Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards

[Jane Louise]

New thread here folks. . Hopefully some of us will be out of the NSC by the end of the week!  time will tell of course !Good luck all and do keep safe.

 

[ChezWeather]

Think i will remain in the NSC after this so called "action"

 

Good Luck Everybody! 

[Sainsbo]

For once, I think my town may be in the firing line for some big storms in the next few days. Obviously they will be hit and miss, and the forecast may change between now and then, but all in all, I do think that the storms will be widespread enough to give quite a lot of people some action over the next few days

[Gord]

Maybe not in the most perfect position here in the West Midlands...but still in a very strong position. Going to be interesting to see which towns and cities across the country get hit. I was staying with in-laws near Daventry in July 2006 and that could not have been any more perfect. Really lucked out that time.  Anyone know what happened here in the Black Country during that thundery outbreak?

Edited July 21, 2013 by Gord

[AWD]

That's one big clump of rain/storms shown on the UKMO radar model on their website for early hours of Tuesday;

[storm1080]

That MCS over Caen doesn't look very isolated...sure I'll see that when I go up Portsdwon Hill over pompey later...shame it's so light till so late...

Latest ECM/GFS runs have this SW'ly humid flow for most, if not all of next week..

[I Cumbria Marra I]

will these storms be more severe than the newcastle 28th 2012 storms?

[Gord]

That's one big clump of rain/storms shown on the UKMO radar model on their website for early hours of Tuesday;

image.jpg

Like the look of that. Sadly, been stung by the UKMO radar forecast many times before.

 

When things develop on the actual radar...or move...or develop then move...then we'll truly know. Hoping if anything fires tonight it doesn't disturb me until after I'm up for work as could really do with a good nights sleep. After that...I'll take whatever comes at whatever time!

Edited July 21, 2013 by Gord

[storm1080]

Off to the middle of nowhere 45 mins east of La Rochelle at parents, Thurs, big open skies, looking forward to this week now with the storms coming fingers crossed, and what weather my parents get down there. 37c today for them (they spent all day in doors). Saw my last lightshow there in a huge isolated MCS

Looking at Raintoday radar...think Pompeys in the firing line...shame it's still so light....but beggars can;t be choosers

[Convective]

Sorry, hope the mods don't mind.. thought I would post my forecast here too just because of its relevance in the start of this stormy period.

 

Forecast for this evening through till tomorrow morning... An update will be issued at 9am tomorrow (22/07/2013) morning.

 

[AWD]

EC Det develops something interesting over southern England during the early hours of Tuesday;

[Southern Storm]

anyone got a Jersey webcam link? looking good there at the moment

[tinybill]

monster  thunder storms over the  french coast  acc  to my rain alarm

[J10]

That's one big clump of rain/storms shown on the UKMO radar model on their website for early hours of Tuesday;

image.jpg

 

Interestingly that does not tie in with the NAE precip forecast, perhaps their higher res models are saying something different.

[Cornishdave]

Fingers crossed for some action later on!

[J10]

Sorry, hope the mods don't mind.. thought I would post my forecast here too just because of its relevance in the start of this stormy period.

 

Forecast for this evening through till tomorrow morning... An update will be issued at 9am tomorrow (22/07/2013) morning.

 

 

No probs at all, always good to have good technical knowledge on this thread.

[Robbie Garrett]

That MCS is exploding, what might happen and generally happens is it will be about the size of Southern England by the time it gets here, probably lasting till 4-5am, that's best guess at the moment. TROUGH centered just south of the coast at midnight.

 

EDIT:  Currently Engulfing  the Channel Islands. EGJJ 211920Z 14018KT 4000 -TSRA BKN035CB 21/18 Q1016 TEMPO 3000 TSRA

Edited July 21, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[paul m]

anyone got a Jersey webcam link? looking good there at the moment

Got a few for GUERNSEY http://www.nest.gg/webcams/webcam.html

[paul m]

Jersey if its working :http://www.camvista.com/webdir/Jersey-Web-Cams/1000556.html

[Southern Storm]

Nice one! things look a lot more active the the east of Guernsey but that link will come in useful later I hope! 

 

many thanks 

TM24

Edited July 21, 2013 by thunderman24

[Eye to the sky]

Well what a difference 300 miles can make to the weather!.Woke up in Newquay to sunny skies with a temperature of 27 degrees with high humidity.Skies started to turn thundery around 2pm with cells popping up as we left.Arrive back in Derby at 8pm to grey skies and a temp of just 17 degrees,and it doesn't feel thundery or humid at all!!.

[Swave Snow]

That MCS is exploding, what might happen and generally happens is it will be about the size of Southern England by the time it gets here, probably lasting till 4-5am, that's best guess at the moment. TROUGH centered just south of the coast at midnight.

 

EDIT:  Currently Engulfing  the Channel Islands. EGJJ 211920Z 14018KT 4000 -TSRA BKN035CB 21/18 Q1016 TEMPO 3000 TSRA

On the points you make you are probably correct, problem is if it doesn't clear by the time the sun comes out, we will not get the high temps as everybody has suggested, then our chances diminish badly for imported storms or home grown, last minute things like this can always cause dampers for heat lovers and storm lovers alike, and in winter snow lovers

Edited July 21, 2013 by Swave Snow

[Bobby]

Some interesting skies to the South, altocumulus cas moving in with some higher stuff too.

 

 

That's one big clump of rain/storms shown on the UKMO radar model on their website for early hours of Tuesday;

image.jpg

 

Come to daddy!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've just seen the Countryfle forecast and there was no mention of storms for tonight - they're forecasting them tomorrow night!  I presume we think they're incorrect?

[Robbie Garrett]

On the points you make you are probably correct, problem is if it doesn't clear by the time the sun comes out, we will not get the high temps as everybody has suggested, then our chances diminish badly for imported storms or home grown, last minute things like this can always cause dampers for heat lovers and storm lovers alike, and in winter snow lovers

 

 

The problem with this morning was that the North Sea fog drifted very far in-land and that's because there was next to no wind, temperatures where not high and dew-points where pretty high.   When I arrived at Biggin it was 16/17*C and the Dewpoint was 15-16*C giving a 600ft cloudbase and mist.  The storm will clear the air allowing for nice blue skies tomorrow with very similar conditions to 2011 that day we had 2,500 CAPE and -12 LI over the UK.  34-35*C possible. 

 

Thunderstorm will clear northwards and probably die as it tracks over the UK.  That's what generally happens these days.    I am not so sure it's going to actually hit Central/Southern England/London & SE -  MetOffice saying the wind pushes it towards BENELUX and it disintergrates over the channel, but this is looking good so far. 

 

We will soon find out, it's heading out to the Channel now, with storms building behind it.  Classic MCS behavior.