Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Barry12]

30C and sunny, normal July weather? ahahhahahhahhahhahahahahhahahhahahahahahhahahahhahaha    

 

Looks like a very nice week coming up with warm and sunny weather for all

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Barry95

[Milhouse]

But even on the ECM mean at day 10 the 10c isotherm remains over northern Scotland suggesting a continuation of the very warm conditions even if the centre of the high has slipped away.

[Gray-Wolf]

If you look to the mega highs that inner continent get then the 'drying of the land' makes it easier for the high to maintain. So the longer it lives the more likely it is to live longer?( and become ever hotter???). if you look back to 03' and 06' I think you can see this effect in the major blocks we had then?

[Geordiesnow]

18Z run is showing why I was a bit concerned with the UKMO run, front in Western areas on Saturday but the high does build in again however there will be a weather front trapped in it which could mean the chart on paper may look fine and sunny but the reality is, for some areas it will be cloudier and therefore not as warm. 

 

Just something to bear in mind really. 

[Tony27]

dear me any further eastward push of that front and it will end up cloudy on saturday, its annoying how a low sat in the atlantic can throw so much cloud ahead of it ruining things, lets just hope the 18z has gone off on one, but nothing is ever nailed on in this country, even i was feeling very optimistic earlier now im a bit worried, people might think it is a just a blip then it will be fine, until the next blip comes along

Edited July 1, 2013 by Tony27

[Evening thunder]

Really?.. 18z looks just fine to me. Some people will just never be satisfied.

 

Hottest temps yet shown on the high res charts on the 18z - 30C in places

Edited July 1, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Tony27]

i said saturday that it could be cloudy, and i also said any further eastwards push of that front, meaning the north and west and maybe central areas could be cloudy, you have posted a chart which is 7 days away,  a very nice chart but its FI, at least friday and sunday are 99% likely to be hot and sunny, but as i said its just one run, so hopefully it's not a start of a trend to push that front closer to us, a shame the heat don't look like lasting until the 11th when its my birthday

[Geordiesnow]

dear me any further eastward push of that front and it will end up cloudy on saturday, its annoying how a low sat in the atlantic can throw so much cloud ahead of it ruining things, lets just hope the 18z has gone off on one, but nothing is ever nailed on in this country, even i was feeling very optimistic earlier now im a bit worried, people might think it is a just a blip then it will be fine, until the next blip comes along

 

The front should just fizzle out and the cloud should just slowly melt away also but it does show how one small complication can change the type of weather we could have - in this case, that front entering the high could be the difference between a sunny day and a cloudier one but in the most part, it should still be dry and warm. Although Scotland and Northern Ireland could be the exception to this rule on Saturday unless the orientation of the high changes and deflects the front away. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Are we on the cusp of the first long hot spell since 2006?

 

It's entering the reliable timeframe now, with good agreement on the high becoming established by Friday

 

t96

GFS .............. . ....... .......  ........................... ECM ....................... ........................ UKMO

 

BOM

 

Then through to 7 days out, things just look better.

 

GFS............ ... ......  .......................................ECM....................      ........................BOM

 

Looking further afield, the 8 to 10 day 500hPa GPH anomalies suggested continued strong ridging around the British Isles

 

We've got what we need in place, strong ridging, high pressure,  increasingly warm uppers and a warm continent.

A hint of ridging towards Greenland in FI, but no agreement on it yet, so nothing to worry about.

 

All in all, the models don't get much better than this for summery weather

[nitro_deluxe]

First person to say "oooh it'll be too hot?" wins a prize? one way ticket to a more favoured destination lol...

 

Joking aside - at flamin' last 

[Scorcher]

Wow the GFS 00Z is an absolute cracker in terms of the longevity of the high- no signs of retrogression later on on this run with the centre of the high stubbornly sitting right over the UK virtually up to the end of the run! The sort of run we have been waiting for for years!

Edited July 2, 2013 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Let's start with the ukmo 00z, it looks very anticyclonic by the end of the week and start of next week, set fair with temperatures in the 80's and long sunny periods.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z is also set fair with a very warm / hot spell locking in with high pressure becoming very slow moving.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is gorgeous, becoming hot and anticyclonic across all parts of the uk and lasting all next week, it could not look better as far as i'm concerned with high pressure locked over the uk.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[rory o gorman]

very epic runs this morning .Not a bad complaint nit picking thickness and 850s to see what kind of heat can be created.

[Frosty.]

The Navgem 00z also turns into a peach of a run, only the far northwest looks briefly a bit more unsettled on saturday but then it's smooth sailing towards a nationwide heatwave.

[MR EXTREMES]

The Navgem 00z also turns into a peach of a run, only the far northwest looks briefly a bit more unsettled on saturday but then it's smooth sailing towards a nationwide heatwave.

indeed mostly home grown heat which is excellent news, winds light and could well be a stubbon pattern to shift noticed ukmo has this weeks low heights a fair bit more south than the gfs but over all same pattern predicted by all main models. excellent.

[Nick F]

00z ECM continues the general trend of a high pressure block developing over western Europe next week, strong heights/thicknesses rising from up from Iberia and N Africa creating an omega block, the high thicknesses getting in across the UK which suggest temps perhaps reaching 30C (86F) or more. No quick breakdown from the Atlantic likely this time.

 

Seems rather a novelty seeing such a block develop in summer over the UK after recent years changeable Atlantic low-driven summers.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Nick F

[stainesbloke]

Some pretty fantastic charts showing this morning, indications of an extended warm, very dry and settled spell are getting stronger. Looks like lasting a good week at least.

[Frosty.]

I saved the BEST until last, the Gfs 00z becomes very warm and anticyclonic until beyond mid month, some days are hotter than others and there are regional variations but you would struggle to find a better set of charts than these over such a long period, it's an EPIC run.

[Nick F]

I saved the BEST until last, the Gfs 00z becomes very warm and anticyclonic until beyond mid month, some days are hotter than others and there are regional variations but you would struggle to find a better set of charts than these over such a long period, it's an EPIC run.

 

The usual hot spots (i.e, the SE and E Anglia) may not necessarily be the hottest places next week, depending on the orientation of the surface high which will affect the flow. If the flow's from the east off the cool North Sea, as appears on GFS towards the SE, southeastern areas will be cooler (though still pleasantly warm) with northern and western areas seeing the highest temperatures, though sea breezes developing during the day may mean all coastal areas are cooler than inland.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

Really?.. 18z looks just fine to me. Some people will just never be satisfied.

 

Hottest temps yet shown on the high res charts on the 18z - 30C in places

 

I could understand those on the east Anglia coast not been satisfied west  of them temperatures are in the high 20's but places like Great Yarmouth struggle to get out of the teens thanks to the easterly wind

[Dusk1983]

Can anyone more knowledgeable make a synoptic comparison with July 2006?

 

Looking at the chart for back then, that was a genuine Euro high much further East, which I imagine created a hot tropical Southerly but other than the placement of the anticyclonic centre, the latest ECM and GFZ 00z don't look that far off to my novice eyes...

Edited July 2, 2013 by Dusk1983

[Tamara]

There are differences to 2006 and we have come from a much cooler background than 2006 - despite the fairly cold start to the Spring that year. The anticyclonic type pattern began right at the start of June, and as you say, it featured migrating cells just to the east of the UK with a lot of hot southerly winds, plus a slight weakness of pressure over the Azores, and this pattern recycled several times all the way up to August.

 

As we know, this fine spell is starting some 5 weeks later and looks to feature an extension of the Azores High to the UK, with our Island and into NW Europe being the eastward cell of this High pressure belt. The fine spell is yet to begin, so we will have to wait and see how it develops further and there is a long way to go before we can compare it with years like 2006, 1990, 1983 and 1976 etc.

 

All that said, the models suggest a spell that is sustained enough to give us a good week or so at least of gloriously fine summer weather. Its hard to criticise for sure, but being one who prefers pleasant warmth than than searing heat - I will be grateful for that gentle easterly breeze where I live.

 

The EPS members are emphatic in their alignment for High pressure mostly straight over the UK out to day 7 from here. There is less sign of the retrogression tendency than yesterday, which suggests that although, eventually, this could prove to be the correct signal, the thought the models may try to be too progressive with this signal could prove to be true

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Evening thunder]

i said saturday that it could be cloudy, and i also said any further eastwards push of that front, meaning the north and west and maybe central areas could be cloudy, you have posted a chart which is 7 days away,  a very nice chart but its FI, at least friday and sunday are 99% likely to be hot and sunny, but as i said its just one run, so hopefully it's not a start of a trend to push that front closer to us, a shame the heat don't look like lasting until the 11th when its my birthday

 

Yes I did post one 7 days away, but that didn't stop some worrying or speculating, or saying they don't like runs, because of a breakdown out at day 10 and afterwards. So I'd thought it would be reasonable picking something 7 days away to show the outlook is still good. Saturday still looks fine and warm away from the NW areas like Scotland and NI to me, maybe some fair weather cumulus but still sunny intervals.

Anyway the models look even better this morning for the longevity of this high, most models and ensembles (and the ensembles yesterday) say it is quite likely to still be very warm by the 11th

still a decent ECM mean on the 12th July:

 

I could understand those on the east Anglia coast not been satisfied west  of them temperatures are in the high 20's but places like Great Yarmouth struggle to get out of the teens thanks to the easterly wind

 

Yes maybe, but you will never get a settled spell in this country that doesn't leave some coasts cooler.