east pacific Tropical Storm Alvin

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical depression has formed bang on the East Pacific season's start date, around 500 nautical miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. 01E has a fairly healthy amount of convection over the LLC, but there is little or no banding at present. 01E is over very warm water, and should remain in a low shear environment for the next 4 days. Therefore, 01E is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves west-northwestward. As 01E reaches the western periphery of the ridge to the north steering it, it should begin to gain lattitude, and this will bring 01E over cooler water and stronger shear which should start to weaken the system beyond 96hrs. 01E is of no threat to land.

 

Edited May 15, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

A FISH seemingly. 

[Somerset Squall]

01E continues to strengthen, and has become Tropical Storm Alvin, with sustained winds now estimated to be 35kts. Alvin is developing banding features and deep convection over the LLC. Shear continues to be low, and waters very warm, so Alvin could strengthen fairly quickly over the next few days.

[summer blizzard]

1 in 3 chance of rapid intensification!

 

Look at the core on this babe!

 

 

 

Welcome back cane season!!!!!!  This is why i love the weather!!!!  Such beauty, such strength!

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Alvin strengthens in eastern Pacific

 

The hurricane season opened Wednesday with a flourish, and more specifically, with the debut of its first named storm, Tropical Storm Alvin.

 

Tropical Depression 1-E was upgraded and named a tropical storm Wednesday, which happens to be the first day of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, and both seasons end November 30.

 

As of Wednesday night, Alvin was centered about 700 miles (1,125 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect at that time due to the storm, which was moving west-northwest at 12 mph. But things may change soon.

 

"Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," the Miami-based hurricane center said. "Alvin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/15/world/americas/tropical-weather/

[Coast]

Tropical Storm ALVIN: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Alvin strengthened to 45kts this morning, but has since stopped strengthening. The intensity forecast is not as clear cut as originally thought, and in fact NHC have completely backed off Alvin reaching anywhere near hurricane strength, though they say the intensity forecast is very uncertain. Alvin's LLC is located on the western edge of the convection now, indicative of an unexpected rise in shear. Shear is expected to be moderate (about 20kts) over the next few days which could cap further intensification. Models did not pick this up very well, especially SHIPS which was hinting at rapid intensification. NHC only forecast a peak of 50kts now before shear rises to destructive levels in around 72 hours time.

[Somerset Squall]

Alvin is a prime example of how little skill even the experts have at predicting tropical cyclone intensity. Alvin's winds are now down at 40kts, and this estimate could be generous. Alvin may not even be a tropical cyclone anymore, as it has become involved with the monsoon trough. Alvin itself is actually very difficult to tell apart from disorganised convection throughout the trough. Unless Alvin seperates from the trough, and fast, NHC will discontinue advisories. And just to think, yesterday it looked like Alvin would become a hurricane!

 

This image sums it up. Alvin, or what's left of it, can barely be picked out from the trough:

 

[summer blizzard]

Just too moist an environment perhaps.

[Coast]

 

Tropical storm Alvin struggles in eastern Pacific

 

Forecasters say the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season is struggling off the coast of Mexico.

 

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Tropical Storm Alvin formed Wednesday. As of 5 p.m. Hawaii time, it had maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph and was moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Forecasters say Alvin's maximum sustained winds have decreased and little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Alvin could degenerate into a low pressure system at any time. The next advisory is released at 11 p.m. Hawaii time.The eastern and north Pacific season began Wednesday and runs through Nov. 30.

 

The National Hurricane Center says there is typically an average of 15 named storms each season, with four of those considered major hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength with top sustained winds of 111 mph

 

 

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/22262011/1st-tropical-depression-of-pacific-season-forms

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Alvin is no longer a tropical cyclone. It doesn't have a closed circulation anymore, and is fully embedded within the ITCZ. Regeneration is not expected.