/off option down in the bottom right-hand corner.)

Edited July 27, 2013 by Anvils in the Sky

[Methuselah]

The storm cell entering the channel now just west of Le Havre needs watching I think. I might be wrong but it might be heading our way. The previous storm seems to be clearing our area of the north sea and low and behold it's starting to brighten up a little

That must be the one with the 'westward correction', SC...I'm not hold out on too much hope mate...And, as NS says, the local forecasts are just as bad as the national ones...

[DeepSnow]

I'm in London for the weekend so I hope to catch a storm as haven't had a proper one this year!

[k66yla]

Have now finished work so the storms can commence. I think this morning was the quickest I've ever managed to do my delivery.......not wanting to be out in the storm gave me a huge incentive to get a move on.

[legrandefromage]

its fun this isnt it? almost as fun as the snow ramping not that long ago...

[Tamara]

Do you have a link to a good satellite view of that region, please?

 

Not sure what you mean by 'sooner' (sooner than what?) but the BBC forecast I just watched had the S Midlands southwards covered with rain by 2 pm and I can't see that being the case.  Surely it's at least late?

 

From the limited radar I've got these storms at the moment seem rather limited in scope i.e around Cherbourg and Le Havre (if my geography is right), but hence my request for a link to satellite of that area as I assume that there is much more behind what I can see on the French coast.

I was referring to my post on the previous page. I had suggested 3pm. I simply use this site

 

http://meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1

 

my instincts and my eyes towards the channel

[Jan_Bromley]

Doppler radar clearly shows The initial french storm diving away to Belgium and Holland.

 

However, Cherbourg is definately sending something up S/SE

 

http://www.weather2day.com/radar/uk/23

[Tom Montalbano]

Looks like the storm is taking a more motherly direction

 

Great news for Brontophobes then, maybe it will be in touch with it's feminine side and wont be so nasty!

 

Fancy forming a comedy duo Tom, how about "The Two Tommies". Sorry, did I say comedy, bit of an exaggeration there.

 

Hi Tamara,

 

That looks a pretty sound analysis of yours, thanks. I would suggest, as you state, the area of strongest ppn/thunder will be flirting with the Sussex/Kent coast, during the early evening period, with Brontophobes B.P, heart rates returning to more normal values, as darkness falls, more so areas south of the Thames.

 

Regards,

Tom.

Edited July 27, 2013 by TomBR7