South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/03/13 13z---->

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Good morning all, beautiful but bitterly cold day here on South Dartmoor, I'm still wincing at our lack of snow but really pleased that the SE didn't steal it all from our region.

Haven't got time to look at the models this morn, but what are our chances for the rest of the week please?

And still experiencing. Heavy drifting snow still falling, temp -0.9c with comparisons being made to 1979.

Wow sounds great so long as people are listening to warnings and staying safe.

What totals are you up to this morning?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Good morning all, beautiful but bitterly cold day here on South Dartmoor, I'm still wincing at our lack of snow but really pleased that the SE didn't steal it all from our region.

Haven't got time to look at the models this morn, but what are our chances for the rest of the week please?

Wow sounds great so long as people are listening to warnings and staying safe.

What totals are you up to this morning?

As for the rest of the week , tomorrow looks the best day , but not sure on how intense the showers will be ...

[khodds]

What? More snow showers tomorrow? For Somerset?

[jethro]

What is it they say about March? In like a Lion, out like a Lamb? I wish the Lamb would hurry up, I'm bleeding frozen.

Cold with snow, yes please. Biting cold, bone dry with a wind which chills to the bone, no thank you, it can bugger off pronto.

[Beast of Plympton]

Still very cold here. Woke up this morning to the missus scraping ice from the inside of our bedroom window

Anyone know of any more snow chances this week??

Edited March 12, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[snowmadchrisuk]

What? More snow showers tomorrow? For Somerset?

The Models are showing widespread showers tomorrow, Falling as Snow Devon Eastwards ;...

Edited March 12, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Mapantz]

Currently sunny - Temp: -2.1°C, Dew point: -8.1, Wind chill: -1.9°C, Apparent temp: -3.8°C

I need to beat -9.7 to break the dew point record. :o

[khodds]

The Models are showing widespread showers tomorrow, Falling as Snow Devon Eastwards ;...

Lovely! Thanks Chris, I've given up on looking at the models recently!

[Beast of Plympton]

Snowing in Princetown.

[gottolovethisweather]

From what I can gather, it is to be a week of well scattered showers and sunnier intervals with the winds eventually backing towards the North later today and for a couple of days thereafter. Most showers clinging to the immediate coastline. However, by the weekend, things are looking much wetter with heavy prolonged cold rain on Saturday, perhaps with a brief period of leading edge snowfall.

Edited March 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[George]

Few snow grains falling here, blowing in the wind.

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst things can change quite abruptly and I wouldn't mind betting, the final week in March does in fact go against what is currently being suggested. If you are looking for Spring like warmth, any average to above average Temperatures are pure fantasy right now. The following comes from Gibby's analysis of all the 12z output suites from yesterday.

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In Summary there is very little sign of Spring tonight unless you believe in the far reaches of the GFS operational run. There looks to be a lot of cold or rather cold conditions to come over the next few weeks with Low pressure close by making for some potent showers of rain with the risk of hail, thunder, sleet and snow all very possible in any one place over the coming period with some frost at night. There should not be a repeat of the current severity of cold though after tomorrow.

[snowmadchrisuk]

From what I can gather, it is to be a week of well scattered showers and sunnier intervals with the winds eventually backing towards the North later today and for a couple of days thereafter. Most showers clinging to the immediate coastline. However, by the weekend, things are looking much wetter with heavy prolonged cold rain on Saturday, perhaps with a brief period of leading edge snowfall.

Difference is tomorrow the Showers are coming from the West and not the East , so Bristol Channel coasts will probably do quite well , starting from probably tonight .. Showers are also showing over the SW Thursday before Friday's system moves in . Some models are now showing this as a Snow event for the East of our region ... Some snow is very likely given intensity and 850's below 0 .. If it falls in the early hours could be interesting ... Mendips especially.

[gottolovethisweather]

And here is the MetO take on things from day 6 to day 15.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 26 Mar 2013:

This weekend and next week conditions are set to remain unsettled and on the cold side for March. Many southern areas will be cloudy with rain and perhaps some hill snow. Other areas will see brighter weather with wintry showers, mainly in the north. Next week, often rather cloudy with further spells of rain or snow. Some heavy rain is likely at times, whilst northern, eastern and central parts have the greatest chance of any snow, leading to accumulations in places. Temperatures will remain below average; the nights frequently cold and frosty with icy patches, feeling cold by day, especially over northern Britain where it will often be windy. Looking beyond next week, conditions are expected to remain unsettled with below average temperatures

[festivalking]

And here is the MetO take on things from day 6 to day 15.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 26 Mar 2013:

This weekend and next week conditions are set to remain unsettled and on the cold side for March. Many southern areas will be cloudy with rain and perhaps some hill snow. Other areas will see brighter weather with wintry showers, mainly in the north. Next week, often rather cloudy with further spells of rain or snow. Some heavy rain is likely at times, whilst northern, eastern and central parts have the greatest chance of any snow, leading to accumulations in places. Temperatures will remain below average; the nights frequently cold and frosty with icy patches, feeling cold by day, especially over northern Britain where it will often be windy. Looking beyond next week, conditions are expected to remain unsettled with below average temperatures

mmmm going back to marginal then.......coastal regions will read this with a heavy heart

[gottolovethisweather]

Difference is tomorrow the Showers are coming from the West and not the East , so Bristol Channel coasts will probably do quite well , starting from probably tonight .. Showers are also showing over the SW Thursday before Friday's system moves in . Some models are now showing this as a Snow event for the East of our region ... Some snow is very likely given intensity and 850's below 0 .. If it falls in the early hours could be interesting ... Mendips especially.

Ah I see, Thanks Chris. Like others, I am playing catch up with the models and am looking at a few different sources for my info. In spite of what the MetO might suggest longer-term, it wouldn't take much of a shift to bring more snowy episodes back to this neck of the wood either, short term and longer term.

For those not so aware, when the MetO put together their longer term forecasts, they are of course attempting to forsee a scenario covering the whole of the UK and are simply not be able to pick out specific developments and second guess where and when they might occur.

All very technical this forecasting game.

mmmm going back to marginal then.......coastal regions will read this with a heavy heart

To be expected I guess, as the clock is ticking. Whilst the snow lovers amongst us are still in with a shout for at least the next ten to fifteen days at this rate.

[Mapantz]

mmmm going back to marginal then.......coastal regions will read this with a heavy heart

It doesn't bother me in the slightest. It is a bit gutting when you miss practically everything, or if it does snow, it's gone in a few hours but i've become resilient to it now, it's like i have a black heart.

I'll probably be shot for saying it but i don't mind the rain even if it's on the weekend, i have an unhealthy interest in the weather, so rain wind & showers is right up my street!

Edited March 12, 2013 by Mapantz

[festivalking]

Ah I see, Thanks Chris. Like others, I am playing catch up with the models and am looking at a few different sources for my info. In spite of what the MetO might suggest longer-term, it wouldn't take much of a shift to bring more snowy episodes back to this neck of the wood either, short term and longer term.

For those not so aware, when the MetO put together their longer term forecasts, they are of course attempting to forsee a scenario covering the whole of the UK and are simply not be able to pick out specific developments and second guess where and when they might occur.

All very technical this forecasting game.

To be expected I guess, as the clock is ticking. Whilst the snow lovers amongst us are still in with a shout for at least the next ten to fifteen days at this rate.

Very true but least this episode has convinced folk that you can get decent snow in March! I for one was an unbeliever until this week.

[festivalking]

It doesn't bother me in the slightest. It is a bit gutting when you miss practically everything, or if it does snow, it's gone in a few hours but i've become resilient to it now, it's like i have a black heart.

I'll probably be shot for saying it but i don't mind the rain even if it's on the weekend, i have an unhealthy interest in the weather, so rain wind & showers is right up my street!

Yep you have to laugh when even the channel islands get a pasting and you don't! Was in Wareham at the weekend (from worth matravers originally)

[Evening thunder]

It doesn't bother me in the slightest. It is a bit gutting when you miss practically everything, or if it does snow, it's gone in a few hours but i've become resilient to it now, it's like i have a black heart.

I'll probably be shot for saying it but i don't mind the rain even if it's on the weekend, i have an unhealthy interest in the weather, so rain wind & showers is right up my street!

Hardly anything here either, I am finding it a bit frustrating hearing all this snow in most other places when I miss out again.

and I quite agree, I'm not one to always curse Atlantic weather, as it can be active and interesting, more so than the easterly in late February lol. I often don't mind rain events (unless it's grey with light frontal rain for ages), and sunshine and convective showers will do nicely as we head through March and April

[Andy Bown]

Not often you can say its snowing at sunny at the same time but I can right now.

Fun isn't it! Happened all afternoon in Warminster yesterday and for about 2 hours in Bradford On Avon where I was out working

this morning.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ah I see, Thanks Chris. Like others, I am playing catch up with the models and am looking at a few different sources for my info. In spite of what the MetO might suggest longer-term, it wouldn't take much of a shift to bring more snowy episodes back to this neck of the wood either, short term and longer term.

For those not so aware, when the MetO put together their longer term forecasts, they are of course attempting to forsee a scenario covering the whole of the UK and are simply not be able to pick out specific developments and second guess where and when they might occur.

All very technical this forecasting game.

To be expected I guess, as the clock is ticking. Whilst the snow lovers amongst us are still in with a shout for at least the next ten to fifteen days at this rate.

With the amount of blocking now shown on the Models , I would have thought an event like Easter Sunday 2008 might become possible, (may have been 2009) I am not sure how well the SW did out of that though as I was living in Leicestershire at the time ... But Plenty of Snow chances for Bristol NEward on current models .. All you need is a fresh injection of Cold air followed by a disturbance moving south ... Of course as we get into April we will be far to marginal down here , but we still have a good 2 weeks of possibility for something to develop left ...

Edited March 12, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Frosty_wsm]

Of course as we get into April we will be far to marginal down here , but we still have a good 2 weeks of possibility for something to develop left ...

Dunno what year it was but we had lying snow here on Apr 9th, I remember that well as it was the day after my birthday, heavy rain showers the night before, even gone midnight it was still rain showers yet when I checked early the following morning we had a fair few inches of snow lying on the ground.

[Andy Bown]

Just thinking about and looking forward to tomorrow's showery conditions, hopefully a very clean convective day with some

large CBs developing by the afternoon. As well as rain, sleet, snow and hail I wonder if it could be a day for heavy soft hail?

[Nights King]

With the amount of blocking now shown on the Models , I would have thought an event like Easter Sunday 2008 might become possible, (may have been 2009) I am not sure how well the SW did out of that though as I was living in Leicestershire at the time ... But Plenty of Snow chances for Bristol NEward on current models .. All you need is a fresh injection of Cold air followed by a disturbance moving south ... Of course as we get into April we will be far to marginal down here , but we still have a good 2 weeks of possibility for something to develop left ...

I don't really give up looking until second week of april to be honest although long lasting snow gets rare once you leave march.

Dunno what year it was but we had lying snow here on Apr 9th, I remember that well as it was the day after my birthday, heavy rain showers the night before, even gone midnight it was still rain showers yet when I checked early the following morning we had a fair few inches of snow lying on the ground.

yes on mendip we got 11 inches from that or there abouts with large drifts. 1999 or 2000

Edited March 12, 2013 by mullender83