Thunderstorm potential and activity for Wednesday 19th into Thursday 20th June 2013

[Coast]

NMM pretty much like GFS with anything that's coming looking to be later this afternoon and in that area from the West Mids through the home counties and a bit of East Anglia:

 

 

 

 

 

So some agreement between those two sources, but is it enough? I'm scared to make any judgement after the last two days! :ph34r:

 

Here are three Soundings from places that look to be in the area of interest later, they are generally not too bad:

 

  

 

 

What do we reckon then? :unsure: 

 

 

 

 

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

We reckon we should initiate a forced house swap with a bunch of French and Germans, so they can suffer our summers

[Supacell]

Dull with steady rain here but feels warm despite this. Prospects for later are best so far this week for around here.

[Coast]

Significant aviation weather chart for today:

 

[Tim Bland]

So 30 pages later and days of meti forecasts for storms and still naff all!! I expect a bit of hype and hope casting on here but bbc / meto (ESP SE) Have been on full ramp mode for the last few days and not a single strike recorded! Bit embarrassing !

[Cableguy]

Nice to see that the stuff that is now coming out of Northern France which is largely not producing Sferics is on the perfect trajectory.....typical

Edited June 20, 2013 by Cableguy

[Coast]

bbc / meto (ESP SE) Have been on full ramp mode for the last few days and not a single strike recorded! Bit embarrassing !

 

I caught Kaddy's forecast last night and she was discussing 'enthusiastically' the MCS and how much rain could fall in the SE (+ storms) so we are not alone in a bit of ramping. Shows how difficult this is to call.

[ZONE 51]

Coast, I was nervous making my storm map this morning leaving a gap across central southern areas.. although I did put lowest risk as it is possible for some isolated cells to affect there. the greatest risk from the SE and a wide line up into the Midlands zones I think today, today is different but still not that confident but much more so than the last few days when I expected storms. but there we go it's the weather and it's a most interesting science!

Edited June 20, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Coast, I was nervous making my storm map this morning leaving a gap across central southern areas.. although I did put lowest risk as it is possible for some isolated cell to affect there. the greatest risk from the SE and a wide line up into the Midlands zones I think today, today is different but still not that confident but much more so than the last few days when I expected storms. but there we go it's the weather and it's a most interesting science!

 

Well current NW radar does actually show the stuff in France starting to get into the Channel and if you wind it forward an hour, it makes landfall!

 

[Mapantz]

I have to make that observation too, quite possibly the worst 3 or 4 days of BBC forecasts i have seen for quite a while.

[Bristawl Si]

 

I have to make that observation too, quite possibly the worst 3 or 4 days of BBC forecasts i have seen for quite a while.

Make it 5 upto yesterday.Saturday and Sunday's forecasts for my area were pants - at v short timescales.

[VillagePlank]

Another day, another go at trying to get a convective forecast right!

 

 

Pretty much this says scattered to very scattered thunderstorms (K/TT/LI/CAPE) It's certainly going to be a hit and miss affair for homegrown storms, if they occur at all since surface heating looks key, here, and the forecast is for not much sunshine.

 

Areas of interest seem quite obvious from the CAPE/LI charts,

 

 

Essentially a track between SE England and Chester with just about everyone on that line in for a (small) chance, today. I think that the SE is more likely because, in the absence of great lapse rates, and strong surface heating, mechanical lift may be the order of the day,

 

 

Which further limits interest to an area NE of a line from the SE, up the M1, M6 until you reach the A5.

 

All of this, of course, excludes the possibility of French imports, which have just done their duty-free and are making the journey across the Dover Staits right now. The back edge of this lump has sferics, and it's not beyond reason that daytime heating could pep it up, so the front end develops - although this is less likely. UK landfall, south coast, approximately 10am. Almost certainly too early for a good pep-up, unfortunately.

 

Happy hunting,

 

[Coast]

Pretty much this says scattered to very scattered thunderstorms (K/TT/LI/CAPE) It's certainly going to be a hit and miss affair for homegrown storms, if they occur at all since surface heating looks key, here, and the forecast is for not much sunshine.

 

 

Essentially a track between SE England and Chester with just about everyone on that line in for a (small) chance, today. I think that the SE is more likely because, in the absence of great lapse rates, and strong surface heating, mechanical lift may be the order of the day,

 

It doesn't look too bad this morning:

 

 

[VillagePlank]

I know Coast, I pressed 'Post' and then the sun came out in Rochester! GFS has cloud all day ...

Edited June 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of rain is heading for the south currently there could be some torrential downpours from this with some thunderstorm's possible as well locally as much as 40mm could fall in just a few hours but up-to 20mm seems most likely

 

 

And the extended radar at 09:45

 

[Coast]

I know Coast, I pressed 'Post' and then the sun came out in Rochester! GFS has cloud all day ...

 

If it's going to happen (what am I saying??  ) then London might do alright out of the potential.

Plenty of rain is heading for the south currently there could be some torrential downpours from this with some thunderstorm's possible as well locally as much as 40mm could fall in just a few hours but up-to 20mm seems most likely

 

 

And the extended radar at 09:45

 

 

 

Already very dark in Sussex

[VillagePlank]

Already very dark in Sussex

 

Last time I went to Sussex it felt dark, creepy, and I had a compelling feeling to keep looking over my shoulder. I don't think was an excess of ozone, though ...

[Mapantz]

Rain rates of 0.01mm/hr from the drizzle here. It's been more of a thundery plum!

[Coast]

It's been more of a thundery plum!

 

Interesting concept....

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Luxembourg area - some live-stream motorway shots. Looking soggy, storms in close proximity.

http://wowza01.newmedia.lu/cita/cita_a1/playlist.m3u8

[Evening thunder]

I reckon parts of the Netherlands are feeling a bit cheesed off too:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/ (last 7 days lightning strikes)

 

No doubt they will get a big MCS or something tonight to make up for it though

[gottolovethisweather]

Drinks all round if anybody does get anything now.

 

 

It will be a bonus for sure, after the disappointment of getting done by those foreign cells once again (this is NOT terrorist speak BTW  )  

[A.J]

whilst reading all the reports of continental storms & looking at all the web cam footage is fascinating & compulsive viewing, please be aware that there is a thread dedicated to European Convective Discussion, and can be found here ----------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/68734-european-convective-weather-discussion/  so these posts are probably best suited to that thread to help this thread not going off on tangents.....

 

 

 

[Coast]

Looks like the rain coming across from France has the most interesting portion hitting Kent in the next couple of hours.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Coast

[Tamara]

Following the big storms in Northern Germany last night, my German friend is keeping a very close eye on this website for her district area in the south west of the country which is the very small indicated region of Speyer right on the eastern most edge of the map  http://www.unwetterzentrale.de/uwz/rlpindex.html

 

At the moment strong storms are just to the west of her. (Speyer is a beautiful town btw)

 

She is aware of the Level 2 ESTOFEX warning for SW Germany as well

Edited June 20, 2013 by Tamara Road