South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[Dorsetbred]

You did witness some very early morning flakes though Mull.

Yep I did too, cornflakes

[Beast of Plympton]

I dared to post in there for the very first time and can report I have survived unscathed. Also of worthy note was the UKMO T144 chart! Potentially chilly to say the least

Brave... We shall now place you in government protection as you have returned with valueable information!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS is rubbish for us on the Weekends event ... 3 runs in a row that shows heavy rain for us and only the Far East of England getting any Snow, Let's hope the ECM keeps it's Cold uppers across the whole country .

[pinkertonsurly]

4.2/DP0.0 in Winchester. Sunny most of the day.

I do enjoy those posts by the Dutch weatherman on the mad thread.

[gottolovethisweather]

Damn you Dew points and WB Temps, please drop. That incoming precipitation may have even changed to SNOW, had it not been for you.

Nevertheless, I will be watching my lamp-posts over the coming hours, as you never know.

[AWD]

GFS is rubbish for us on the Weekends event ... 3 runs in a row that shows heavy rain for us and only the Far East of England getting any Snow, Let's hope the ECM keeps it's Cold uppers across the whole country .

The GFS always has been rubbish for us. Thankfully the GFS isn't having the best of times currently so I wouldn't be overly worried by what it shows.

UKMO could be better at 120 for us. But 144 is good. It all depends on how much mixed out air the UKMO brings as the shortwave dives S/SE.

Would like to see the shortwave go south further SW on subsequent runs.

To complex to look into much detail though currently. Theres a lot more than just 850hpa temps that need looking at here!

All in all, messy sypnotics! A bit of everything possible and not easy to forecast!

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS is rubbish for us on the Weekends event ... 3 runs in a row that shows heavy rain for us and only the Far East of England getting any Snow, Let's hope the ECM keeps it's Cold uppers across the whole country .

Believe me, the GFS has been toying with the idea of pushing the colder air Westwards for a few runs now. Things may well come in our favour, perhaps for part of the region more especially, in the end. The GFS has always defaulted to the Atlantic flow ahead of other options throughout its history, so I would not read too much into its weekend evolution right now.

Edited February 5, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Bumpkin]

We seemed to be in a bit of a precipitation hotspot today. A couple of cracking hail showers that left a white covering. Everything was white for a few hours before finally melting. Also had graupel and sleety/snow. According to my husband the hail this morning was on the soft side and more like snow so he christened it 'snail'. It was actually hail but its easier to humour him.

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp 5.8c dew point 2.1c wind westerly with strong gusts.

[Nights King]

Just had a shower of sleet move through. I'm guessing the wbfl is too high now for the heavier pulse making its way towards us?

[snowmadchrisuk]

The GFS always has been rubbish for us. Thankfully the GFS isn't having the best of times currently so I wouldn't be overly worried by what it shows.

UKMO could be better at 120 for us. But 144 is good. It all depends on how much mixed out air the UKMO brings as the shortwave dives S/SE.

Would like to see the shortwave go south further SW on subsequent runs.

To complex to look into much detail though currently. Theres a lot more than just 850hpa temps that need looking at here!

All in all, messy sypnotics! A bit of everything possible and not easy to forecast!

The UKMO at +120 would have a massive warm sector as the core of the low is over the country .. If we can see this take a more Westerly route into the Channel we would be quids in , but at the risk of it going to far South and we miss the precipitation , but it would also really help that +144 chart ... I think though we may have to expect rain from the weekends events but hope it then set's something up for long term Cold .. I think at +144 That SW would fill and move North allowing height's to build further West , but it will be something to keep an eye on in future runs.

[Kiwi]

Bizarre here, I'm just waiting for the hose pipe ban! No rain, snow or anything vaguely damp all day, despite watching precipitation on the radar pass to my north, south, east and west!

Keeping my fingers crossed that the shield fails on Sunday.

Current Temp 3.4c DP -0.6c

[gottolovethisweather]

Just had a shower of sleet move through. I'm guessing the wbfl is too high now for the heavier pulse making its way towards us?

Yes, I'm afraid so but at least you had a few snowflakes at sleepy o'clock. I have my eye on the NMM chart which showed some patchy SNOW potential trundling down from the North around 8 to 10am tomorrow morning. It was backed up by the Fax Charts too so I guess there is a chance, more especially towards Central and Southern/South Eastern parts of the region.

Edited February 5, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[snowmadchrisuk]

One thing I hadn't noticed , the GFS , and now the NAE is suggesting some heavy PPN on Thursday ... Moving Eastwards so the East of our region could see some Snow from that.

[snowmadchrisuk]

oh my god , just read weather onlines forecast for today .... I have lost all confidence in that website I really have ..

Tuesday

Rain and strong winds sweeping northwards through Ireland, Wales and England today. The rain is going to be heavy at times in the south and west with a risk of flooding across Wales and Ireland as well as southwest England. Winds could be reaching severe gale force at times, with gusts of 60mph on western coasts. Drier for northern England and Scotlajnd at first, but then the cloud and rain reaching here by the afternoon. Highs at a mild 14C in southern England, 10C in northern Scotland.

[chris55]

Sundays the day to watch out for!!

ECM once again with lots of the white stuff around, looking into to much detail is pointless at this range, but the broad pattern is excellent for us lot.

[snowmadchrisuk]

If we didn't get Snow on the Sunday , we would by Monday on current charts ..., Must admit it is starting to look a little better for us tonight

[chris55]

Yes, with the cold air wrapping back round the Low it could be win win for some in the region!

[Bristawl Si]

Ian mentioned poss snow for Sunday/Monday just now on Points West - one they're keeping an eye on.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Bristle boy

[AWD]

Sundays the day to watch out for!!

ECM once again with lots of the white stuff around, looking into to much detail is pointless at this range, but the broad pattern is excellent for us lot.

Yep, ECM better for northern and eastern parts of our region especially. Colder upper air temps further west;

Meaning this could fall as snow;

Definetly something to Keep an eye on now. A little SWestward movement from the UKMO would be nice, but at 120/144 hours away, detail will chop and change still. Hopefully for the better on future runs!

Could we see all snow or rain - snow is the question I think?

Edited February 5, 2013 by AWD

[chris55]

ECM ppn charts shows Westcountry right under the stall/pivot of the front, obviously at this range and with just one operational run these charts are not to much use, but they highlight the risks.

[cornish snow]

If we didn't get Snow on the Sunday , we would by Monday on current charts ..., Must admit it is starting to look a little better for us tonight

I wonder if us might include cornwall aswell.

LOL only joking.

Wife +eldest son coming back from blackpool sunday night,might be intresting

[chris55]

Yep, ECM better for northern and eastern parts of our region especially. Colder upper air temps further west;

Meaning this could fall as snow;

Definetly something to Keenan eye on now. A little SWestward movement from the UKMO would be nice, but at 120/144 hours away, detail will chop and change still. Hopefully for the better on future runs!

Could we see all snow or rain - snow is the question I think?

AWD, with the south east flow do you think the -5 line be crucial for snowfall? Or could we anticipate say -2-3c?

[Brad lough]

Hi just to add to what cornish snow said as someone who doesn't really understand the charts would Cornwall miss out again

[cerneman]

Seabirds affected by contamination are still appearing on shorelines of channel coast, Over 300 birds are recovering at West Hatch rescue centre in Somerset. Contaminate still not fully identified, but is a refined mineral oil, Some birds been found Netherland coast and taken to Ostend for cleaning,

Map showing locations birds found todate