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Glastonbury Wed 26 to Sun 30 June 2013


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After last years "gap year", the Glastonbury festival returns this summer, just as good as ever, but what will the weather have in store. 

 

Of course at this stage, no one is completely sure, but initial indicators are starting to come out, I will be giving regular thoughts on this forum.

 

I know that some of you are there who like to post CFS charts, I would love to see these posted here on a regular basis, both for June on a whole and also more specifically for the days of the festival.

 

post-213-0-95891300-1367615356_thumb.png post-213-0-02963200-1367615358_thumb.png

 

post-213-0-21067000-1367615361_thumb.png post-213-0-92614100-1367615367_thumb.png

 

post-213-0-50557800-1367615369_thumb.png post-213-0-07175700-1367615371_thumb.png

 

Looking at the above charts my first indications are for good festival, with pressure better than average, rainfall expected to be below average and temps above average. This sort of ties in with thoughts elsewhere on the forum that the summer is likely to better at the start than the finish, a theme of (some) recent years.

 

July's charts are included to give backup to June's especially as the festival is close to the end of the month, also anyone who has been following these forecasts over previous years should know by now of the variation in the forecast over time.

 

Just a reminder that posting of any long term chart (CFS) or whatever is actively welcomed, the more info we can have on here the better.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

That looks promising. Big improvement on last June and July. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Something looks seriously wrong with those charts though since when do you get +5C monthly temp anomalies over Shetland and a large area north of Scotland, especially with that corresponding pressure anomaly for July suggesting on average NW winds there?! Posted Image 
I have seen similar odd looking charts posted elsewhere occasionally though.

 

Hopefully it will however be a good festival and better summer period if we're lucky. Junes pressure anomaly does look good there at any rate.

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Thanks JACKONE, can't believe it's coming up already, fingers crossed the weather is kind, not a bad start but know that there will be many changes to come! Sure the efest crowd will be looking forward to your forecasts (although the boards are down currently, not sure how long for, think some posters upset the moderator from what I gather!)

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And here comes an efest member right on cue.... I know how terribly difficult it is this far out bit I'll take something a little more promising than a little more downbeat as a starting point.

 

Looks like the weather is going to break down a bit over the next week or so as well, does this fit in with the "bigger picture" that is currently presenting itself?

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Just want to say hello to JACKONE and big thanks to him for starting this thread up. At quite an early stage this year I think? But I know his Glasto-focussed forecasting work is much appreciated elsewhere by many, and is keenly watched.

No pressure then!

Once again festivaldeb and I will be back -- my 17th, deb's 16th Glastonbury! As we'll be working once again (we've been crewing since 2008) we'll be on site from at latest Sunday 23rd June (possibly from the Saturday?).

So any hints at a nice long window of HP dominated conditions in the South/South West in late June would be our dream ... I do fully appreciate though that there'll be a fair few ups and downs, not to mention synoptic spanners in the works, along the way.

As in every Festival year, it's a roller coaster ride.

Oh yes, and welcome back to everybody else as well!

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: South West Sheffield, approx 210m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South West Sheffield, approx 210m asl

I think this is my 13th or 14th Glastonbury.. hoping for a baking hot one for a change... I always remember them through rose tinted glasses and take all my photos on the sunny days which reinforces my overly postive view of previous festivals but it feels like its been a while since we had a totally dry one so that would be nice!

Looking forward to following this thread, biting my nails and doing sun dances over the next few weeks!

Thanks again for the forecasts Jackone. You cover my two favourite topics - the snow in the Alps and the sunshine (or lack of) at Glastonbury!

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Forecast Number 2 - Issued 10th May

 

This week the blog includes other sources of information, the weekly CFS forecasts for individual months and a look at the daily forecasts issued by CFS.

 

Firstly I'll start by looking at the weekly CFS forecasts for June and July.

 

Pressure

 

Both months show above average pressure over the UK, more especially July, but also bigger positive pressure anomalies to the west of the UK.  Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK, more especially June.

 

post-213-0-42034400-1368210170_thumb.png post-213-0-71597600-1368210175_thumb.png

 

Temps

 

Both months look very similar, temps above average across the UK, between +1 and +2 for the Glastonbury region, with bigger anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

post-213-0-86114100-1368210177_thumb.png post-213-0-72770000-1368210176_thumb.png

 

Rainfall

 

post-213-0-38605600-1368210179_thumb.png post-213-0-89225300-1368211078_thumb.png

 

June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

 

Summary

 

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

 

I have also looked at daily forecasts based on RAW CFS published on these dates

 

DATE   Synoptics Before       Start / During Festival                         Temps   Rainfall        

03/05/2013   Cool and Showery   More Unsettled             n/a Rain likely      

05/05/2013   Unsettled and wet, trough to SW   High Pressure build for Southern UK Yellow, light orange   Showery to start, dry weekend  

06/05/2013   Unsettled and wet, trough to SW   Remaining Unsettled over UK     Yellow, Orange at times Rain all days, heavy most days  

08/05/2013   Pressure building from SW   HP for Southern UK to end festival   Orange or Deep Orange Damp runup, mostly dry festival odd shower 

09/05/2013   HP Pressure to SW of UK   HP to South, West winds over UK   Yellow wed then Orange               Wet in runup, showery across festival  

10/05/2013   HP Pressure to SW of UK NW flow then W flow, rather unsettled   Yellow/Light Orange   Dry runup, rain from NW, some heavy 

 

As you can see the daily forecasts are less favourable than the monthly ones. the next update will be next weekend 

Edited by Jackone
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I've been a 'lurker' on these forums for many years and find the whole place quite addicitive.  I wonl;t confess I know half of what many of you discuss, but as time goes on I learn more.  I've always had a big interest in the weather and as I'm attending Glastonbury this year (my 12th starting in 1979) and having endured a miserable one in 2011, I thought I;d follow this thread! 

 

Correct me if I've got this wrong but it seems as though at the moment it's pretty much in the balance for the Glasto weekend.  I can live with that, anything other than the mud and rain we had in 2011.  I'm especially watching the Saturday as the Stones are playing and I've followed them since the 70's and it will prbably be the last time I see them (no pun intended)  so I'm hoping for a nice warm summers evening Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

I've been a 'lurker' on these forums for many years and find the whole place quite addicitive.  I wonl;t confess I know half of what many of you discuss, but as time goes on I learn more.  I've always had a big interest in the weather and as I'm attending Glastonbury this year (my 12th starting in 1979) and having endured a miserable one in 2011, I thought I;d follow this thread! 

 

Correct me if I've got this wrong but it seems as though at the moment it's pretty much in the balance for the Glasto weekend.  I can live with that, anything other than the mud and rain we had in 2011.  I'm especially watching the Saturday as the Stones are playing and I've followed them since the 70's and it will prbably be the last time I see them (no pun intended)  so I'm hoping for a nice warm summers evening Posted Image

 

You can't possibly do a weather forecast this far out. All that we have so far is variations on the norm for the month, so the UK might be a little bit drier than average and a little bit warmer than average and this can still hold true whatever weather we have at the festival.

 

You'll get some idea from 14 days out, more data from 10 days out, a pretty good idea at 5-7 days out and a proper forecast at 3 days out (although 3 days out from the Sunday is the Thursday when most people are already there). There are several different sources of data and so the more these align, the more confidence there will be and the accuracy of the forecasts will be better further out in time.

 

Of course, this is all pointless really, because we know it will be sunny

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Forecast Number 3 - Issued 17th May

This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)

 

Pressure

 

post-213-0-93250000-1368795258_thumb.png post-213-0-07135300-1368795266_thumb.png

 

June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK.

Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK..

 

Temps

 

Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

 

post-213-0-24466700-1368795268_thumb.png post-213-0-19903600-1368795267_thumb.png

 

Rainfall

 

post-213-0-97306900-1368795269_thumb.png post-213-0-72014000-1368795271_thumb.png

 

Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

 

Summary

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.

Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,
General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomalyto west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.

Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)
Pressure / Synoptics
Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival
11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW
12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds
13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK
14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds
15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend
16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light

Rainfall / Temperatures

Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall
11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival
12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat
13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival
14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells
15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy
16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days

Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.

Overall Summary
At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.

 

Edited by Jackone
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Forecast Number 3 - Issued 17th May

This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)

 

Pressure

 

Posted ImageJune 13 Pressure (17 May).png Posted ImageJuly 13 Pressure (17 May).png

 

June shows higher pressure to the South West of the UK, with pressure over the UK close to average. July maintains the theme of higher than average pressure of top of the UK.

Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK..

 

Temps

 

Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

 

Posted ImageJune 13 Temps (17 May).png Posted ImageJuly 13 Temps (17 May).png

 

Rainfall

 

Posted ImageJune 13 Rainfall (17 May).png Posted ImageJuly 13 Rainfall (17 May).png

 

Very similar to last week's forecasts, June shows below average rainfall area for the South West, but above average for the Midlands, Glastonbury is just in the below average rainfall areas. A similar pattern for July but the below average range is further north, and Glastonbury is on the edge of the 80-100% rainfall areas.

 

Summary

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially July) and be drier than average more especially July. I think we would all be happy with this.

CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.

Unsurprisingly these tend to tie up with the CFS monthly forecast above,

General thoughts for June, High pressure quite often close to the UK, with big positive anomalyto west of the UK on several runs, temps just above normal, with Northern UK consistently a bit warmer relative to average, precipitation below average generally, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

General thoughts for July, Pressure higher than average over the UK on most runs, more especially for Northern UK, temps about 2-3c above normal, , precipitation below average generally, well below average to far SW, but with localised positive anomalies on some runs over Midlands.

Perhaps this indicate generally quite decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.

Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)

Pressure / Synoptics

Date........... Runup to Festival .......................Start / During Festival

11/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................Slightly less unsettled from SW

12/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.................... HP from SW, in a bit, with West/NW winds

13/05/2013 Trough over UK ..........................Trough weakens with general LP over UK

14/05/2013 Low Pressure to NE.....................HP to SW A little unsettled west winds

15/05/2013 Trough slowly weakening out...... W flow then HP from SW towards w'kend

16/05/2013 Low Pressure before festival.......Rather unsettled as HP stays to SW Light

Rainfall / Temperatures

Date.......... Temps.............................. Rainfall

11/05/2013 Light Orange................... Wet in run-up, showery/wet across festival

12/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Wet in runup, heaviest rain to NW, but chance heavy rain Sat

13/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange........ Showery/rain in build up and over festival

14/05/2013 Yellow to Orange..............Mix of rain and drier spells

15/05/2013 Yellow/Orange..................Rain most days, not massively heavy

16/05/2013 Orange............................ Showery,wet on 1/ 2 days

Again these daily forecasts have been less favourable than the monthly ones.

Overall Summary

At this stage, no definite conclusion, but this far out that is no surprise, for those wanting a dry festival, I would certainly hope the monthly forecast are more accurate thean the daily ones.

 

 

 

Hi Jackone,

 

Is there an update due today?

 

Hopefully a nice one?

 

Posted Image

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Forecast Number 4 - Issued 24th May

This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)

 

Pressure

 

post-213-0-63069900-1369418702_thumb.png post-213-0-21286900-1369418699_thumb.png


June has a big +ve anomaly to the south west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK, July in contrast has more of a mixed weather pressure
Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

 

Temps

 

post-213-0-65957400-1369418695_thumb.png post-213-0-67912400-1369418703_thumb.png

 

Both months have temps above average, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for June and +1 and +2 for July, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.(Literally a cut and paste from last week showing no change)

 

Rainfall

 

post-213-0-08644100-1369418707_thumb.png post-213-0-41142400-1369418705_thumb.png

 

June shows below average rainfall for the whole of the UK, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas. For July, generlly below average rainfall for the UK including the Glastonbury area, but above average, in the Midlands.

 

Looking at this for a couple of weeks, it appears to me that the Midlands seems to be highlighted for showery activity when there is potential for this and due to the lower resolution of CFS, this area is always highlighted, so the above rainfall for this area is probably overstated, but understated elsewhere.

 

Summary

Based on the weekly forecasts, June/July is set to see above average temps, have higher pressure than normal (more especially June) and be drier than average more especially June. The better month has changed towards June from July, but the general theme is not too bad.

 

I think we would all be happy with this.

 

There will be further analysis later of the daily raw CFS runs from Net Weather and a summary of the CFS monthly runs from Meteociel.

 

CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 17/5 to 2/5 May, so 7 runs in total.

 

Looking at June first, many of these have High pressure around the UK, quite often to the West or North of the UK, but not over the UK itself, but 4 have pressure over southern UK above average, with 3 below average, temps are generally above average around 2c, more in the north, rainfall pretty neutral away from the Midlands, but this has already been mentioned above.

 

General thoughts for July, 2 runs with pressure well above average, 2 neutral, and 2 well below average, however 6 of the 7 runs, with  a big +ve anomaly to the North/West of the UK, temps are generally above average around 2c,

 

2c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average away from the Midlands.

 

Current trends are for generally decent and settled weather, but HP relenting at times for some heavy showers, more especially inland, of course when these occur are impossible to pinpoint at this stage, hopefully they will give Glastonbury festival period a miss.

 

Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)
 

Pressure / Synoptics
Date........... Runup to Festival .................................................Start / During Festival

17/05/2013...High Pressure in Control with E winds..................LP attempt to push in from SW at times

18/05/2013...HP before, then low pressure from E pushing in..HP in West building

19/05/2013...Low Pressure to NE.............................................HP in South West slowly builds

20/05/2013...Low Pressure over UK/NE...................................HP ridging in from SW

21/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP to start, Ridge rebuilding from SW  

22/05/2013...High Pressure fading...........................................LP developing over S UK to start, HP building over weekend

23/05/2013...Trough push away by High to SW....................... High generally, but perhaps  LP from west Sunday

 

Rainfall / Temperatures
 

Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall

17/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Looking mostly dry, perhaps odd showers      

18/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Some afternoon showers          

19/05/2013 Light Orange / Orange ...............................Showery in run-up, some rain Thursday else mainly dry      

20/05/2013 Light Orange/Orange/Deep Orange ...........Showery beforehand and perhaps during festival itself    

21/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange................................. Showery to start.Drier thereafter        

22/05/2013 Orange........................................................Showery, heavy rain from LP.......Set to miss to South      

23/05/2013 Yellow/Orange.............................................Dry immediate build-up.A few showers mid festival, perhaps more rain sun

 

At this stage, looking a bit better than last week, with Higher Pressure close to the West/ South West looking a positive.

 

Overall Summary

 

Early indications continue to suggest that conditions are likely to be better/around average for time of year and conditions are set to be reasonable, without mud bath conditions. Hopefully next week's update can  maintain this feeling, also next week will see the Meto's long range forecast come into range and this will be looked at going forward.

Edited by Jackone
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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

Thanks for that JACKONE. Could hold some positive prospects.

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