scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 10/03/13 09z ------>

[Hawesy]

I must admit I've accepted the fact 2012/13 wasn't/isn't to be for me in terms of getting a decent (2cm or more) snowfall here in Crail - think I had my chance early last week and was just unlucky with shower distribution. The longer I live here the more I realise that going two or three years between measurable snowfalls isn't that unusual.

Good luck to those seeking more snow but I'm longing for a little spring warmth - pity the models are having none of it!

Edited March 17, 2013 by Hawesy

[Buriedundersnow]

12z NAE showing snow overnight tonight but will prob be with elevation

[Buriedundersnow]

this is the ppn accumulation from the NAE 12z from when the snow is due to start till the end of the run

[Buriedundersnow]

12z NAE snow charts from monday evening till the end of run

[Buriedundersnow]

nice GFS 12z ppn charts for monday evening into tuesday

[Buriedundersnow]

i cant help but thinking with snow falling through tuesday and wit pretty good cloud cover we wont see very much melt on tuesday and will still have snow on the ground into wednesday

[Buriedundersnow]

just a note there is snow being reported in the yorkshire thread from that blob of miosture moving up through england and one guy reporting snow is only 41m above sea level

[A Winter's Tale]

Just freezing cold rain so far today although Glasgow airport did report snowfall earlier this morning. This coming week is setting up to be quite significant for winter conditions this late in the season/ Plenty of chances of snowfall, especially in eastern areas, and it starts tonight with a spell of snowfall likely for some areas. It would be very special if some areas received a couple of inches during the coming days but I'd settle for a few extra snowfalls to add up the tally for this month and the season aswell as the last sub 5C maximum of the season. This should make for a nice finale to the winter weather of the 2012/2013 season with a cold March mean temperature also likely but don't rule out spells of wintry weather during April - such as last year - amongst the established Spring conditions.

[Snowplough33]

Been at Glenshee today. Great conditions still. Snowed on and off all day, but even at car park level which is 650 ms (+/- 2000 ft,) the snow was melting on the cars.

I guess that some areas are gonna get huge totals over the next 3 days. Hope to be on the correct side of margin, but knife edge stuff here. Time will tell. Everything possible crossed.

[spindrift1980]

Went for a walk in Leadhills today - 0C and snowing at 390m asl but latterly the new stuff falling was melting as it landed on cars etc. Some proper Christmas card-style scenes though! Probably 10cm. or so on the ground. Could be some very deep cover up there by Tuesday perhaps. Not a great day for photography with murky white skies and poor visibility but will post any decent pics later.

In the morning, there was uniform snow cover south of Larkhall, but rain and sleet below about 250m had done some damage to low ground cover by this afternoon.

[Buriedundersnow]

i know its a while away but that atlantic low has been modeled for a few runs now and this is where the GFS brings the front and if that came off it would be another big dump of snow

to add a bit of sensibility to this post i should add the ECM 0z wants to totally kill the front when it hits wales

[LomondSnowstorm]

NAE holds firm:

Some properly epic snowfall from Monday evening onwards possible particularly on the northern edge of the occlusion i.e. Dundee southwards:

Signal for 10-20 cm widely by midday Tuesday for said area away from the coast:

Showers likely to continue on into Wednesday night, particularly near the coast, on ESE winds:

As BUS says temperatures not likely to exceed 1-2C for many and with snow cover ice days remain a possibility:

GFS however still goes for the warm sector:

Longer term though still looks promising for inland eastern areas with uppers easily sub -10C from Tuesday midday onwards:

UKMO wants to disrupt the trough and keep the snow party going through into the weekend:

i know its a while away but that atlantic low has been modeled for a few runs now and this is where the GFS brings the front and if that came off it would be another big dump of snow

to add a bit of sensibility to this post i should add the ECM 0z wants to totally kill the front when it hits wales

Crazy run, stalls the front over us with the -8C line straddling the central belt before pivoting round and bringing in some mega cold again from the east.

[Buriedundersnow]

nice UKMO 12z 144h chart

[Buriedundersnow]

NAE holds firm:

Some properly epic snowfall from Monday evening onwards possible particularly on the northern edge of the occlusion i.e. Dundee southwards:

Signal for 10-20 cm widely by midday Tuesday for said area away from the coast:

Showers likely to continue on into Wednesday night, particularly near the coast, on ESE winds:

As BUS says temperatures not likely to exceed 1-2C for many and with snow cover ice days remain a possibility:

GFS however still goes for the warm sector:

Longer term though still looks promising for inland eastern areas with uppers easily sub -10C from Tuesday midday onwards:

UKMO wants to disrupt the trough and keep the snow party going through into the weekend:

Crazy run, stalls the front over us with the -8C line straddling the central belt before pivoting round and bringing in some mega cold again from the east.

yeah cracking run.

i must admit when the pub run watered things down a little lastnight it got me a little worried but todays output away from the end frames on the ECM have put that worry to rest for now

[Buriedundersnow]

LS the chart u posted from NAE showing 10-20cm looks great and there could be a possibility maybe when this is all done through tuesday one or two of us on here might be reporting that magical foot or more of level snow (fingers crossed)

[leeabz]

Another easterly that looks crap for Aberdeen... God I missed the northerlies lol

[Bullseye]

Jeez it's great to have Steve Murr in MT! He's saying 30-40cm of snow for Scotland and historic is he ramping? People also saying UKMO is epic for Scotland in the MT!! Really hope Glasgow gets something really good!

[doctormog]

Another easterly that looks crap for Aberdeen... God I missed the northerlies lol

You think so? It may be better to pass judgement in a few days IMO. Most easterlies are indeed rubbish but I suspect we may see at least a bit of snow from some time tomorrow (lunchtimeish) onwards.

Edited March 17, 2013 by doctormog

[Buriedundersnow]

Jeez it's great to have Steve Murr in MT! He's saying 30-40cm of snow for Scotland and historic is he ramping? People also saying UKMO is epic for Scotland in the MT!! Really hope Glasgow gets something really good!

30-40cm maybe might happen somewhere but not widely.

u will see some snow in glasgow but think its gonna be the same easterly story most snow will fall in the east.

[leeabz]

You think so? It may be better to pass judgement in a few days IMO. Most easterlies are indeed rubbish but I suspect we may see at least a bit of snow from some time tomorrow (lunchtimeish) onwards.

I hope am wrong, it does look cold enough for some snow on coast but if it was a northerly or even a north easterly id be happier. Its like earlier on in the year when it was gale force easterly ok it was more of se wind, the temps were to high due to wind but as soon as the winds dropped it was colder and we got snow so i think the winds being as strong as forecast is prob the reason the met office weather warnings don't cover the east coast.

But hey am def no expert lol

[doctormog]

I hope am wrong, it does look cold enough for some snow on coast but if it was a northerly or even a north easterly id be happier. Its like earlier on in the year when it was gale force easterly ok it was more of se wind, the temps were to high due to wind but as soon as the winds dropped it was colder and we got snow so i think the winds being as strong as forecast is prob the reason the met office weather warnings don't cover the east coast.

But hey am def no expert lol

One difference this time round (or two actually): the air source is colder than most of the previous easterlies this winter (albeit not all of them) and possibly even more importantly, the North Sea is at its coldest and indeed colder than average at the moment. I think snow will fall here in Aberdeen, how much settles and hangs around is another matter.

[lorenzo]

nice UKMO 12z 144h chart

That is a North sea snow machine of a chart.. !

[leeabz]

One difference this time round (or two actually): the air source is colder than most of the previous easterlies this winter (albeit not all of them) and possibly even more importantly, the North Sea is at its coldest and indeed colder than average at the moment. I think snow will fall here in Aberdeen, how much settles and hangs around is another matter.

Yeah true here's hoping.... If not its all your fault for getting my hopes up lol..only joking.

Cheers,

Lee

[Buriedundersnow]

That is a North sea snow machine of a chart.. !

yeah not half lets hope it verifys

[Northernlights]

Mostly overcast today after a frosty start a bit milder during the middle of the day at 5c but temperature now back to 2c.Almost no wind so feels OK outside.