Hurricane Erick

[summer blizzard]

As i thought, we now have Tropical Depression 5. Track looks similar to prior systems and models don't think it will be more than a strong TS.

 

[Coast]

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/145152.shtml?5-daynl

 

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 041455
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.

- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 16 19 30 34 34 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 64 56 47 44 44 46 NA
TROPICAL STORM 34 28 33 25 22 20 NA
HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 X NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)

$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, we have 05E. Intensity is 30kts. There is a large amount of convection around the LLC currently, and it probably won't be long before 05E is a tropical storm. However, shear is moderate to high at present, and is only expected to lower to moderate levels over the coming days, so as SB says, a moderate to strong tropical storm looks the likely peak for 05E, unless shear eases. A typical west-northwest track is expected, which means that 05E will get fairly close to the coast, bringing heavy rainfall.

[Somerset Squall]

05E has become Tropical Storm Erick, with winds now at 40kts. Erick has a large area of deep convection displaced west of the LLCC by moderate shear. However, the convection is quite intense. Continued shear of at least moderate levels are still expected to slow strengthening, but not completely prevent it. The latest track brings Erick closer to the Mexico coastline, increasing the heavy rainfall threat here. Shear is expected to ease in a few days time, but sea temps will be cooler along track by then. NHC expect a peak of 55kts.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has lessened considerably over Erick this afternoon. The storm has strengthened to 50kts. Erick has some very deep convection over the LLCC presently, and there are even hints of an eye forming. As shear has reduced more than forecast, Erick is now expected to become a hurricane. In fact, there is a chance of rapid intensification over the next 24hrs.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Erick has continued to strengthen this evening, and winds are now at 60kts. Erick should continue to strengthen over the next day or two before encountering stronger shear and cooler sea temps on the west-northwest track. The track has shifted slightly north towards the coast of Mexico, and any more northward adjustment may mean that Erick interacts with land, which would stop strengthening.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

 

The storm system Erick has strengthened to a hurricane off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Erick became a hurricane Saturday and is centered about 90 miles south of Manzanillo and about 510 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving northwest at 9 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.

 

Forecasters predict a northwest to west-northwest track over the next few days but say the storm should remain offshore. Rain accumulations from 3 to 5 inches are expected. Forecasters warn of flash floods

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/07/06/erick-becomes-hurricane-off-mexican-coast/2494681/

[Somerset Squall]

Erick peaked as a 70kt hurricane. Erick has now weakened to tropical storm intensity with sustained winds of 55kts. The storm has reached cooler waters and is entering an area of dry air. As a result, convection has markedly decreased over Erick's centre and peripheries, leaving the circulation exposed. As Erick journeys further northwest, it will encounter even cooler water so further weakening is expected.

[Coast]

Hurricane Erick Weakens While Approaching To Northwestern Mexico

 

http://inserbia.info/news/2013/07/hurricane-eric-approaching-northwestern-mexico/

[Somerset Squall]

Erick continues to suffer at the hand of cooling sea temps and dry air. Some modest convection continue to flare near the LLCC of the 45kt tropical storm. Erick is moving very close to the southern tip of Baja California, and is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds here. Erick should weaken further today, and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 24hrs time and to a remnant low soon thereafter.

[Somerset Squall]

Erick has become a remnant low west of Baja California. Regeneration is not expected as the low continues northwestwards over cold water.

[mezzacyclone]

Erick has become a remnant low west of Baja California. Regeneration is not expected as the low continues northwestwards over cold water.

Yup, curtains for Erick as last advisory issued, succumbed to the CA current & NPG over 20°

 thereabouts SST`s.