Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

chionomaniac
 Share

Recommended Posts

-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

Now if that could just stay where it is until november/december then we could be well in....

Well in for a crap summer?! :p

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted (edited)

Well in for a crap summer?! blum.gif

yeah but every cloud has a silver lining, and lets face it most of us would endure a bad summer if it ment a big fat greenie high for winter..cold.gif

Edit: sorry ment most of us that like cold n snow...

Edited by bigsnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted (edited)

We looked for a GH all winter then it comes to march and its a very strong one. Which has no real cold effect.

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

What a bizarre post!!

What we look for is that we see northern blocking that is favourable to deliver cold to these shores. We have this to a perfect extent at T+48 that is set to deliver a once in a lifetime Spring cold pool over the UK ( granted it is not directly over Greenland - but pretty damn perfect in every other way) and yet you highlight a chart at T+168!!! As TEITS often says - if this doesn't float your boat then you need to get another hobby as the synoptics on offer are as good as you want to see whether it is spring or winter!!!

Edited by chionomaniac
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted (edited)

Whilst many discuss the far S it seems the E Midlands has been ignored for tomorrow with some heavy snow being predicted.

http://expert-images...030918_0818.gif

GFS less keen for my region with the snow further N.

Love to say the NAE is right but my gut instinct is telling me the main snow risk tomorrow will be further N.

! As TEITS often says - if this doesn't float your boat then you need to get another hobby as the synoptics on offer are as good as you want to see whether it is spring or winter!!!

Yes pretty much perfect cold synoptics and I couldn't draw anything better.

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

What a bizarre post!!

What we look for is that we see northern blocking that is favourable to deliver cold to these shores. We have this to a perfect extent at T+48 that is set to deliver a once in a lifetime Spring cold pool over the UK ( granted it is not directly over Greenland - but pretty damn perfect in every other way) and yet you highlight a chart at T+168!!! As TEITS often says - if this doesn't float your boat then you need to get another hobby as the synoptics on offer are as good as you want to see whether it is spring or winter!!!

Was just saying...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

Was just saying...

Fair enough - but it would have more credence if the intervening period wasn't so potential laden!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Right at the end of la la land the GFS says 'eh, give me another go at some blocking'

h500slp.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

One of those days when the fax is modified at day 4 with the britanny low. That feature sticks for 24 hours. If the fronts align in the right place, somewhere is going to get dumped.

Wonder where the little shortwave off ne scotland is headed and also how the fronts behind the little ridge will come in. Note the warm sector over scandi in some sub 510 air!!!

12z UKMO-GM at t+84 has now been modified to ECMWF solution. Snow effectively Bristol to Essex and anywhere south. More to follow if I get time later.

You're back on tv Monday Ian? Good timing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tom_f123 Explorer

tom_f123

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
  • Location: Sedgley/Dudley, West Midlands. 672ft/205m
Posted (edited)

18Z has temperatures recovering faster then previous run does it not? 7-8C for central areas by Thursday afternoon, compared to the 2's and 3's of the 12z.

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by tom_f123
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Low to SW is 5mb stronger at T+42 on GFS 18Z - that will lead to a slightly further north track and the precip further north - but so will the colder 850 temps be further north!

The mighty NAVGEM also has the low to our sw 5mb stronger than its 12z with its precip further north. NAE 18z has the low in a v similar position to GFS 18z but the low not as deep. Plenty more changes to come with this I think...
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

HIRLAM, not a model to be snubbed, keeps most the precip offshore of southern England on Monday, though keeps snow showers across E England from Northumberland down to Kent:

http://www.aemet.es/...pc2=sup&opc3=pr

Forecasters' nightmare come Sunday night through to Tuesday morning.

Edited by Nick F
Link to comment
Share on other sites
suxer Enthusiast

suxer

Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
Posted

HIRLAM, not a model to be snubbed, keeps most the precip offshore of southern England on Monday, though keeps snow showers across E England from Northumberland down to Kent:

http://www.aemet.es/...pc2=sup&opc3=pr

Forecasters' nightmare come Sunday night through to Tuesday morning.

HIRLAM, not a model to be snubbed, keeps most the precip offshore of southern England on Monday, though keeps snow showers across E England from Northumberland down to Kent:

http://www.aemet.es/...pc2=sup&opc3=pr

Forecasters' nightmare come Sunday night through to Tuesday morning.

Thanks for that nick lazy.gif some people thrive on this info
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

18z GFS ensembles have a notable shift north on that low at T60, punctuated by the control-

The net movement seems to be about 60-70 miles which is a good start- for the south coast you dont want much more otherwise your tugging milder air from the south!

The PPN for the control at 78-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-2-78.png?18

nearly reaching norfolk!

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Ahh speaking to Americans friends is fun apparently 20cm isn't that much?

Anyway lovely end to the pub run.

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Author
Posted

18z GFS ensembles have a notable shift north on that low at T60, punctuated by the control-

The net movement seems to be about 60-70 miles which is a good start- for the south coast you dont want much more otherwise your tugging milder air from the south!

The PPN for the control at 78-

http://modeles.meteo...s-0-2-78.png?18

nearly reaching norfolk!

S

Building the perfect channel low was never going to be easy and is fraught with danger. Let's hope that in a couple of days we have something to go down in weather history's diary and that he is putting up you tube videos of the preceding forecasts of this event in years to come!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

18z GFS ensembles have a notable shift north on that low at T60, punctuated by the control-

The net movement seems to be about 60-70 miles which is a good start- for the south coast you dont want much more otherwise your tugging milder air from the south!

The PPN for the control at 78-

http://modeles.meteo...s-0-2-78.png?18

nearly reaching norfolk!

S

There are 4 or 5 ensembles which get the precipitation as far N as Manchester. I certainly wouldn't be grumbling if that (admittedly minute) possibility came off (just to add a bit of balance lol)

Edited by CreweCold
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

69-574.GIF?08-18

Yum

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

What actually caught my eye was 2 fronts passing through.

48-574.GIF?08-18

Giving many some early snow before monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Now if that could just stay where it is until november/december then we could be well in....

Good thing is, if its deciding to reside there now, it should at least be moved in 3-4 months time to allow for some heat to perhaps build for summer with a Euro High instead !

Problem with last summer was the Greenie high in the wrong place at the wrong time !

P.S sorry if off topic slightly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Much better ensemble mean at 168 hrs. Does away with that surface high which was evident on the 12z suite

gens-21-1-168.png?18

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

There are 4 or 5 ensembles which get the precipitation as far N as Manchester. I certainly wouldn't be grumbling if that (admittedly minute) possibility came off (just to add a bit of balance lol)

Sounds like a great snow stealing plan CC, get the front up to Manchester and the proper convective zone across eastern Scotland and we'll be in businessrofl.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Sounds like a great snow stealing plan CC, get the front up to Manchester and the proper convective zone across eastern Scotland and we'll be in businessrofl.gif

If only!

Anyway, there was only 1 lone member getting the precipitation that far north on the 12z, now there's 4 or 5. It's a start!

:p

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Much better ensemble mean at 168 hrs. Does away with that surface high which was evident on the 12z suite

gens-21-1-168.png?18

I think that mean chart is very misleading scanning through the individual ensembles, they all pretty much go the Op route and cut off the cold feed with a developing low to the West. I think the short ensemble graph will show a quicker warm up tonight.

Edit.

Here is NW England, a couple of degrees less cold than recent ensemble means through the mid term.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=232&ext=1&y=46&run=18&runpara=0

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...