Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[Methuselah]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-44#entry2859180

 

So, you're suggesting it doesn't have a reason? The spaghetti monster did it?

[knocker]

 

Yes because prior to that we had a couple of years of a cool phase before it switched back to a warmer phase. You sometimes see these small fluctuations prior to a longer term switch.

 

So essentially you are rejecting Trenberth and Fasullo because they don't really understand the workings of the PDO. Fascinating.

[Gray-Wolf]

We've had this debate for many years now and , as far as I know, none of us can say with certainty when the current -ve phase began until we are into the next phase ( it is an observed 'natural cycle' that still in it's 'infancy' remember?).

 

As such we are only spouting 'opinions' as to when we saw the phase shift. The Paper noting the AGW impacts upon the PDO since the 1980's would lend credence to the 98' start of the PDO-ve with the return to 'warm indicators' appearing' severe enough to cancel the initial 'call'. I see this 'cancellation as 'premature' and merely a reflection of the way the PDO phases are being impacted by AGW warming ( we all accept the ocean evidence from the past decade don't we?). As such I strongly feel that we will all settle on the 98' date once we see the PDO again flip positive?

 

The problem is that those wishing for the 07' start date may see the impacts of PDO-ve disappear nearly a decade before they expect them too? Put another way the resumption in record warming is far closer than they anticipate and the current phase will be shown to have been severely impacted by AGW warming with it's cycle being less severe than past ones and it's length curtailed?

 

As I've said ( and until someone brings forth evidence that this is no longer the case I shall continue to say it!) this is all just a matter of opinion ( until we again flip positive) with the only reality being that we are ever closer to seeing the phase slip back into positive?

 

Some part of me accepts that not only are the 'misleader's' aware of the upcoming flip back to a resumption in warming but that their adherents also know that the period they have utilised to spread confusion and misunderstanding is limited and will turn back to warming sooner rather than later.

 

Surely, when they ( misleaders and adherents) look at the rapid changes the Arctic has seen ( loss of 75% of ice volume) over this 'cooled' period they hold concerns as to what we will see once we are again in a period of rapid warming? They see the same data that we on this thread work through and so must be equally aware of how much the planet has changed since the mid 80's and how those changes will serve to augment the future warming to come? How, under such conditions, can they hope to maintain their current position on warming and forecasts for future impacts? 

 

Like any period of time that is 'limited' it is easy to lose sight of it's limited nature whilst you are in the middle of such a period but we all know that, as the end approaches, we pay more and more mind to the passing of the 'phase'. This is where I imagine the folk who have utilised, for the forwarding of their own notions, this period of negative natural drivers are at present and that their 'denial' of the passing of the PDO phase is but an indicator of this state of mind?

Edited December 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

And by coincidence the oft quoted 16 year 'cooling' period 'proving it's nothing to do with CO₂ starts around 1998.

[knocker]

As an aside Just reflecting on the activity in here today and note I'm now a troll and a stalker. My CV is almost complete.

Edited December 10, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

As an aside Just reflecting on the activity in here today and note I'm now a troll and a stalker. My CV is almost complete.

The level of projection that goes on with science/anti-science debates can be impressive. I haves climate racist and science bully on my own CV.

[Gray-Wolf]

For those interested this is how K.L.'s "global sea ice 3rd higest amount ever recorded" looks like ???????

 

 

 

 

There seems to be a lot of peaks higher than today's?

Edited December 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

The level of projection that goes on with science/anti-science debates can be impressive. I haves climate racist and science bully on my own CV.

 

I'm still awaiting member of the Nazi extremist-tipper movement for the full set. Shouldn't be long.

[UV-RAY]

I'm still awaiting member of the Nazi extremist-tipper movement for the full set. Shouldn't be long.

Lol, you do have a sense of humour.

[Devonian]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-43#entry2859039

 

 Not long ago you snidely posted allegations that people wanted other people euthanized, now you accuse people of stalking. Two data points on a trend of unpleasantness? Well, I don't know - but definitely enough points for a sceptic to call a trend

Edited December 10, 2013 by Devonian

[Devonian]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-43#entry2859058

 

"Like your comments on climate misleaders? Which is far far more derogatory then anything I've seen posted anywhere else on any forum."  

 

I'm sorry SI but that is tosh. Or did you miss the accusation that those who should frequent this thread want euthanasia and now that we are stalkers - oh and that its ok to call other people half wits.

 

Well, no, you didn't miss those comments, you approved of those comment

 

Apparently calling people future killers, stalkers and half wits you approve of but misleaders and you cry foul. No, I can't understand that either...

Edited December 10, 2013 by Devonian

[Devonian]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-44#entry2859291

 

Weather, simple as that. Add it up, over time, average it and if it changes then we get something meaningful to a climate forum

Edited December 10, 2013 by Devonian

[knocker]

A quick snippet

 

Professor Richard Allan, from the University of Reading's Department of Meteorology, discusses the 'pause' - also described as a slowdown or hiatus - in global warming, and explains what might be causing it.

 

Prof Allan is part of the Climate directorate of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5n8Ci5o71I

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Dev!

 

Have you not noticed that , post 2012's record low Arctic ice levels ( 18% down on the previous record low) the Jet peaks and troughs have adopted 'different' average positions compared to those we saw post 07'? The U.S. has seen the exact opposite of the positioning post 07' with the trough now positioned at the gulf coast instead of it being a 'ridge' pushing up into the Canadian North ( and the 'weather' that such positioning drives).

 

As it is Alaska's Pacific coast has been under the opposite forcing than it had suffered in recent ( post 07'?) years with it just having one of the warmest years on record ( which is why we've not been treated to the chatter from the other thread that has marked the years where Alaska was the only part of the U.S. suffering below average temps?).

 

If we look at the 'average Jet' positioning we have seen this year it is again markedly different to the post 07' years ( Hebden has been Flood Free!) with continental Europe suffering the 'stuck weather' that we had begun to become accustomed to?

 

The flooding events the U.S. has suffered this year may have brought some relief to drought struck areas there but if the pattern persists then they will begin to suffer the same 'glut' of flood events that we had become accustomed to post 07'? They might also expect to see more 'Arctic Plunges' as the errant Jet opens the flood gates to the Arctic cold allowing it to flood south?

 

As we know hot humid Gulf air banging into Cold Arctic plunges is a recipe for disaster across the mid west ( as we saw in the late Tornadic outbreak in Nov?) so any continuation of this pattern may also lead to other 'weather extremes' that will set U.S. tongues a'wagging about links between these 'extreme weather events' and AGW.

 

I feel the public is far better informed these days than they were the last time a Republican Senator tried to 'score points' with his Floridean Igloo ? These days 'extreme weather events', whatever their 'flavour' ,are seen as indicators of the changes our climate system is undergoing?

 

EDIT: Also the more 'extreme events' we encounter the broader is the data base for science to use to prove a causal link between individual weather events and the forces that lie behind them.

 

EDIT:EDIT: S.I. because you once saw 'support' from non regulars regarding the term 'misleader' does not mean it is a magic lamp with which you can summon , and expect support from, the folk who turned up back then? We covered both the term and how it is used. You , it would appear, better fit the tittle of 'an adherent to the Climate Misleaders'? Where you to suddenly find yourself in a position to influence millions of folk then you might well graduate to fully fledged Climate Misleader though?

Edited December 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-44#entry2859415

 

Yes SI I don't (clear?) approve of such labelling, but how do you feel with regards to the comments you approved of? Well, clearly, you approved them.

 

Which comes back to my "Apparently calling people future killers, stalkers and half wits you approve of but misleaders and you cry foul. No, I can't understand that either..." and I still don't understand it...

 

Edited December 10, 2013 by Devonian

[knocker]

GW a bit more on that paper you posted in the arctic thread with Jennifer Francis and Jeff Masters.

 

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/12/09/new-research-linking-ice-loss-snow-loss-and-extreme-weather/#more-16921

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that Knocks! The recent highlighting of the current U.S. 'Arctic Plunge' in the other thread makes this a very timely offering. As the piece notes the 'cold extremes', driven by the rapidly changing Arctic, are just as telling as the heat/drought/flood events.

Edited December 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Yes it's a concept that some refuse to try to understand. A globally warming climate will create regional extremes. Not necessarily all to do with ST.

[knocker]

Gracey Glacier Retreat, Alaska

 

Gracey Creek Glacier is a small glacier in southeast Alaska that terminates near the Canadian border. The glacier’s main terminus is the northern terminus (red arrow), though it has southern terminus as well (purple dot), both drain into Behm Canal via different rivers. Here we examine Landsat images from 1987 to 2013 to identify retreat and tributary separation in the last quarter

 

http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/gracey-glacier-retreat-alaska/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

Thanks for that Knocks! The recent highlighting of the current U.S. 'Arctic Plunge' in the other thread makes this a very timely offering. As the piece notes the 'cold extremes', driven by the rapidly changing Arctic, are just as telling as the heat/drought/flood events.

 

Actually I think this a classic example GW taken in conjunction with this.

 

While Most of U.S. Froze, Parts of Alaska Set Record Highs

 

While the continental U.S. has been shivering from coast-to-coast with temperatures dropping as low as minus-40°F amid one of the most severe early December cold snaps in several years, one state bucked the trend in an historic way. The same contorted jet stream pattern that brought the brutal cold to the lower 48 states pushed a pulse of milder-than-average air into Alaska, where some spots recorded temperatures unheard of for December.

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/while-most-of-u.s.-froze-parts-of-alaska-set-record-highs-16817

 

Edited December 11, 2013 by knocker

[Methuselah]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-45#entry2859852

 

Quite true; but so is the fact that I've still got summer flowers in my garden...And that says bugger-all about climate change either!

[knocker]

Alpine glacier, unchanged for thousands of years, now melting New ice cores suggest Alps have been strongly warming since 1980s

 

SAN FRANCISCO—Less than 20 miles from the site where melting ice exposed the 5,000-year-old body of Ötzi the Iceman, scientists have discovered new and compelling evidence that the Italian Alps are warming at an unprecedented rate.

 

Part of that evidence comes in the form of a single dried-out leaf from a larch tree that grew thousands of years ago.

 

A six-nation team of glaciologists led by The Ohio State University drilled a set of ice cores from atop Mt. Ortles in northern Italy, and described their early findings on Monday, Dec. 9 at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

 

The Alto dell'Ortles glacier, which did not show signs of melting for thousands of years, now appears to be shifting away from a constantly below-freezing state to one where its upper layers are at the melting point throughout the year, said project leader Paolo Gabrielli, research scientist at Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State.

 

"Our first results indicate that the current atmospheric warming at high elevation in the Alps is outside the normal cold range held for millennia," he said. "This is consistent with the rapid, ongoing shrinking of glaciers at high elevation in this area."

 

As they drilled into the glacier in 2011, Gabrielli and his team discovered that the first 100 feet (about 30 meters) of the glacier was composed of "firn"—grainy, compacted snow that had partly melted. Below that, they found nothing but solid and colder ice all the way down to the frozen bedrock.

 

That suggests that snow was accumulating on the mountaintop and was compacted into ice for thousands of years without ever melting—until about 30 years ago, which is when each year's new deposit of snow began melting.

 

The researchers know that the glacier had previously remained unchanged for a very long time—in part because of the preserved larch leaf, which they found wedged into the ice well beyond the firn layer, around 240 feet beneath the surface and encased in solid ice. They identified the leaf as belonging to Larix decidua, or the European larch.

 

Carbon dating determined it to be around 2,600 years old. That means that Ötzi had already been dead for more than two millennia when this particular larch tree grew, though it was not far from his resting place.

"The leaf supports the idea that prehistoric ice is still present at the highest elevations of the region," Gabrielli said.

 

The researchers are just beginning to chemically analyze the ice cores they retrieved. Trace metals and dust sealed in the ice will give more detailed clues to the climatic conditions when the ice was formed.

 

Gabrielli added that the cores are unique in the European Alps, because the winter and summer layers of ice accumulation are easily identifiable, offering the promise of a high-resolution climate record.

 

Of particular interest to the researchers is why temperatures in the Alps are increasing at twice the global rate. As the highest glacier in the eastern Alps (2.4 miles, or 3.9 km, above sea level), Alto dell'Ortles is located in the heart of Europe—one of the most industrialized and populated areas of the world. The team will investigate whether soot emitted by human activities in central and southern Europe plays a role—perhaps by darkening the surface of the glacier, absorbing the sun's heat and melting ice.

 

"Ortles offers us the unique possibility to closely verify if and how regional environmental changes can interact with climatic changes of global significance," Gabrielli said.

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-12/osu-agu_1121113.php

Edited December 11, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I seem to remember K.L. telling us the Alps had been cooling for 20yrs ( even if the linked paper suggested a very small area of the northern Alps was under study? was it one weather station?) even though the regional data, up to 2003, showed this rapid warming trend ( with 03' being a massive warm outlier?) since the 80's?

 

Whilst looking for 'alps data' I did come across data for most 'alpine' climates and all of them were under warming trends (both north and south of the equator)?

 

It does trouble me when I see posts on the other thread that buck the trend in data and yet would appear, if you read them without checking, to suggest the opposite is occurring ? Be it 'Alpine warming' or 'record low temps in Antarctica' or 'record high sea ice level'? Anyone 'skimming' could be totally mislead ( I believe) and that , I find, a tad unfair.

 

When I look back , over recent years, at then number of times certain posters had highlighted Pacific coast Alaskan temps ( ignoring North slope which continued with it's high temps) when subdued SST's had kept them over cool I have to wonder why they have not noted the resumption of the record warming over the past 12 months? Is that also a kind of 'selective' viewing?

[4wd]

The paper you are on about was the New Zealand Alps if I remember correctly.

[knocker]

Is that also a kind of 'selective' viewing?

 

Tut, Tut GW. You will be getting the cane across the back of the legs.