winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Dexter29]

How to draw a Met-Office snow risk map.

Step 1

Get the 2m temperatures

Step 2

Draw a ring around everywhere in UK with temps 2C or below,

Step 3

Get whoever's toddler is currently in the office to colour the picture in

Step 4

Get teenager to post to the web with strict instructions to use the word 'uncertain' in as many places as possible,

Clearly, and obviously, the people at the Met Office have access to children who can colour in better than I can with their £82m annual budget.

Love this. Going to re post in the my region. Hope you don't mind :-)

[fergieweather]

Love this. Going to re post in the my region. Hope you don't mind :-)

Am sure chief forecaster would happily give up his desk to you to try better when public and media scrutiny focuses on honest scientific assessment as opposed to web forum banter.

[MrSunshine]

At the stage looks like places south of the midlands are going to miss out on this event with the low taking a more northerly trajectory. Looking very good for places midlands northwards.

[NickR]

Love this. Going to re post in the my region. Hope you don't mind :-)

Very good... but not sure how it's related to the models. Is there a media discussion thread?

Am sure chief forecaster would happily give up his desk to you to try better when public and media scrutiny focuses on honest scientific assessment as opposed to web forum banter.

Sense of humour bypass???

Come on Ian!!

[fergieweather]

I'll later post the MOGREPS and EC snow progs valid when initial yellow was issued. I challenge anyone to have made more firm assessment based on dichotomy they offered re areal risk at the time.

[phil nw.]

Interesting to look at the ECM mean and UKMO Op around T72hrs both show the low centered around the south Midlands with the cold air just to it`s north.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Reem722.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm722.gif

Not that this will necessarily be the final detail but it shows that the GFS maybe on it`s own with the more northerly track at that time.

T96hrs ECM mean looks better for moving the cold further south with the low placed a little further SE at that time

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Reem962.gif

-depending on the pcptn left it could give more southern areas a covering as the rain turns to snow before the whole lot moves away.

[Manchester_Sunset]

Snow is the hardest type of precipitation to forecast. Not easy for any forecaster to get it spot on.

[NickR]

I'll later post the MOGREPS and EC snow progs valid when initial yellow was issued. I challenge anyone to have made more firm assessment based on dichotomy they offered re areal risk at the time.

Seriously, Ian, you're taking those posts far too seriously. It's just a bit of fun and banter.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Am sure chief forecaster would happily give up his desk to you to try better when public and media scrutiny focuses on honest scientific assessment as opposed to web forum banter.

Wow, somebody's upset there getting now snow this weekend Ha Ha! Sense of Humour been left at home this morning Ian!?

In all honesty the Met Office are clearly covering there backs and rightly so. It's so up in the air this morning that nobody really knows what is going to happen. A few miles shift here and there and it's all different. This could be a potent snow fall or rain / sleet for some. Nobody knows.

The NAE should be the favoured model to watch from late tonight / tomorrow.

[Manchester_Sunset]

Wow, somebody's upset there getting now snow this weekend Ha Ha! Sense of Humour been left at home this morning Ian!?

In all honesty the Met Office are clearly covering there backs and rightly so. It's so up in the air this morning that nobody really knows what is going to happen. A few miles shift here and there and it's all different. This could be a potent snow fall or rain / sleet for some. Nobody knows.

The NAE should be the favoured model to watch from late tonight / tomorrow.

Getting frustrated with how hard snow is to forecast!

[Paul Sherman]

I'll later post the MOGREPS and EC snow progs valid when initial yellow was issued. I challenge anyone to have made more firm assessment based on dichotomy they offered re areal risk at the time.

Can I ask Ian, what has changed the Meto Stance re the warnings maps changing and also Mondays risk changing, have they new data on how the (Not yet formed LP) is going to behave ?? Thought most consensus was for it too pull away South or Southeastwards ?? This surely cannot happen if what looks like the NE Coasts from the Wash Northwards will be at risk from showers Monday etc ?

[Summer Sun]

Looking likely that the Midlands, North wales and parts of southern Northern England could see the worst conditions on Sunday with 10cm or more at lower levels and upto 20cm over 300m

GFS seems to be close to the mark this morning

Snow totals by 18:00 Sunday

00:00 Monday morning

06:00 Monday morning

And 18:00 Monday

Cuurent suggestions seem to be the midlands north will see the heaviest falls on Sunday when the system stalls and cold air feeds in to the frontal system

[Manchester_Sunset]

Interesting - derektheweather just tweeted me this

[johnholmes]

Snow is the hardest type of precipitation to forecast. Not easy for any forecaster to get it spot on.

I often quote that if we take in summer that there is one variable to get right then to predict snow there are another 7 or 8 that need to be in place.

Yes it is a very very complex thing to predict in the UK, so much more simple in the Alps for example.

[NickR]

Interesting - derektheweather just tweeted me this

The whole run is readily available for those charts on weatheroutline.co.uk (expert, GFS, ppn type)

[VillagePlank]

Am sure chief forecaster would happily give up his desk to you to try better when public and media scrutiny focuses on honest scientific assessment as opposed to web forum banter.

I suspect the Chief Forecaster would find it amusing that the one-in-a-million chance that the snow-risk matches the 2m temp charts has actually occured.

It was a joke, nothing more. I realise that satire is the lowest form of humour ...

Edited February 8, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Interesting - derektheweather just tweeted me this

Eddie the Eagle just tweeted me this

Not as interesting

Edited February 8, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[fergieweather]

Seriously, Ian, you're taking those posts far too seriously. It's just a bit of fun and banter.

I see funny side!! Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

[TEITS]

Latest Met O updates make no sense to me whatsoever.

The trend over many days now has been for the LP to sink S. So common sense tells you that the snow risk on Sunday would extend S not N during Monday as indicated by the Met O. This isn't rocket science because as the LP pulls S you are pulling in colder temps on the N flank of the LP system.

Anyways doesn't matter because im still expecting the correction SW because we are now entering the period when this will occur. I have lost count over the years how the models would indicate precip for my location in these slider LP situations and the reality was a correction that far SW only the extreme S/SW witnessed any precip.

The correction SW won't prevent the Midlands or S parts of N England seeing snow but if I lived in the far N of N England and Scotland I wouldn't be getting excited just yet.

Edited February 8, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I see funny side!! Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

How about chimps then!!! only joking, massive respect to the meto guys and girls (and children)

[NickR]

A. I see funny side!!

B. Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

B somewhat undermines the claim found in A.

Sorry, mate, but it's true. Lighten up.

Edited February 8, 2013 by NickR

[NickR]

Latest Met O updates make no sense to me whatsoever.

The trend over many days now has been for the LP to sink S. So common sense tells you that the snow risk on Sunday would extend S not N during Monday as indicated by the Met O. This isn't rocket science because as the LP pulls S you are pulling in colder temps on the N flank of the LP system.

Anyways doesn't matter because im still expecting the correction SW because we are now entering the period when this will occur. I have lost count over the years how the models would indicate precip for my location in these slider LP situations and the reality was a correction that far SW only the extreme S/SW witnessed any precip.

The correction SW won't prevent the Midlands or S parts of N England seeing snow but if I lived in the far N of N England and Scotland I wouldn't be getting excited just yet.

Disagree... even if the system is further south we stand to get some very beefy convection on MOn/Tues... and convective snow almost always delivers more here at least than frontal.

[legritter]

Still 48/ 60hrs till late sunday .we all know this is a very hard one to call .if this system keeps further west than is currently forecast and that was called when some of us were asleep we could be looking at a significant event across centrall and western parts .as it currently stands further east and north could get hammered . it could be a mid dle of the road event and plenty of us catching a rain to snow event ,especially if the low that eventually forms becomes a slow moving feature as pressure rises across scandy .at this stage im sure the MET OFFICE are doing their upmost to evaluate things .things will change this evening and tomorrow .this system as got the uk on its HIT list but the sweet spots still being cooked up by Mother nature .i thank IAN Furgusson for all of his shared info ,even if its sometimes clinical to us snow worshipers ,including myself .as for current charts i think we could see some good possibilitys this coming week ,some of us will have to be patient ,

[TEITS]

Disagree... even if the system is further south we stand to get some very beefy convection on MOn/Tues... and convective snow almost always delivers more here at least than frontal.

Im not referring to the convective snowfall that will occur later. Purely just focusing on the frontal snowfall via the LP.

If members flick between +72 & +96 on the ECM/UKMO they will see why im puzzled. I actually see the complete reverse with snow more likely during Mon than Sunday with this occuring during Sunday night into the early hrs of Monday morning.

[Coast]

Whilst realising how difficult this is to forecast and also that model output is still variable and not necessarily what everyone wants as an outcome, could we please still try and stick to the discussion in the topic title as there are a myriad of other places to discuss all the other stuff that seem to be entering this thread.

Additionally, as one of the key public sources of technical analysis for weather models on the web in the UK, we do have a lot of people viewing this thread who would like to try and understand your individual thoughts on what is showing and why - not just a one liner screaming upgrade or downgrade.

Cheers!