Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Cheshire Freeze]

Amazing how close these things get without affecting us much, if at all. Conditions from Thursday over a large portion of France look decent enough for outbreaks of strong thunderstorm activity along CZs inland, where temperatures in the upper 20s, dew points in the upper teens, possibly low 20s, and reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates yield MLCAPE values generally on the order of between 1000-1500j/kg, perhaps closer to 2000j/kg in parts. Winds aloft light Thursday/Friday given stangnant and weak ridge, so shear non-existent- though jet remnant associated with the upper low ejecting southeast this week may increase winds over the region during Saturday/Sunday period, so shear profile perhaps improving. Nevertheless, setup should favour large hail and a strong wind gust threat.

Whereas over here it's like a broken record where storms are concerned. I'd quite happily take a bit of 35C heat now if it guaranteed a storm!

[Coast]

Indeed Paris and Brest look like the places to be this week:

 

 

[Supacell]

Although the weather is very nice out there, until we lose this annoying NE'ly flow that we seem to have been stuck with for months we won't tap into any of that really juicy air over the near continent and will have to settle for thundery showers from showery LP set ups as opposed to the proper continental storms I vaguely remember from years back.

 

Bearing in mind its June, we are under high pressure and the sun is shining it is not good that we are still struggling to get temperatures above the high teens. And if I am honest the wind out there is cold, despite the warm sunshine.

 

Of interest - if we don't lose the NE'ly flow by the time we get to next winter we could be in for a very cold winter.

 

Crossings over the channel aren't that expensive - and petrol costs divided amongst a number of storm enthusiasts wouldn't be so drastic either - just saying 

Edited June 4, 2013 by Supacell

[Keraunic]

"Crossings over the channel aren't that expensive - and petrol costs divided amongst a number of storm enthusiasts wouldn't be so drastic either - just saying"

I'd certainly be up for that sometime. Anyone else?

[Coast]

I'd certainly be up for that sometime. Anyone else?

 

If I didn't have work and weekend commitments currently, I think it's a possibility K!

[Supacell]

"Crossings over the channel aren't that expensive - and petrol costs divided amongst a number of storm enthusiasts wouldn't be so drastic either - just saying"I'd certainly be up for that sometime. Anyone else?

 

It is becoming ever harder to get decent storms in this country, and the US storm chasing trip is a bit out of my price range so the way I see it this would be my best option to see a good storm. I too have work and weekend commitments but they can be worked around (holidays etc)

[Harry]

I am considering taking a trip to Dymchurch this weekend in the event something manages to creep ashore, however unlikely it seems at this stage!! We need to High to recede northwards slightly allowing the trough the make a closer approach! Is only Tuesday though

 

Sunday night's activity as charted at present by GFS comes VERY close indeed!!

[Coast]

Sunday night's activity as charted at present by GFS comes VERY close indeed!!

 

Big lump of 'cold and wet' to cross though H !

[Supacell]

I am considering taking a trip to Dymchurch this weekend in the event something manages to creep ashore, however unlikely it seems at this stage!! We need to High to recede northwards slightly allowing the trough the make a closer approach! Is only Tuesday though

 

Sunday night's activity as charted at present by GFS comes VERY close indeed!!

 

Absolutely, the very slightest of changes and it hits our shores. If it does come anywhere on the mainland I will be considering chasing, even if it means driving to Kent.

 

Coast, we would need the air-mass over France to be over us and then we could get homegrown storms just inland from the south coast much like what will happen in N.France I would have thought as well as elevated storms moving over from France.

 

Storms over France that try to trundle across the Channel in less favorable conditions will inevitably not make it.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Supacell

[weatherobsuk]

Continental chasing does have its appeal especially monetary wise, the only downside I could foresee is the ridiculous number of toll-booths along the French Motorways aswell as the fact that such a chase would need to be nailed down to the wire in practically the last 12 hours. For many such a short time-frame to arrange travel, cost issues, overnight plans would be difficult but it's certainly not impossible.

[Karl83]

Continental chasing does have its appeal especially monetary wise, the only downside I could foresee is the ridiculous number of toll-booths along the French Motorways aswell as the fact that such a chase would need to be nailed down to the wire in practically the last 12 hours. For many such a short time-frame to arrange travel, cost issues, overnight plans would be difficult but it's certainly not impossible.

I would be more than willing to do this next year. Not only France but Central Europe too.

[Coast]

Coast, we would need the air-mass over France to be over us and then we could get homegrown storms just inland from the south coast much like what will happen in N.France I would have thought as well as elevated storms moving over from France.

 

Storms over France that try to trundle across the Channel in less favorable conditions will inevitably not make it.

 

OK, I'll be down on Eastbourne seafront on Sunday, you'll know its me as I will have this on the top of my car:

 

[Harry]

Big lump of 'cold and wet' to cross though H !

 

Coast, I'll happily take distant flashes and sparks at this stage, even if it stays off over France...even though I've had a few thunder events this year, it has fallen well short of satisfying my storm appetite...it's incredible to think we are in June and the highest temperature we've managed is 23C with not even if the outside sniff of a plume style setup....depressing to say the least...could 2013 trump the dire years we've seen recently?? With the obscenely cold SSTs, it's starting to look possible especially where imports are concerned.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Coast, I'll happily take distant flashes and sparks at this stage, even if it stays off over France...even though I've had a few thunder events this year, it has fallen well short of satisfying my storm appetite...it's incredible to think we are in June and the highest temperature we've managed is 23C with not even if the outside sniff of a plume style setup....depressing to say the least...could 2013 trump the dire years we've seen recently?? With the obscenely cold SSTs, it's starting to look possible especially where imports are concerned.

Would love to have another Spanish plume as we did a few years back had a fantastic lightning display in Barnstaple for over 2 hours Edited June 4, 2013 by interestingweather

[nitro_deluxe]

Yes a plume...I seem to vaguely remember them!

What are the chances all that juicy, highly charged air just across The Channel swings NE towards the Low Countries, then C Europe then finally E Europe..place your bets now

Kent scraper if we're lucky, or should you just happen to live in Lydd.By the airport.

[nitro_deluxe]

Hope I'm proven wrong...in fact please, write off my general thoughts about convective potential into the week end and beyond.

[Tamara]

Yes a plume...I seem to vaguely remember them!

What are the chances all that juicy, highly charged air just across The Channel swings NE towards the Low Countries, then C Europe then finally E Europe..place your bets now

Kent scraper if we're lucky, or should you just happen to live in Lydd.By the airport.

Exactly where I would hope it doesn't happen, so the central europe plan is fine by me. Good luck to those of you who want them where you live though  Next week will give by the looks of things - but if they focus inland and the colder sea provides a blue sky antidote for the coast to stay bathed in lovely warm sunshine then I am happy with that

Edited June 4, 2013 by Tamara Road

[nitro_deluxe]

Netherlands region..Central then more Eastern parts my bet...nowhere near Kent! Even on a clear night lol.

Surely one lightning show isn't going to spoil things too much Tamara? Or we could just finally wait until August, traditionally our most active month..allegedly, possibly, maybe!

[nitro_deluxe]

Wouldn't at all surprise me weather09 and considering it's also their first proper hotter spell for quite some time? Whole lot shifting E/NE as time progresses.

[ZONE 51]

Absolutely, the very slightest of changes and it hits our shores. If it does come anywhere on the mainland I will be considering chasing, even if it means driving to Kent.

 

Coast, we would need the air-mass over France to be over us and then we could get homegrown storms just inland from the south coast much like what will happen in N.France I would have thought as well as elevated storms moving over from France.

 

Storms over France that try to trundle across the Channel in less favorable conditions will inevitably not make it.

The seas are cooler this year due to a cold winter/spring, how would this affect the thunderstorms? I can imagine that elevated thunderstorms in moist warm plumes float across the channel even if it's colder than normal, but I think some effect from the cold seas would make some difference. Also the Oct/Nov channel thunderstorm season would be affected, depending on land temperatures, so the cold seas really could make things different this Autumn.

 

For those that don't know - 

(cold land /warm seas is what we usually have causing convection to develop over the sea during Autumn) 

Edited June 5, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

Central/W'ern France Saturday anyone? 

 

Yep I'd take that if I wasn't committed to another event back here in Blighty on Saturday. Would be worth a chase if you were on the same bit of land for sure.

[Coast]

Current run GFS simple overview has continued the weekends potetnial activity in France and Germany this morning, but still no Northerly push towards us:

 

 

 

 

Longer term GFS also has it remaining quieter for us:

 

 

 

 

[Raidan]

I'm really thinking about popping over to France for the up coming potential but finding it hard to nail down where to go,don't want to spend the money and not see anything,guess I'll have to keep a eye on things and decide if to go and where at the last minute.

[VillagePlank]

A little bit more excited for the possibility of French imports Sunday night into Monday morning,

 

 

Might just make it across the channel,

 

 

May even get a boost once it hits land ...

 

 

(OK, still clutching at straws )

Edited June 5, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Coast]

A little bit more excited for the possibility of French imports Sunday night into Monday morning,

 

(OK, still clutching at straws )

 

I'd like to see what NMM has later on Friday/early Saturday, that might be the make or break time for people wanting to chase over The Channel or looking to see anything from our shores?