Are we about to enter another mini ice age ?

[stewfox]

Colder winters cooler summers sounds familar are we due another mini ice age ?

Bottom line know one has identified specfic causes although a number of therories have been put forward (see attached link).

Strong evidence these episodes were sometimes more localised rather then say a cooling of the NH.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Colder winters cooler summers sounds familar are we due another mini ice age ?

Bottom line know one has identified specfic causes although a number of therories have been put forward (see attached link).

Strong evidence these episodes were sometimes more localised rather then say a cooling of the NH.

http://en.wikipedia..../Little_Ice_Age

I'm not sure if I'd say we're overdue as such, but perhaps that a period of anomalous northern blocking around the north Atlantic region leading to cool wet summers and increased cold spells in winter may be on the cards?

While the little ice age came off the back of the medieval warm period (which was still well below even the 61-90 average), if we were to enter a similar period, we'd be dropping from a higher starting point. So perhaps a drop back to temperatures more akin to the early 20th century?

We'd also still be dealing with a general background warming (whatever people believe the cause to be) so perhaps the cool temperatures wouldn't last as long as the LIA?

We also have much less sea ice now and so less ability to retain cold air to our north during summer months, which may further lower the chances of significantly cool summer months.

But the shift in weather patterns recently has been noticeable. Best to keep on eye on a tendency for ridging towards Greenland to build during spring. It's been one of the main features of our recent terrible summers and also the massive melting in Greenland.

[Methuselah]

Colder winters cooler summers sounds familar are we due another mini ice age ?

Bottom line know one has identified specfic causes although a number of therories have been put forward (see attached link).

Strong evidence these episodes were sometimes more localised rather then say a cooling of the NH.

http://en.wikipedia..../Little_Ice_Age

I've no idea, stew...But, the last six/seven years' weather has been very reminiscent of the 1960s...

[stewfox]

I'm not sure if I'd say we're overdue as such, but perhaps that a period of anomalous northern blocking around the north Atlantic region leading to cool wet summers and increased cold spells in winter may be on the cards?

While the little ice age came off the back of the medieval warm period (which was still well below even the 61-90 average), if we were to enter a similar period, we'd be dropping from a higher starting point. So perhaps a drop back to temperatures more akin to the early 20th century?

We'd also still be dealing with a general background warming (whatever people believe the cause to be) so perhaps the cool temperatures wouldn't last as long as the LIA?

We also have much less sea ice now and so less ability to retain cold air to our north during summer months, which may further lower the chances of significantly cool summer months.

But the shift in weather patterns recently has been noticeable. Best to keep on eye on a tendency for ridging towards Greenland to build during spring. It's been one of the main features of our recent terrible summers and also the massive melting in Greenland.

Cant remove the 'overdue' mods ? but wrong word. A drop back to a more normal cycle maybe time will tell or something more. Heavy saturated ground that lasted through last summer. I read an article that a series of 10 coolers summers led to one 50 year 'cooling event' but evidence is patchy as well as cause.

Backgroud warming factors might might come back with a venage and by 2030 we will all be longing for a sub 5C in winter or people will be fed up with snow and be looking for warmth at T384 in January on the forum ?? The Barlett high will be longed for

[jethro]

According to some Solar Physicists, the answer is yes. The general consensus is that the Sun has gone into a period of quieter activity, how quiet and for how long remains to be seen.

The most plausible reason for why a quiet Sun results in localised, generally NH weather changes are the changes in UV which happen as a result of the quiet Sun. The alteration in UV levels impacts upon the atmosphere, leading to changes in the jet streams. This in turn results in greater and more prolonged periods where our weather comes from the East - hence colder and snowier.

There are some thoughts that the changes in the Arctic ice levels also can impact upon our weather but currently there seems no way to decipher that signal from the already changed weather due to the Solar influence. The Sun has chosen quite an inconvenient time to slumber. If the ice levels do impact upon weather here, there is currently no way of knowing whether those changes will moderate the Sun's influence or amplify that influence.

Although it could be argued that climate change will moderate the cold and that if the Sun has gone into a prolonged, deep minimum, we won't experience the depth of cold experienced during the last Little Ice Age, I can't personally see that it will make much discernible difference to this part of the world. As recent winters have shown, it's still blinking cold in Scandinavia and Russia during the winter, if our weather comes from that direction, it will be considerably colder here than we are used to. Deep snow and biting cold on 23rd March in this country is not usual, it's due to the extensive blocking pattern which has been prevalent all winter, a pattern which if the theory on UV levels is correct and the Sun continues to be quiet, is something we can expect with greater regularity.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/users/users/1353

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/

[Methuselah]

Cant remove the 'overdue' mods ? but wrong word. A drop back to a more normal cycle maybe time will tell or something more. Heavy saturated ground that lasted through last summer. I read an article that a series of 10 coolers summers led to one 50 year 'cooling event' but evidence is patchy as well as cause.

Backgroud warming factors might might come back with a venage and by 2030 we will all be longing for a sub 5C in winter or people will be fed up with snow and be looking for warmth at T384 in January on the forum ?? The Barlett high will be longed for

Just changed the title, stew - hope it's okay...

Agree with jethro, on the Solar activity problem. But we mustn't underplay the effect of all that extra open water that the recent ice-melt has created: as, surely, it must add to the amount of convective 'lake-effect' in coastal parts of Northern Europe during late autumn/ early winter...

Two effects working in the same - for NW Europe anyway - direction will be difficult to untangle?

[BornFromTheVoid]

There are some thoughts that the changes in the Arctic ice levels also can impact upon our weather but currently there seems no way to decipher that signal from the already changed weather due to the Solar influence. The Sun has chosen quite an inconvenient time to slumber. If the ice levels do impact upon weather here, there is currently no way of knowing whether those changes will moderate the Sun's influence or amplify that influence.

Just to be clear, this incorrect and old thinking. Rather than drag this into a debate about sea ice, I'm just going to link to some studies that have shown the link and provided evidence, statistical, observation and mathematical for the link between sea ice loss and changes to our weather.

Evidence linking Arctic Amplification with Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes http://marine.rutger...L051000_pub.pdf

Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent http://www.colorado....009GL037274.pdf

Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation http://web.mit.edu/j...al_Tellus12.pdf

Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice http://www.webpages....& Wang 2010.pdf

For those more mathematically inclined, this paper describes the physics and equations involved, though I can't find a free copy to link to

Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes http://www.pnas.org/...2/28/1222000110

And a video, from Jennifer Francis (this was even before some of the papers above were released) explaining in a simple fashion how the link works

Solar and Arctic Amplification are working together to change our weather patterns

[vforvendetta]

Global ice anomaly is positive, with the miniscule -400km of missing ice in the arctic dwarfed by the plus 900k of extra sea ice in the antarctic. Whatever the "believers" say, there is no mechanism for sea ice to remember that it was lower than ususal in summer, and there is no mechanism in their theories for explaining why there is so much more ice in the antarctic.

[Harve]

The swing in winter and summer weather from 2009 and 2007 respectively is pretty remarkable, but I find the overall warmth from 1988-2007 (for winters) and the 90's and early-mid 00's (for summers) to be just as remarkable, and that came to an end fairly rapidly. We've yet to see a notably cool summer month according to the CET - in the bottom 10% of months, i.e. to be expected every 10 years for each month - despite plenty of near/below average ones, Perhaps the lack of summer sea ice is making that difficult, even if synoptics mean our months are still slightly chilly and rather wet?

[Tamara]

We have a swathe of negative natural forcings which have come into being in recent years:- weak (and likely ever weaker) solar cyclical patterns, a switch to overall La nina dominated ENSO phases, and a predominantly -PDO phase. On top of that we have the chaotic arctic ice patterns. Of the negative phases mentioned, these all have distinct effects on jet stream behaviour, and in the case of weaker solar input we know that ozone distribution and stratospheric temperature profiles are affected (most especially during -QBO phases)

The evidence is there for us to see, based on our existing knowledge of how solar patters behave, that weaker cycles (of which Cycle 24 is the first) will last and intensify for upwards of the next 20 to 30 years. The PDO phasing as we have previously seen has influenced our weather patterns over ten/twenty years periods through the last century and we are not going to see the effects of the nina dominant effects on sea temperatures globally for some time to come yet, in addition to the lag effects from ever deeper negative solar cycling.

At the minute we simply have no idea what the sum total of all this might entail - I think it is true that the combination of chaotic arctic ice patterns and a quiet sun are going to muddy the water - especially wrt any climate change signal through whatever greater/lesser causes. But greater amplification of weather patterns is already starkly evident and it might be reasonable to suggest that the combination of both factors together will only get greater over coming years - especially in tandem with negative PDO and ENSO forcings.

It is no coincidence whatsoever though that weather patterns have flipped and become much more amplified at the same time as these natural forcings have switched.

[jethro]

And if the AMO goes into negative too, we can expect increasingly cold winter weather. I'm personally expecting our winters to regularly resemble those during WW11, having said that, even during the LIA there were mild winters and hot summers.

[Methuselah]

Global ice anomaly is positive, with the miniscule -400km of missing ice in the arctic dwarfed by the plus 900k of extra sea ice in the antarctic. Whatever the "believers" say, there is no mechanism for sea ice to remember that it was lower than ususal in summer, and there is no mechanism in their theories for explaining why there is so much more ice in the antarctic.

How is the latest bunch of invariably finagled 'global' figures going to have any bearing on the current reductions in both Arctic sea-ice and solar output; especially in respect to recent (currently unexplained) North West European climate/weather anomalies?

Please, can we try and answer Stew's perfectly-valid question and refrain from point-scoring?

And if the AMO goes into negative too, we can expect increasingly cold winter weather. I'm personally expecting our winters to regularly resemble those during WW11, having said that, even during the LIA there were mild winters and hot summers.

Now, that's what I call 'thinking ahead', J!

[Tamara]

Yes, negative AMO is quite possibly one of the potential lag effects down the line

[jethro]

How is the latest bunch of invariably finagled 'global' figures going to have any bearing on the current reductions in both Arctic sea-ice and solar output; especially in respect to recent (currently unexplained) North West European climate/weather anomalies?

Please, can we try and answer Stew's perfectly-valid question and refrain from point-scoring?

Now, that's what I call 'thinking ahead', J!

It's the gardener in me, I'm always thinking ahead.

Wood burners are the way of the future.....we're going to need them.

Yes, negative AMO is quite possibly one of the potential lag effects down the line

With increasing fuel costs and likelihood they'll climb ever higher, the future could be rather grim.

[Methuselah]

It's the gardener in me, I'm always thinking ahead.

Wood burners are the way of the future.....we're going to need them.

With increasing fuel costs and likelihood they'll climb ever higher, the future could be rather grim.

Until the energy companies can find a way of engineering a worldwide wood-shortage, that is...

[Summer of 95]

The swing in winter and summer weather from 2009 and 2007 respectively is pretty remarkable, but I find the overall warmth from 1988-2007 (for winters) and the 90's and early-mid 00's (for summers) to be just as remarkable, and that came to an end fairly rapidly. We've yet to see a notably cool summer month according to the CET - in the bottom 10% of months, i.e. to be expected every 10 years for each month - despite plenty of near/below average ones, Perhaps the lack of summer sea ice is making that difficult, even if synoptics mean our months are still slightly chilly and rather wet?

The 2007 summer change was striking when we look back at it, every bit as much as the 1988 winter change which lasted 20 years. The real difference between summers now and the 90s is the amount of cloud, which has made cool summer months have average CETs due to high minima. The maxima have really plummeted- how many times have we seen 30C away from the London area since 2006?

[keithlucky]

I'm not sure if I'd say we're overdue as such, but perhaps that a period of anomalous northern blocking around the north Atlantic region leading to cool wet summers and increased cold spells in winter may be on the cards?

While the little ice age came off the back of the medieval warm period (which was still well below even the 61-90 average), if we were to enter a similar period, we'd be dropping from a higher starting point. So perhaps a drop back to temperatures more akin to the early 20th century?

We'd also still be dealing with a general background warming (whatever people believe the cause to be) so perhaps the cool temperatures wouldn't last as long as the LIA?

We also have much less sea ice now and so less ability to retain cold air to our north during summer months, which may further lower the chances of significantly cool summer months.

But the shift in weather patterns recently has been noticeable. Best to keep on eye on a tendency for ridging towards Greenland to build during spring. It's been one of the main features of our recent terrible summers and also the massive melting in Greenland.

Yet another correction of data Greenland ice melt overestimated due to satelite problems http://nsidc.org/gre...melt-detection/

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Perhaps a bit over-simplistic (I'm not a climate scientist after all !), but of the basic theories I've seen, a significant shift south of the jet stream caused by a reduction in the temperature difference between the polar air mass and mid-latitude air masses, (I believe the Arctic has warmed more than mid-latitude regions over the past 30 years ?). is going to have a big impact on mid-latitude weather patterns. Maybe not an ice age, but for the UK anyway, weather more usually associated with the GIN corridor is affecting us more regularly.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The swing in winter and summer weather from 2009 and 2007 respectively is pretty remarkable, but I find the overall warmth from 1988-2007 (for winters) and the 90's and early-mid 00's (for summers) to be just as remarkable, and that came to an end fairly rapidly. We've yet to see a notably cool summer month according to the CET - in the bottom 10% of months, i.e. to be expected every 10 years for each month - despite plenty of near/below average ones, Perhaps the lack of summer sea ice is making that difficult, even if synoptics mean our months are still slightly chilly and rather wet?

Yes. This is pretty much my thinking. I believe the cooling effects from lower Solar Radiation via the La Nina base state and -PDO has favored our "chilly and rather wet" synoptics but the background warming via the Arctic Ice Loss has diluted our cold pool and Polar Vortex meaning that our cold airmasses are not as cold as they use to be, which results in our coldest summer and winter months being warmer than if the same months occurred with a cooler Arctic. Hence July 2011 is the new and warmer July 1888 and January 2010 is the new and warmer January 1963. This conflict of forcings also means we see swings from cool/cold winters to mild/hot springs then back to near average/or even cool summers but then back to mild/hot autumns all in the same year as we saw in 2009 and 2011. Edited March 23, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Mapantz]

Answer to the thread title. No.

I've had bad Summers and worse Winters back in the 80's, talk of mini-ice ages never popped up.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Mapantz

[Gael_Force]

We have a swathe of negative natural forcings which have come into being in recent years:- weak (and likely ever weaker) solar cyclical patterns, a switch to overall La nina dominated ENSO phases, and a predominantly -PDO phase. On top of that we have the chaotic arctic ice patterns. Of the negative phases mentioned, these all have distinct effects on jet stream behaviour, and in the case of weaker solar input we know that ozone distribution and stratospheric temperature profiles are affected (most especially during -QBO phases)

The evidence is there for us to see, based on our existing knowledge of how solar patters behave, that weaker cycles (of which Cycle 24 is the first) will last and intensify for upwards of the next 20 to 30 years. The PDO phasing as we have previously seen has influenced our weather patterns over ten/twenty years periods through the last century and we are not going to see the effects of the nina dominant effects on sea temperatures globally for some time to come yet, in addition to the lag effects from ever deeper negative solar cycling.

At the minute we simply have no idea what the sum total of all this might entail - I think it is true that the combination of chaotic arctic ice patterns and a quiet sun are going to muddy the water - especially wrt any climate change signal through whatever greater/lesser causes. But greater amplification of weather patterns is already starkly evident and it might be reasonable to suggest that the combination of both factors together will only get greater over coming years - especially in tandem with negative PDO and ENSO forcings.

It is no coincidence whatsoever though that weather patterns have flipped and become much more amplified at the same time as these natural forcings have switched.

Good post! Succinctly sums up where we are and where we might be going.

I do remember reading, many years ago, the likelihood of a more permanent Nina phase occurring in tandem with the reduction in visible sunspots that the author envisaged for the beginning of the new millenium.

I do wonder if the Arctic ice loss is also tied in with the changes in the sun's output - the incursions of warmth in the Arctic are due to the increasingly amplified jet which in turn is recognised as a feature of past grand minimums.

[stewfox]

Answer to the thread title. No.

I've had bad Summers and worse Winters back in the 80's, talk of mini-ice ages never popped up.

It has always 'popped up' as its happen before. Its a return to colder winters and cooler summers over a extended period of time 50/100 years or more. With human background forcing may be it wont happen buts its always been interesting and one for study. In the 1970s there was talk or a return to an ice age.

Edited March 23, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

For anyone seeing the link from the 07' record sea ice low and the 'change' in N.Hemisphere ciculation then what of the massive drop we saw last summer? How will this add into the effect's we are already seeing?

To me 'wave forms' seem to follow simplr rules so if you increase the Ampluitude you decrease the wavelength. Will the added energy we will accrue from even less sea ice (and it's rapid loss through the early season due to the ongoing fracturing of the virgin pack prior to melt season onset) lead to such an amplification of the patterns we have seen since 07'? Will we see constant WAA into areas of the Arctic Basin (further accelerating melt in that region) and a shift westward of the stalled trough that has blighted us these past 6 years?

If you saw the synoptics we have seen the recent weeks over summer would that not bring us an extension of the Continental climate across the UK and leave the 'wetter stuff' over west Ireland/Atlantic?.

The Home grown inner continental H.P. systems certainly produce deep cold over winter but , as summer arrives, this turns into excessive heat and drought conditions. For the cold around the northern Hemisphere this winter we need not look north but to the inner Continental H.P. systems and the export of this continental cold.

Spring is here (though you would not credit it with the snow levels outside!) but just as the 'ice record extents' when ice is driven into areas outside the basin, the late cold will play no part in the summer conditions. The positioning of the Jet Troughs and peaks will and if these are reflecting ice loss from the Arctic Basin (and early snow losss from the continents) then folk will be feeling a tad silly about wondering at L.I.A. conditions when they see the N.Hemisphere in 6 weeks time (once the stronger sun works his majik).

I know I cannot alter the Arctic ice loss but I do hope I'm right about the intensification of it's impacts (please do let it be a 'flip' to an even more destructive summer season!!!) and the chance of a summer this year!!!

Edited March 23, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[The PIT]

Answer to the thread title. No.

I've had bad Summers and worse Winters back in the 80's, talk of mini-ice ages never popped up.

Well actually it did there was even a book released. Got it somewhere. I'm pretty sure if governments make grants available to research the next ice age they'll be ample proof with dodgy charts and figures to back the "fact up"

[ANYWEATHER]

Ok, Just saw this, and I have little time to air my views as Im going out shortly. Definite, climatic shift in the Uks weather since and including 2007. This cannot be coincedental, and there are several factors at play along of course with the natural climate change of our planet. Climate scientists are already revising there previous estimates on the so called man made climate change or global warming theories. I do believe we are entering a much cooler phase, I will try to ellaborate my views on this thread in the very near future. But certainly some interesting times for weather, but also potentially dangerous for folks right across the planet.