Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[johnholmes]

Their purpose is to inform the public of what they expect the weather to be. Its blatently obvious the temps are going to be mid twenties widely Friday so why do they blatently lie. If I was presenting forecast for fri i would have had 23 in SW NOT 17 and 25 in london and cardiff not 22 and 19. Irritating as fxxx

why not calm down?It is only the weather and quite probably, as has been written on here by Ian F, UK Met take little notice much of the time of GFS. Thus if other models including their own are showing differing temperature values then they will quote the one they believe in.Come Friday evening and we will all know which model was correct.

[J10]

Technically not strictly model related, so if a mod thinks thinks should be deleted, Ok by me.

 

But the met office website has temps of 22-23c for most of Southern Britain on Sunday, with 24-25c in a few spots, this is much higher than they were forecasting this time this week for last weekend, and a few spots got a bit more than 25c even given the lower forecast.

[SizzlingHeat]

If its 17 degrees on friday in abundant sunshine and 12c uppers/528 thickness then fine I will apologise, but it wont be. So much for professionals with stupidly high wages and super computers that cant even forecast the correct temperature 3 days out. A 10 year old could do better!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If its 17 degrees on friday in abundant sunshine and 12c uppers/528 thickness then fine I will apologise, but it wont be. So much for professionals with stupidly high wages and super computers that cant even forecast the correct temperature 3 days out. A 10 year old could do better!

I know, madness! Its only just gone below 17c in RAF Coningsby right now and its raining and wet! They are just covering their backs I swear, simply because of their errors over the last few years.

[Captain Shortwave]

If its 17 degrees on friday in abundant sunshine and 12c uppers/528 thickness then fine I will apologise, but it wont be. So much for professionals with stupidly high wages and super computers that cant even forecast the correct temperature 3 days out. A 10 year old could do better!

Looked for your location for Friday. 20 degrees in a South Westerly wind, sounds reasonable for your location given an onshore breeze.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2640101

Saying that a countrywide high of 22 seems rather low unless they expect the warmer ups to be slower to arrive.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Evening thunder]

Why is it the gfs is showing temps of 24-25c in south west Friday but BBC forecasr just had a 17 for the south west. I know BBC are often conservative but COME ON !!! Thats 8 degree difference. Why do they always show such pathetic temps when the charts are showing blatently warmer than this!

 

The problem is that the national maps often automatically use the temp for Plymouth, and the symbol looks as if it's over my area when it can be very different from Plymouth here. Plymouth is of course coastal so the model used to generate the maps is probably forecasting a sea breeze on Friday (as is GFS), so it may not be far off the mark for Plymouth right next to the sea, but go a few miles inland and it will probably be unrepresentative. 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Costa Del Fal]

For those of us wanting cooler weather we need the MJO to amplify in phases 4-6.

 

I thought Phase 4 was good for settled warm weather in July? Where can I find maps of the composites? 

[Tamara]

I don't understand why folk are consistently seeking out the date of the breakdown in FI, rather than talking about what's already in front of them... I.E. a nationwide hot spell lasting what is likely to be a respectable amount of time?

I think that the few people who are commenting on further possibilities (which has included humble me ) are doing so from a pragmatic pov of how the pattern might evolve from here. On the basis that this is the MOD thread

 

However believe me, and speaking for sure for myself, and completely aside from cyber computer land, I am looking forward to enjoying the sunshine and summer weather as much as most others and thus on that basis of course it makes no sense to seek out the end of the enjoyment before it has even started. Happy Days to come

[Alex]

Time for a technical look at what is in front of us.

It's no surprise that we are heading into a warm, sunny spell. AAM recently went positive.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif

Coupled with a move of the MJO into phase 8 around a week ago.

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JunePhase8500mb.gif

The positive AAM suggests a strong amplified phase 8 pattern with heights over the UK.

There has been suggestions of a scandi trough developing with heights retrogressing westwards.

This is a possibilty, because GWO has entered a low amplified stage and the models are potentially looking to build a block further north.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

However I think there is every reason to be optimistic yet! The atmosphere is setting itself up for the summer in the Northern Hemisphere and the block could get stuck over us with a trough developing to the far NE and far west. The MJO is expected to weaken in the coming days and therefore any large change is likely to be difficult however I do favour as progged by the ECM - a weak phase 5 as we head into July which could push heights out into the Atlantic, however next week seems a tad too soon!

Add me on twitter - @alexbweather

Edited July 2, 2013 by Alex

[Alex]

I thought Phase 4 was good for settled warm weather in July? Where can I find maps of the composites?

I thought Phase 4 was good for settled warm weather in July? Where can I find maps of the composites?

This should help Blizzards!

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[joggs]

Looking excellent for cloudless, brilliant blue skies. I'm thrilled ! As for FI, that will definitely alter somewhat, and that high over us looks like it has acres of free space to move into over Central and Eastern Europe. Just seems illogical in my eyes for that big block just to be shoved back out into the atlantic like what ECM is showing. Things will change definitely.

I would be Careful though EES91 because a fair bit of the time over the last few years when we haute had high pressure in our vacinity its retrogressed out west!!!.This been more prevelent since 2007 pattern change?.

[Captain Shortwave]

I would be Careful though EES91 because a fair bit of the time over the last few years when we haute had high pressure in our vacinity its retrogressed out west!!!.This been more prevelent since 2007 pattern change?.

It's too quick in my opinion, yet again a large scandi trough is shown in the latter stages which the ECM has done several times over the past few weeks only for it to be removed in future runs.

GFS 18z is an improvement on the 12z with the initial push of the Azores high making it further north east, as a consequence southern areas have 14C uppers instead of the 12C isotherm scraping us.

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Geordiesnow]

GFS at least back away from its trend of temporary of sending the high to the West so for Sunday this run is warmer than the 12Z run and its more in line with the Euro models

 

One thing I'm noticing with each GFS run is that they are building a slightly stronger high than the Euro models, and this has the advantage of deflecting that weather front away at least during daylight hours for most of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Saturday so hopefully the GFS is onto something in that case so most people can enjoy some sunshine and warm weather on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Expect some different temperature differences as the models play around where the centre of the high is located but all the models are singing on the same hymn sheet that a large blocking high could play a role in the weather for quite some time. Will it retrogress towards Greenland as per the ECM run, that is far too early to call at this stage but its a plausible scenario. 

[joggs]

It's too quick in my opinion, yet again a large scandi trough is shown in the latter stages which the ECM has done several times over the past few weeks only for it to be removed in future runs.

GFS 18z is an improvement on the 12z with the initial push of the Azores high making it further north east, as a consequence southern areas have 14C uppers instead of the 12C isotherm scraping us.

Tbh i agree it may be to quick CS given the mjo but can not be dismissed as EES91 was edging at.

[summer blizzard]

I thought Phase 4 was good for settled warm weather in July? Where can I find maps of the composites? 

 

Your right, i meant 5-6-7.

[Milhouse]

GFS 18z settled and very warm throughout. Parts of the midlands would see over 10 days of 25c + if it were to occur.

[Panayiotis]

Remarkable similarities between the 18Z and 12Z today at 384hrs, spot the difference!

 

This N/NW interlude may happen but nothing in the models show anything substantial with only the east and north being affected. It does look like though the high pressure will reassert itself back over the UK with this shown by many of the GFS runs in the last 2days with the CFS showing this too:

>>>>>>

Edited July 2, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Geordiesnow]

One thing for certain is that whether you are living inland or on the coast, its going to feel quite humid and perhaps a little unbearable for those who are most vulnable from heat like fair skinned people. Personally don't mind the heat and humidity to some extent but it would not surprise me if some members complain(and its in their right) about the humidity in particular.

 

Hopefully the models continue the trend of keeping the high over us and not have too much of an easterly drift kicking in but it will be interesting too see if the models will hint at what the ECM is showing which is retrogression towards Greenland. One to watch. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Good news!

 

The ECM 12Z ensembles show the OP was right at the bottom end of the ensembles when it comes to the middle of next week. The others and the control for London all go for a continuation of the warmth although as expected even the control tones the heat down a touch but still all above 20c easily beyond midweek.

 

Plus virtually no rainfall after Thursday until at least the 17th July - Nearly ALL members saying that!!!!!

Edited July 3, 2013 by Blizzards

[Gray-Wolf]

I do not care how 'stung' I am from Pete's unkind 'put down' nor J.H.'s 'old money View you cannot pump so much energy into the jet and expect 'null' result?

 

QBO inches on and everyone hangs on it's every shuffle but pump mega energy into the jet up north and???? so why not? Again we see a steady progression in snow loss across the north and temps are popping old records ( and some not that old????) and yet 'naught'. Nil points, like it really does not matter in the day to day run of our weather?

 

Do you really need someone 'more experienced' to give you permission to think 'outside the box' and include She ite load of forcing not yet Incorporated in the models?

 

Can you not just look outside the window and 'see' the strangeness?

 

Can you not see the 'switch ' in jet position writ large acrossv the U.S.??? ( and burning them up as we speak???) due to the half crank of the JET's cycle? What else dbrings that to us folk? what else? , a gentle shuffle of the QBO ? what would a  'record low in ice and open sea surface to milk the suns energy' do to impact the Jet's amplitude and frequency???

 

Carry on , dismiss me , bar me , but it will not change the day to day impacts of our changing climate.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Skyraker]

I hope all that Ice melts this year... nasty stuff.

 

Also, don't you think some of your statements in there are slightly arrogant considering some of the company you're in ?

 

I do not care how 'stung' I am from Pete's unkind 'put down' nor J.H.'s 'old money View you cannot pump so much energy into the jet and expect 'null' result?

 

QBO inches on and everyone hangs on it's every shuffle but pump mega energy into the jet up north and???? so why not? Again we see a steady progression in snow loss across the north and temps are popping old records ( and some not that old????) and yet 'naught'. Nil points, like it really does not matter in the day to day run of our weather?

 

Do you really need someone 'more experienced' to give you permission to think 'outside the box' and include She ite load of forcing not yet Incorporated in the models?

 

Can you not just look outside the window and 'see' the strangeness?

 

Can you not see the 'switch ' in jet position writ large acrossv the U.S.??? ( and burning them up as we speak???) due to the half crank of the JET's cycle? What else dbrings that to us folk? what else? , a gentle shuffle of the QBO ? what would a  'record low in ice and open sea surface to milk the suns energy' do to impact the Jet's amplitude and frequency???

 

Carry on , dismiss me , bar me , but it will not change the day to day impacts of our changing climate.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Skyraker

[cheese]

Not liking the look of GFS once again being very progressive with the arrival of the front into northern areas of England - it actually looks fairly substantial on this run. Hopefully it won't be there come the 06z as GFS is having a hard time handling the trajectory, and it would be really, really bad to have rain ant 1030mb! Plus GFS is showing 27C at the same time for some of the rain-affected areas so I'm inclinded to believe it is being too progressive. Plus, few members actually support this outcome.

 

Maximum temperatures look a little better until Monday when 25C is confined to a narrow strip in the far S of England with values of 21 - 23 elsewhere, but these temperature projection charts aren't the most reliable - the high pressure is still strong, very strong even with 1035mb widespread, and I think GFS is really undercooking the values and doesn't take into account that the longer the high persists, the hotter it is likely to get, similar to 1976 albeit not as prolonged or hot. Definitely think 30C will go, almost certain actually.

 

Looking pretty good so far, only a few minor points to nitpick, the general theme is the same. Into the unreliable timeframe the retrogression of the high pressure really isn't pronounced at all, low pressure stays well at bay and uppers remain above 10C for the bulk of the British Isles.

Edited July 3, 2013 by cheese

[joggs]

I do not care how 'stung' I am from Pete's unkind 'put down' nor J.H.'s 'old money View you cannot pump so much energy into the jet and expect 'null' result?QBO inches on and everyone hangs on it's every shuffle but pump mega energy into the jet up north and???? so why not? Again we see a steady progression in snow loss across the north and temps are popping old records ( and some not that old????) and yet 'naught'. Nil points, like it really does not matter in the day to day run of our weather?Do you really need someone 'more experienced' to give you permission to think 'outside the box' and include She ite load of forcing not yet Incorporated in the models?Can you not just look outside the window and 'see' the strangeness?Can you not see the 'switch ' in jet position writ large acrossv the U.S.??? ( and burning them up as we speak???) due to the half crank of the JET's cycle? What else dbrings that to us folk? what else? , a gentle shuffle of the QBO ? what would a 'record low in ice and open sea surface to milk the suns energy' do to impact the Jet's amplitude and frequency???Carry on , dismiss me , bar me , but it will not change the day to day impacts of our changing climate.

Maybe solar? Lol,get it off your chest Gw. Edited July 3, 2013 by joggs

[mushymanrob]

Their purpose is to inform the public of what they expect the weather to be. Its blatently obvious the temps are going to be mid twenties widely Friday so why do they blatently lie. If I was presenting forecast for fri i would have had 23 in SW NOT 17 and 25 in london and cardiff not 22 and 19. Irritating as fxxx

 

the actual temps may well end up somewhere between the two... carole kirkwood this morning is predicting 'temps as high as 30c by sunday/monday'

 

stunning!

[TEITS]

Been a few days since I posted but my word what a splendid set of model runs so far this morning.

 

The coming weather is what I would call perfect. The temps will be widely in the mid 20s and possibly as high as 28/29C and will continue into next week. I say perfect because in my opinion 25C is the perfect temp as its plenty warm enough without feeling uncomfortable. The lack of rainfall in the output is troubling though because its been so dry in recent months in my location.

 

Looking further ahead and the settled theme appears to continue but the exact placement of the HP has been differing in recent days and at the moment we could see anything from a cooler N,ly flow or even a warmer SE,ly. The favourite is probably turning slightly cooler with temps eventually dropping to the low 20s but I wouldn't rule out the hotter SE,ly.