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2013 Chase - Tour 2 Countdown


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

It's come around fast this year - the storm chase starts next week, and as ever we'll be streaming the action live, and the team will be regularly keeping us up to date with the latest forecasts, reports, photos and video. 

 

The first chase day for tour 2 is the 9th, so we're about coming in to model range now - the season has started fairly slowly but there are signs of life coming through as we get into next week..

 

post-2-0-72672300-1367434479_thumb.png post-2-0-56321200-1367434480_thumb.png

 

The staff members on tour 2 are:

Paul Sherman - team leader

Arron Hiscox - GPS and forecaster

Ian MIchaelwaite - Driver and technical

 

The guests are:

Kaddy Lee-Preston (special guest)

Gavin Woolnough

Jo Lough

Catherine Anderson

Stuart Wilson

Kathryn Tyler

 

I'm sure Paul, Ian and Arron will share some of the techie and photographic kit they're packing in with them this year, and if any of the guests want to fill us in on any special goodies they're packing, or indeed have any questions about what to take or anything else related to the tour, please shout!

 

The countdown proper starts now :D

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

In terms of kit in the cars this year, we have:

 

The WXworks, mobile threatnet (Barons) system:

post-2-0-73041500-1367442704_thumb.png

 

We also have mobile broadband to allow us to use the GRlevel3  and AlisonHouse platform for radar and weather data, along with giving access to other net based weather data sources & the SPC.  (These are also WI-FI enabled to allow guests to use the net on their own laptops/tablets/phones)

 

We have weather radios for all the latest tornado and severe storm watch info in the locations we're chasing in. 

 

We also set up radio links between the chase vehicles to allow us to stay in touch, and have GPS running streets and trips for navigation. Plus of course we have the webcams for the live streaming, and in at least one of the cars there's a video camera mounted for ongoing high quality video of what's happening. 

 

Lucky the cars in the USA are quite big really :D

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Good to see we ar readying for action, and long nights watching the streaming from the vehicles. Coffee & match-sticks at the ready for the watchers here.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I would say Confidence is increasing by the day actually Neil. Have been watching the 9th and 10th since it came into the Days 15 & 16 range and every single run has shown it to be exactly the same. It is looking like a nice Caprock Magic Dryline day to me, only thing just not there is the upper flow so Large Hail could be the primary threat, but Supercells should be on tap with nearly 4,000jkg of Cape and decent Moisture running up the Caprock.

 

Todays 00z was showing this.

 

attachicon.gifusacapeli.png - Thursday 9th May

 

attachicon.gifusadew.png - Moisture

 

Starting to look pretty good :D

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Really looking forward to meeting everyone. My Packing crisis starts any moment now :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Any questions about things on the trip please Pm me on here, I would usualy say no to anything more than a lightweight waterproof or cardigan/jumper but this year is full of surprises with regards to the late season snow etc, please also bring along Cd's if you are of a certain music persuasion, bug spray is a must if we are chasing in Texas, not so much of a problem further north into Oklahoma and Kansas at the moment.

 

Any other questions will answer straight away.

 

Also SPC Now hinting at the Ridge being eroded in their latest 4-8 Day Outlook, Western US Trough is now evident in all models and its really just how fast this ejects into the Plains, with ECM Having an active day wednesday, GooFuS is slower with Thursday being the start on some active weather, both show moisture returning though which is a good sign.

 

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6
   WITH REGARD TO FUTURE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER
   THE CNTRL STATES. FOR DAYS 4-5 /SUN-MON/ THE CONSENSUS AMONG
   DETERMINISTIC AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
   DRIFT VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE SERN STATES...LIKELY NOT EXITING THE
   ERN U.S. SEABOARD UNTIL LATE DAY 6 OR EARLY DAY 7.
  
   MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER CA WILL REMAIN
   NEARLY STATIONARY INTO DAY 5 BEFORE POSSIBLY EJECTING INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS BY DAY 7...BUT THERE IS INCONSISTENCY AMONG SOLUTIONS
   REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE.
  
   THE SLOW MOVING ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE OFFSHORE GULF WINDS
   SUGGESTING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6
   AND UNTIL THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. THIS WOULD
   ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF EJECTING WRN U.S. UPPER
   TROUGH. THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN
   THE GFS AND INDICATES MOISTURE RETURNING THROUGH THE PLAINS DAY 7 IN
   ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
   HOWEVER...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISPERSIVE AT THIS
   RANGE. WHILE IT APPEARS SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DAYS 7-8
   /WED-THU/ OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...MODELS HAVE NOT
   CONVERGED SUFFICIENTLY...AND UNCERTAINTIES LINGER REGARDING THE
   SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN.
 

Temperatures for Landing on Tuesday look to be around 25c 77f and on Wednesday landing day looks to be near to 27c 81f.

Both days could also see isolated Thundery Showers.

 

Will be making a decision at the start of next week on wether to Stay the night at the Base Hotel on Wednesday Night or to pick up the last of the guests and head up towards a target area Wednesday evening.

 

Regards

 

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

I have some new gear to play with this year too - a stabiliser and microphone for video footage, on top of all the usual gubbins :

1 x laptop for navigation, radar and general internet use on the go

1 x laptop for photo and video editing

2 x in car mifi for wireless internet access in the cars (and GPS built in for navigation)

1 x verizon payg dongle as a back up plan

2 x GPS dongles

1 x mobile signal amplifier to increase reception in the back of beyond

2 x 12v multi adapters

1 x streaming cam and windscreen mount

1 x Canon 7d with ultra wide 10-24mm and 28-75mm lenses

lots of gb of memory

1 x slr stabiliser for smooth panning etc

1 x shotgun mic and wind baffle

1 x lapel mic for commentary

about a mile of cable

Some sun block, and maybe a white t shirt or two

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Some sun block, and maybe a white t shirt or two

Ian

Add fags and socks, in no particular order, and I'm on your wavelength LOL.

 

12Z GFS still looking pretty good for scenarios from 7th May.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Thought it might be an idea also to let the newbies know just who is on the staff and what sort of experience we have in hopefully getting you great storms and tornadoes.

 

I think I am right in saying we have a collective of nearly 40 years of chase experience between all of the team, which is pretty impressive.

There would also be about 100 Tornadoes between the 7 of the Team Members.

 

After this chase season is over I will have been "Out In The Field" for 255 days good.gif

And probably covered about 120,000 Chase Miles on the road help.gif

The Most Tornadoes in 1 day for us stands at 6 which was last year on the 25th May in Kansas.

 

The Best Tour there has been (And the one to beat) was end of May 2008 when guests saw 13 Tornadoes in 10 days.

 

The Team for this year is as follows,

 

Paul Sherman

Tom Lynch

John Hanrahan

Arron Hiscox

Ian Michaelwaite

Ian Cameron

Dave Vicary

 

good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Looks good for the first few days, action mostly in Texas and you're not missing anything this week. Good luck with everything, looking forward to the whole thing as always.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Iam M.

Have you not got a laptop lap support for Ian C, to prevent roasting his ^&*£$% this year, as the cardboard was thrown away last year?

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

Iam M.

Have you not got a laptop lap support for Ian C, to prevent roasting his ^&*£$% this year, as the cardboard was thrown away last year?

We have an egg protection system available for use, and a new laptop that will hopefully cope with the heat better. It actually looks very cool, and has a 17" screen so everyone can see it better.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. Wind gets on my pip.
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

I'm just starting to pack now (I take forever).  Trying to pack practical things, not girlie things, right?  Heels, heated curling tongs and manicure set should be enough...

 

Can't wait!

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

I'm just starting to pack now (I take forever).  Trying to pack practical things, not girlie things, right?  Heels, heated curling tongs and manicure set should be enough...

 

Can't wait!

Kaddy...

The Sherminator packs heated curling tongs & manicure set, so if you talk to him nicely he might share his. That leaves you more space for the non essentials....

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Time to keep an eye on Tour 2 and what the Models are showing etc.

 

One thing that is still looking certain is quite an active start to Tour 2, now I have been watching GFS Since it showed this on Day 15 and if anything things are improving as we get closer to the event. SPC 4-8 Day outlook now starting to talk about a more active period coming up as well, but due to the blend of Models they use are not highlighting anything yet although would expect to see a day 4 or 5 put in over the weekend when models converge a little bit more.

 

There looks to be Thunderstorm chances on both Tuesday and Wednesday Night near the DFW Area, in fact GFS Is showing a nice little MCS On Wednesday Night

 

post-24-0-60651800-1367582189_thumb.png - drinks.gif

 

Over the last few days the one missing ingredient (Upper Support) has been slowly but surely showing itself on the Models, with the Southern Arm of the Split Jet Stream starting to impact the Southern Plains end of next week. So with all this in mind and at the T162 Range now take a look at the charts below, still looks like a nice dryline day with Extreme Cape and decent LCL's for Tornadoes if Storms can overcome any capping issues.

 

post-24-0-77017300-1367582325_thumb.png - Cape off the Chart

 

post-24-0-22066900-1367582359_thumb.png - Decent Moisture

 

post-24-0-76703300-1367582387_thumb.png - Upper Support nosing into the Southern Plains

 

So at this stage the models are flipping between a Texas Panhandle or Oklahoma Chase and I will leave you with this sounding from near Lawton for 6pm on Thursday, I think it speaks for itself and shows a very nice Set-Up with 82/73f Spreads and nice turning with Height.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=05&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.lat=34.5609&sounding.lon=-97.9541

 

Cant wait to get set up now and get out there amongst those Supercells!

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

I'm just starting to pack now (I take forever).  Trying to pack practical things, not girlie things, right?  Heels, heated curling tongs and manicure set should be enough...

 

Can't wait!

Hi Kaddy, welcome to the forums. You've got the essentials covered there, but don't forget the ball gown for the evenings where we eat out in luxury restaurants, though I do find that green clashes terribly with the decor in McDonalds, so it's best to avoid that.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Going on past experience, perhaps if Kaddy wants to pack a few spare car tyres, these may be of use.....

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

I'd like to wish all the team and guests the best of luck ! I have a good feeling that mother nature has been holding all its goodies in the bag until yous get over there! 

 

Some pointers id like to give for any of the newbies going this year... 

 

1. If you want good music to keep you awake on the journeys , get into Paul Sherman's car. good.gif

2. When they say you have you to be up and ready to leave for half 8 , you'll most likely see Ian M and Ian C wondering down just after 9.. ish...whistling.gif

3. Whenever John H is about and yous are talking to people from a local town, please remember that there IS an Irish person along with yous. oops.gif

4. When you see any sort of CG of Anvil lightning you MUST go " WOAHHHHHH! " clapping.gif

 

5. When out taking photos of a storm , 1 beep from the drivers mean get back to the car straight away. 2 beeps ... well .. yeah, dont let that happen lol oops.gif

6. If your driving along in Tom Lynch's car , you MUST whistle the theme to any classic 90's tv show. 

7. For my and John H 's sake.. its pronounced    " TUNDER" OK!?! ... DEAL WITH IT! biggrin.png

8. For every Tour group , there needs to be an official tour group photo , usually undertaking outside a steakhouse after a good day of chasing. 

9. If your on Tom Lynch's tour  , be prepared to be interviewed by him at some stage , or perhaps by a turkey laugh.png

10. Subway will most likely be your new best friend whilst over there. 

11. Do not let Dave V or Ian C by shots , cause once it starts it probably wont stop ! Lol... even if you don't drink you'll be having one , trust me! ha

 

12. Just hope you never have to be in a CODE BROWN situation!! rofl.gif

13. Talk to Arron about bets.... he loves a good chat about betting .. ;) 

14. If you rather try eat in any way healthy , try stock up for a few day's of snacks from a Wall-mart , unless you like the idea of petrol station grub lol.

15. A tripod and shutter release cable is your best friend when taking shots of a storm . 

16. When there's CG's making there way by yous on open ground , best to get in the car , alot of us know too well how close some can hit! lol!

 

17, ENJOY IT!!! biggrin.png

 

I'll be thinking of being over there and the excitement of gettin up every morning to knowing what may lay ahead while im doing exams.. cray.gif

 

IAN dirol.gif

 

7433167652_726d1aa973_c.jpg

 

8610845421_b0938dfcc4_c.jpg

 

7433379220_426dfe2546_c.jpg

Edited by DubWeatherAddict
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Location: Horsham

Hello! Extremely excited to be joining this tour and meeting you guys.  Considering at the start of this week I had no idea I was going to Texas next week I need to go shopping before the packing crisis can start!  Priority items by the looks of it: remote shutter release, a spare battery (and a ball gown ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Welcome to the forum Kathryn - next week is starting to look like it could be a good one, hope you're ready!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Welcome newbies! Looking forward to getting out there now :D Things having started great with me prep though with dell cocking up the delivery of my new laptop so having to sort out my old one :( Forgot to get a mic for the camcorder too with everything going on so hopefully IanM will scoot me down to radioshack early next week to pick one up :D Packing my sled too just in case!

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Posted
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale
  • Weather Preferences: Summer - Storms Winter - Blizzards
  • Location: Bamford, Rochdale

Welcome newbies! Looking forward to getting out there now :D Things having started great with me prep though with dell cocking up the delivery of my new laptop so having to sort out my old one :( Forgot to get a mic for the camcorder too with everything going on so hopefully IanM will scoot me down to radioshack early next week to pick one up :D Packing my sled too just in case!

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Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire

Good Luck Tour 2 ...

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