Methane , Noctilucents and Comet Ison

[Gray-Wolf]

Though we know little about these clouds it may be that increased levels of methane have helped with recent years of good noctilucent seasons.

 

Apparently the methane rises to the top of the strat where it oxidises with H2O as a by product of this breakdown.

 

We are set to pass through the debris stream of comet Ison on jan 12th next year and take up to a week to exit it. the dustthis deposits in the upper atmosphere will form condensation nucliei for any H2O it encounters.

 

Chances are that the recent upspurt in CH4 from the loss of permafrost will place more moisture into the strat so enabling a number of years of pretty stunning displays from the Noctilucent season and a very early start (Jan) to next years season!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder if comet Ison could affect the weather?

 

I remember some research looking at the filling ofthe black sea and paleo records of a 500% increase in precipitation around the time of the 'filling' of the Sea. One suggestion was that a 'Sun grazer' impacted the Sun and spawned a CME that heated the atmosphere to the point that we suffered this massive increase in rainfall totals?

 

Ison is an unknown quantity in this respect. This is it's first trip into the inner solar system and it is predicted to come close to the sun so might it impact instead of 'graze'?

 

The other 'impact' are these predicted Noctilucents. Do they impact the strat temperature? I know we have been debating 'clouds' in the trop as to whether they act as a positve reinforcement of warming or a negative impact on our warming. At present the opinion seems to be well in the 'reinforces' court. Seeing as the strat is already cooling as a responce to warming of the trop so will this trend reverse if we blanket the high lats with a layer of cloud?

 

Will the load of dust itself actually allow 'warming' of the strat?

 

Maybe there is more to Ison than just a pretty Christmas star?

Edited June 24, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

But methane levels haven't really changed much for several years.


 

[BornFromTheVoid]

But methane levels haven't really changed much for several years.

 

 

But that graph was made several years ago, so how can you tell?

[knocker]

Up to Dec. 2012.

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Thank you for the graphs chaps. i think 4 knows full well that after a 'pause' in methane increases recent years have seen a worrying 'uptick' in levels esp. worrying are the releases now being measured across the north during spring thaw through to autumn re-freeze. NASA has an ongoing mission across Alaska to measure such releases there. i wonder what temps in the 90's over the past week has done to those measures?

 

We then could also do with some idea of how long it takes such output to ascend to the top of the stratosphere? Are we already seeing the recent uptick in CH4 releases in the Noctilucents recent increase in both numbers and range? Are we yet to see such a response?

 

The dust from Comet Ison will hit us from two directions , one from the cloud trailing the Comet itself and another from the dust driven outwards by the soalr wind so we will find ourselves in the 'unique position of having the dust impact the whole globe at once.

 

We also know that the dust will take many months to settle through the atmosphere and years for it all to settle out to the surface. I merely wonder what such an increase in cosmic dust may have on our planet?

Edited June 24, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Jax]

Thank you for the graphs chaps. i think 4 knows full well that after a 'pause' in methane increases recent years have seen a worrying 'uptick' in levels esp. worrying are the releases now being measured across the north during spring thaw through to autumn re-freeze. NASA has an ongoing mission across Alaska to measure such releases there. i wonder what temps in the 90's over the past week has done to those measures?

 

We then could also do with some idea of how long it takes such output to ascend to the top of the stratosphere? Are we already seeing the recent uptick in CH4 releases in the Noctilucents recent increase in both numbers and range? Are we yet to see such a response?

 

The dust from Comet Ison will hit us from two directions , one from the cloud trailing the Comet itself and another from the dust driven outwards by the soalr wind so we will find ourselves in the 'unique position of having the dust impact the whole globe at once.

 

We also know that the dust will take many months to settle through the atmosphere and years for it all to settle out to the surface. I merely wonder what such an increase in cosmic dust may have on our planet?

It took many many comets and asteroids to make us, I suspect one will not break us. (unless on a direct course and it is huge, then we may be buggered)

Edited June 24, 2013 by Jax

[BornFromTheVoid]

I have my doubts as to whether a small comet could cause a massive CME, though I could well be wrong.

[Gray-Wolf]

Let us not discount , Jax, the possibility that this comet may also be a force for good? Could it warm the strat (reversing the AGW cooling we measure) by the inclusion of dust particle that hold onto , and re-emit, solar input?

 

I'd also agre,e BFTV, that a 3 mile Comet is not going to spark a CME of significance and also figure that the comet would be on the lower limb of , or behind,  the sun were it to be overcome by it's gravity? It would be a good point of study with the full solar disc now able to be seen at any one time? We have seen CME's looking like an impact has caused them so it would give the science more info on such events?

[Gray-Wolf]

So , anyhoos, I'm not sold on how Nasa can know so little about the comet on one hand and then suddenly know enough to reassure us that only 'dust, microns across, will be it's cargo?

 

But , were it to be dust then what could this do to cloud formation in the upper trop as it makes it's way to ground level? I'd only be guessing but it might be a thing that helps slow AGW's impacts?

 

And then if it is a 'yearly' encounter it could go a long way to slowing the worse that AGW has to offer?

 

As you know I have my concerns about upcoming 'positive feedbacks' from the warming we are commited to and this might be a way of not having to deal with such impacts (just yet?).

 

It is only a thinking excercise guys, we none of us can know until we know what we are dealing with but I thought it might be of interest esp. with all the talk of geoengineering that we hear?

[Crepuscular Ray]

I suspect that NASA's comment was referring to the possible encounter between Earth and the remnants of the comet's tail in mid January next year. The likelihood is that the tail will just be tiny particles of dust, which will burn up in the upper atmosphere as meteors rather than get as far as the Earth's surface and perhaps some ice, which might contribute to noctilucent clouds, although that mechanism isn't understood and the effects are as yet unknown. The plasma will have been stripped away by the solar wind long before then. 

 

Have any studies been made of the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of the annual meteor showers - Perseids, Leonids, Taurids, etc., especially just after the parent comet has passed? They might give a clue

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi C.R.!

 

I thought the 'regular' showers were 'old tails' and very rarely that we pass through the middle section of the stream ( with rates of well over 100 meteors and hr?) where as this is the tail a matter of weeks after the comet has passed on it's way to the Sun?

 

It will be a very interesting thing to witness ? There was us flying a mission into haley's tail when we could have just waited for the ISS to pass through one to collect samples???

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/around-the-world-in-4-days-nasa-tracks-chelyabinsk-meteor-plume/#.Uj3hlNKGySp

 

If the debris from this impact is 'measurable in impact' ( we all wondered at the cold Arctic this summer???) then is it silly to wonder about the impacts from the dust Ison could leave in our way?

 

For me the jury is still out on whether our fascination with Comets as 'augers of doom' is just due to attaching them to regular nasty events or whether we have a 'cause and effect' race memory of occasional Comets leading to climate impacts?

[UV-RAY]

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/around-the-world-in-4-days-nasa-tracks-chelyabinsk-meteor-plume/#.Uj3hlNKGySp

 

If the debris from this impact is 'measurable in impact' ( we all wondered at the cold Arctic this summer???) then is it silly to wonder about the impacts from the dust Ison could leave in our way?

 

For me the jury is still out on whether our fascination with Comets as 'augers of doom' is just due to attaching them to regular nasty events or whether we have a 'cause and effect' race memory of occasional Comets leading to climate impacts?

Lol, so is this a get out of jail card just in case we see some reversal in fortunes GW, not saying we will Gray but?????

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not in the least concerned about 'theories' either way but the reality of food security should we find appreciable cooling, similar to a big eruption, should we encounter a large dust cloud from ISON.

 

If we saw a V.E.I. 6 I'm sure we'd all be very concerned about the short/medium term impacts and nobody would be quibbling about 'our' climate impacts for , as we all know, Natural impacts can have very large and instant impacts for us all.

 

We hear the talk of a 'weak sun' so couple that with global 'dimming' on a large scale and we hit problems that would trivialise discussions such as this by the very scale of the impact on global society.

[UV-RAY]

I'm not in the least concerned about 'theories' either way but the reality of food security should we find appreciable cooling, similar to a big eruption, should we encounter a large dust cloud from ISON.

 

If we saw a V.E.I. 6 I'm sure we'd all be very concerned about the short/medium term impacts and nobody would be quibbling about 'our' climate impacts for , as we all know, Natural impacts can have very large and instant impacts for us all.

 

We hear the talk of a 'weak sun' so couple that with global 'dimming' on a large scale and we hit problems that would trivialise discussions such as this by the very scale of the impact on global society.

It was meant to be a light hearted quip GW, I'm sorry if you felt it was otherwise. For the record yes I totally agree with all of that.

Edited September 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Methuselah]

I just hope that folks make sure their triffids are kept under control...

[Gray-Wolf]

T.B.H. I'd just like a good showing from the comet but some of the NASA info had the sceptic in me wanting to check things for myself. we just do not have the info yet so that makes things into merely 'mind games'. I didn't know we'd tracked the fallout from the Meteorite over russia but that just makes me think more about 'impacts' from the tail encounter that would not have been 'measurable' in the past making 'linking' any impacts a matter of faith , or belief in comet as portents of dire circumstances?

 

With the reports , from NASAS, of possible noctilucent seeding I could not but think about global dimming and how such could impact our planet.

 

This lack of knowledge is the bug bear, I mean will we pass through the tail each year until it is so dissipated as to show no impact? That being so if we do see unwelcome changes could they be a thing repeating for years? ( remember the dust will enter before spring gets going so any 'dimming' would impact us going into summer......if it happened as we entered winter then impacts might be so potentially messy?).

[fishthekiller500]

T.B.H. I'd just like a good showing from the comet but some of the NASA info had the sceptic in me wanting to check things for myself. we just do not have the info yet so that makes things into merely 'mind games'. I didn't know we'd tracked the fallout from the Meteorite over russia but that just makes me think more about 'impacts' from the tail encounter that would not have been 'measurable' in the past making 'linking' any impacts a matter of faith , or belief in comet as portents of dire circumstances?

 

With the reports , from NASAS, of possible noctilucent seeding I could not but think about global dimming and how such could impact our planet.

 

This lack of knowledge is the bug bear, I mean will we pass through the tail each year until it is so dissipated as to show no impact? That being so if we do see unwelcome changes could they be a thing repeating for years? ( remember the dust will enter before spring gets going so any 'dimming' would impact us going into summer......if it happened as we entered winter then impacts might be so potentially messy?).

 

Forgive me, but I am having trouble understanding this post in that I wonder if you are claiming that the dimming effects of the comet are likely to have a much more significant impact in winter than in Summer? If I have completely read your post wrong then I apologize. 

Edited September 21, 2013 by fishthekiller500

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry but yes, if we have contact in Jan then the dust settles out over our late winter/spring and may impact temps and weather patterns over those seasons impacting crop planting/animals being turned out into pasture.

 

To my untrained mind if it happens  in Aug/sept then impacts would be limited for the N.Hemisphere as temps would already be on the way down and animals are being put in housing for winter/crops are harvested.

[Methuselah]

IMO, there's more chance of a bunch of loons committing mass-suicide (in some hare-brained attempt to reach the mothership) than there is of any appreciable effects on global climate...

[Gray-Wolf]

IMO, there's more chance of a bunch of loons committing mass-suicide (in some hare-brained attempt to reach the mothership) than there is of any appreciable effects on global climate...

 

Well there's a " We'll see" opportunity!

 

how much do you know about our first time visitor Pete ( you already appear genned up on the Loons)?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/23nov13/ison_encke_nov19_22.gif?PHPSESSID=jalodbq8hhc8at9ado0iil3t31

 

Watching the stereoA movie has made me realise just why it will take a week to pass through the debris field and ,seeing encke's tail being blown back, just how the whole planet gets impacted at the same time.

 

I'm sure there will be folk now looking at the area of space Ison blasted through, prior to our arrival on the scene on Jan 12th, to see just what kind of debris feild we are going to encounter? I wonder if the material from the recent 'brightening' event will have been pushed back toward us by Jan 12th?

[knocker]

Deleted, wrong thread.

Edited November 25, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Watching Ison make it's approach to the sun I'm getting a clearer idea of just how it's debris are blown back out by the solar wind. As it does it's final approach it is still moving in line with the orbital path of the Earth so I'm wondering just how long it will take the dust/rubble it's losing right now to arrive at our orbital path? Is it possible that our Jan 12th encounter will include some of what the comet is throwing off right now ( as the proximity to the sun blasts it good!)?

 

The dust already seeded in our orbit cannot amount to much can it? It was still only visible with telescopes at that point so wasn't shedding that much material ( was it?).

 

Some how I feel another 'let down' on the way with those promised noctilucents making a 'no show' due to lack of dust for condensation nuclei? Seems to be plenty of Methane currently working its way into the strat this Autumn )to break down into water vapour need for the clouds) if we did run through a good vein of debris though......

 

EDIT: just read through this,

If Ison makes it around the Sun and escapes a fiery death, it should produce two meteor showers - one from when it passed Earth on its way to the Sun and another on the way back. "It's unprecedented that we would get two meteor showers at the same time on different sides of the Earth, so that's something to look out for. If Ison doesn't make it, we should still definitely get one."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/525612/20131127/comet-ison-century-history-solar-system-particles.htm?

 

 

So now we DO expect meteors????

 

 

Were NASA going to tell us closer to the time that we had another exciting event to look forward to???  

Edited November 27, 2013 by Gray-Wolf