Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[phil nw.]

Here's a new thread then to continue discussion on the overnight outputs.

 

As ever please keep on topic and respectful in your postings.Let's avoid point scoring we know that takes things off topic and creates bad feeling.

Remember there other threads for general opinions and moaning or ramping.

 

Talk around what the models actually show in here please.

 

OK then carry on below.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We all know who will complain first when it's cloudy and raining outside when the breakdown does come.. The breakdown lovers lmfao!!!!!

Back to on topic.. Well.. Breakdown seems to be pushed back and back and back,.

[Tim Bland]

According to MH the ECM 32 dayer is not good for early August ...

"@MattHugo81: Less said about overnight update of EC32 the better. Develops low pressure late July and keeps it until mid-August."

[cheese]

According to MH the ECM 32 dayer is not good for early August ...

"@MattHugo81: Less said about overnight update of EC32 the better. Develops low pressure late July and keeps it until mid-August."

Because it's performed so well so far..

[phil nw.]

Not a good start-the first 2 posts -where's the model discussion?

Come on please think before you post some comments such as above are more suited to other threads.

[shaky]

To me the ecm 00z is better than last nights 12z especially in fi as pressure builds!!wouldnt pay too much attention to the 32 dayer forecast it has been wrong on quite a few occassions!!not to say it will be wrong this time but you never know!!

[draztik]

I cannot find one single model, including navgem, gem and bom which shows the Azores high reinserting itself over the UK in FI. They all either have low pressure near us, or on top of the UK. So at this moment, the models all suggest a fresher begining to August and likely beyond (if you see their recent overnight outputs)

[Buzzit]

Can we get a breakdown thread please so we have a chance to discuss any breakdown free from persecution while safe in the knowledge that there will definitely be a breakdown, and it will also give us a chance to discuss what the definition of a breakdown is and whether it means a pattern change or not.

I get confused with musical breakdowns you see.

[chionomaniac]

According to MH the ECM 32 dayer is not good for early August ..."@MattHugo81: Less said about overnight update of EC32 the better. Develops low pressure late July and keeps it until mid-August."

I would say that this is likely. Slight seasonal wavelength changes and probable increase in tropical activity will lead to a weak trough to develop which will slowly deepen. Keep an eye on the MJO forecasts over the next week which will indicate how likely this is to occur. The Azores high will displace north - not NW over us.

[Scorcher]

Can we get a breakdown thread please so we have a chance to discuss any breakdown free from persecution while safe in the knowledge that there will definitely be a breakdown, and it will also give us a chance to discuss what the definition of a breakdown is and whether it means a pattern change or not.I get confused with musical breakdowns you see.

 

Agreed, I'm also interested to find out what people deem the word 'breakdown' to mean as it's very vague to me.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Ecm 00z run this morning, the heat building even more from later in the weekend and through the first half of next week, a surge of very hot and very humid continental air bursting northwards next week, you can see this on the T850 thickness charts as the hot plume blossoms and pushes further and further north. It looks like temperature records will be smashed and an increase in thundery activity during the course of next week with a major thundery breakdown later next week but continuing hot & humid with temperatures in the mid to high 80's and for a while next week, low to mid 90's or possibly high 90's. I'm loving this heatwave, seven years wait has been worth it and there is even better to come, the peak of our hot spell will be reached by about the middle of next week and it looks like being explosive later in the week across most of the uk, there is no end in sight to our super heatwave on the ecm 00z, long may it last. 

Edited July 19, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

Agreed, I'm also interested to find out what people deem the word 'breakdown' to mean as it's very vague to me.

I would say a breakdown is pretty much the process of a pattern change, for example a heatwave back to Atlantic westerlies. It appears on the UKMO and GFS but not on the ECM this morning but there would be a breakdown at day 11 on the ECM.

[shedhead]

Oh dear Chio, that is gonna go down like a leads balloon in here, but as you say it does appear correct. August, or at least the first half of it looks like being significantly different to July based on the long range ECM and the consistent signal being shown in FI on GFS.  The last rites will be performed on what has been a stunning spell of summer weather at some stage during the middle part of next week, whether we then see another heatwave later in Aug remains to be seen, but all talk of a quick return to fine, settled weather after the breakdown looks a tad optimistic...at least for now.

Edited July 19, 2013 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

The ECM monthly ensemble temperature mean for Birmingham continues to show temperatures staying at average or just above till at least August 19th with the exception of the 10th

 

 

Rainfall is mixed with its peak on the 29th before it drops down again

 

[phil nw.]

Last night's fax shows the developing shallow trough to the south west by Tuesday.

 

 

so an increasing risk of some thundery showers affecting some western areas by mid-week.

It look's like much of the week will remain hot or very warm with sunshine for many though but that shallow trough does look like bringing somewhat cooler air with those thundery showers across the country by next weekend.

This is for Warks.

 

this trend in the ens has been pretty consistent for some days pointing towards something closer to normal heat wise.

 

We can see from the WZ London graph those 2m temps just falling away at the end there.

 

Closer to the low 20'sC rather than around 30C we have been seeing.

Edited July 19, 2013 by phil nw.

[Polar Maritime]

There will be a change at some point towards the end of next week, where some big storms are possible.  As to what extent is unknown at this point, as the models are struggling past Tuesday, Which is also a good indicator of some sort of change in the pattern. A very warm/ hot weekend, and start to the new working week coming up. By which time things should be much clearer.

 

I think our mate with the glasses should be out with them chart's Karl 

Edited July 19, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Evening thunder]

The ECM monthly ensemble temperature mean for Birmingham continues to show temperatures staying at average or just above till at least August 19th with the exception of the 10th

 

 

Rainfall is mixed with its peak on the 29th before it drops down again

 

 

Indeed and average wouldn't be that bad, particularly when coupled with this July, meaning we'd have had a very good July and average August (no 'poor' in there)

Doesn't look quite so bad as certain posts or the tweet from Mat Hugo make it sound assuming this is the same output, not sure if he does tweet positive posts or ones about settled/warmer weather, just only ever see ones like the last one posted in here.

 

What would happen with that though is an increase in rainfall and frontal/low pressure activity (actually a good thing IMO as nature and gardens etc could certainly do with rain after this July, and to be expected in the UK)

Still mean temps near 18C isn't bad on the temperature front (not like the constant below average they were showing for spring and the start of summer).

 

On the models this morning there still seems to be uncertainty about when a breakdown to notably cooler conditions will come, there may be a breakdown of the dryness (probably from showers/thunderstorms) in the south as early as Tuesday or Wednesday (or Thursday-Friday on the ECM) but it is not that clear when there will be a breakdown of the warmth, it could be mid-late next week, where as the ECM doesn't have that underway until day 10 (Monday the week after next).

[Troubleatmill]

00z Gfs ensembles show the operational being one of the lowest with regard to pressure next weekend onward, not an outlier but certainly showing one of the more low pressure dominated runs, definately a downward trend but there is still a lot to change, im looking now toward canada/ greenland and the dp over there around 120 as this is what will decide our future for 1st week in August, some show it heading southeast to link with the shollow low already over us and deepening and some have it staying north which will help our cause to keep more settled or less unsettled :

 

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2013 by tempestas

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Both ECM and GFS showing possibly 2 plumes! Midweek we see a potential stormfest with a shallow low moving up from France, that drifts back Westwards, the another reload to the end of the week with another plume surging up!  

Temps will still be a humid 25-27 degrees even at that point. Some people might say that is a breakdown, not in my eyes though if you want some violent storms etc.

[Richie V]

Loving those charts frosty. Perfect growing weather fo my spruce, pines and firs!

Almost looks a double whammy next week with two plumes from continental europe (as mentioned above)

Edited July 19, 2013 by Richie V

[chionomaniac]

Oh dear Chio, that is gonna go down like a leads balloon in here, but as you say it does appear correct. August, or at least the first half of it looks like being significantly different to July based on the long range ECM and the consistent signal being shown in FI on GFS.  The last rites will be performed on what has been a stunning spell of summer weather at some stage during the middle part of next week, whether we then see another heatwave later in Aug remains to be seen, but all talk of a quick return to fine, settled weather after the breakdown looks a tad optimistic...at least for now.

We still have the rest of July to get through on the same vein and whe won't know how correct any forecast for August will be until after the event. The signs are still tentative presently - but they are there.

[shedhead]

We still have the rest of July to get through on the same vein and whe won't know how correct any forecast for August will be until after the event. The signs are still tentative presently - but they are there.

Not sure we'll need to wait until after it, we'll know if and when we are in it, but I take your point.  Also agree there is much to enjoy ahead of any breakdown next week, so I am off to do precisely that....just in case!

[draztik]

This matt Hugo character, has just shown that the 3 longer range ensemble models now have low pressure tracking near, on top of the UK for late July / early August.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/358145512848908288/photo/1

[CLH the red dragon]

This matt Hugo character, has just shown that the 3 longer range ensemble models now have low pressure tracking near, on top of the UK for late July / early August.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/358145512848908288/photo/1

 

Indeed. Though it makes it sound like a long period. It is in fact only 29th July - 3rd August.

 

Does anyone know the verification stats of the long range ensembles? What did they say about our current hot spell, for example?

[William of Walworth]

Chio and shed seem strongly convinced that early August will become much more unsettled. I'm a realist and I can see some of the signals lying behind this thinking, but I'm sure both those posters would also agree that notes of caution should still be necessary about anything beyond next week? I have my doubts that any full on pattern change is nailed on yet. As said above it partly depends what happens over Greenland etc. do we really know which way things are going to go up there yet, over the next few weeks?

We still have the rest of July to get through on the same vein and whe won't know how correct any forecast for August will be until after the event. The signs are still tentative presently - but they are there.

OK you've answered my point already really! Thanks.