Spring Weather Chat

[summer blizzard]

You can get bottle conditioned ale yes but its totally unsuitable for walking around in and much be carefully poured to avoid disturbing the sediment. I've never had a bottled beer taste as good as a good proper pint.

Lager is less fussy true (although cans inflict a metallic taste onto the beer that bottles don't) and of course you can easily enjoy it (and ale too) walking around - but pubs can be lovely little social places and provide an atmosphere that a 6 pack from Tesco just doesn't.

I know a pub which just gets cans from Tesco.

[Bottesford]

Sounds like a classy joint!

[March Blizzard]

The record low maximum for March in the UK is just -4.4C, in Wales. Scotland's is -3.9C and England's is -3.3C. Perhaps there is a chance one of these will go sometime next week, particularly Monday.

[hillbilly]

Its looks like a lot of people have been fooled into thinking spring has arrived after yesterdays mild sunny day and temps in the mid and low teens. I think it will be a shock to some when the cold spell arrives. I for one want some warmth now, I know its only early March but I have a feeling this cold will be protracted and become tedious . Unlike last year where the spring was warm and the 'good' weather seemed to peak early, this year is very different, lets hope by late spring temperatures climb to above average for the whole of the summer season to redresss the persistant run of below average months. However , I feel this summer will be a cool one with temps in the high and mid teens a commom theme rather in the low 20's. It seems the warmies have had their fun in the ninties and early 2000's . Its the coldies turn now as the winters do seem to be getting colder and longer but the summers are lacking big heatwaves to compensate.

my gran used to say 'dont batter a clout till may is out'.................

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think it's as simple as "the coldies having their way" because while we've had more in the way of cold winters and cool summers, springs and autumns have generally been warm. 2011 was a particularly stark example, when the spring was widely the warmest since records began (assisted by a phenomenally warm April) and the autumn was widely the second-warmest, beaten only by 2006. Most parts of lowland England failed even to register sleet from March-November 2011 inclusive, while the most recent widespread occurrence of lying snow in March was way back in Easter 2008.

I think as far as winter and spring goes recent years have been kindest to those who like a snowy winter followed by a warm dry sunny and snowless spring, and thus if we get a wintry March it will provide a shock to the system for those after an early spring. One could also argue the same for a cool cloudy wet summer followed by a consistently warm autumn, but there aren't as many takers for that combination. But while the warming trend in the UK climate appears to have been put on hold since around 2007, 2011 was a year of near record-breaking warmth over much of the UK, 2009 was pretty warm, and the only significantly colder-than-average year was 2010.

Edited March 7, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Guest pjl20101]

Exactly Ian and I think that the low solar output is to blame. The temperature has very much stagnated in this country down to meridional flow and the melting ice caps. It all results in jetstream and gulf stream sluggishness so it can't facilitate warmth as well as it could do.

[Bottesford]

Overall things might have been warmer but like you say its fallen in spring or autumn when the effect is less pronounced i.e. being 12c in November compared to an average of 8-9c doesn't really register to most people as notable compared to 26-28c in July does.

To most folks its felt like a chilly few years because all the summers have been wet or cloudy or cool - or any combination of the three.

[March Blizzard]

I don't think it's as simple as "the coldies having their way" because while we've had more in the way of cold winters and cool summers, springs and autumns have generally been warm. 2011 was a particularly stark example, when the spring was widely the warmest since records began (assisted by a phenomenally warm April) and the autumn was widely the second-warmest, beaten only by 2006. Most parts of lowland England failed even to register sleet from March-November 2011 inclusive, while the most recent widespread occurrence of lying snow in March was way back in Easter 2008.

I think as far as winter and spring goes recent years have been kindest to those who like a snowy winter followed by a warm dry sunny and snowless spring, and thus if we get a wintry March it will provide a shock to the system for those after an early spring. One could also argue the same for a cool cloudy wet summer followed by a consistently warm autumn, but there aren't as many takers for that combination. But while the warming trend in the UK climate appears to have been put on hold since around 2007, 2011 was a year of near record-breaking warmth over much of the UK, 2009 was pretty warm, and the only significantly colder-than-average year was 2010.

The upcoming cold spell/snap, to me, is less about simply wintry weather and more about wintry weather in March. On the whole, March has been extremely benign for about 2 decades so the potential for next week stands out as something special. In the 1980's we had 5 sub 5C Marches, since then we have only had i think 2, it's because of this I find it hard to believe some weather enthusiasts would like to "pass" on the cold given the relative rarity of it for so long for the month in question. Surely they can grin and bear it for a week (if it lasts that long) or at least not begrudge those who want it. I dislike terms such as "warmies" and "coldies" because many of us have different preferences depending on the time of year or even our mood, i don't think many are permenently in just one "camp". However, in this instance, the "warmies/mildies" (whatever...) should lower their expectations for warmth to the same extent "coldies" should for cold. We're at a time of year when both can happen yet we're more than likely to land somewhere in the middle, or chop and change until warmth becomes more likely and takes over. For now, cold/cool weather is the default. If you see appreciable warmth, count yourself lucky.

[IanR]

I don't think it's as simple as "the coldies having their way" because while we've had more in the way of cold winters and cool summers, springs and autumns have generally been warm. 2011 was a particularly stark example, when the spring was widely the warmest since records began (assisted by a phenomenally warm April) and the autumn was widely the second-warmest, beaten only by 2006. Most parts of lowland England failed even to register sleet from March-November 2011 inclusive, while the most recent widespread occurrence of lying snow in March was way back in Easter 2008.

I think as far as winter and spring goes recent years have been kindest to those who like a snowy winter followed by a warm dry sunny and snowless spring, and thus if we get a wintry March it will provide a shock to the system for those after an early spring. One could also argue the same for a cool cloudy wet summer followed by a consistently warm autumn, but there aren't as many takers for that combination. But while the warming trend in the UK climate appears to have been put on hold since around 2007, 2011 was a year of near record-breaking warmth over much of the UK, 2009 was pretty warm, and the only significantly colder-than-average year was 2010.

TBH I am probably basing that post on past experience and expectations rather than any scientific proof, I do think fans of hot weather have been short changed over the last several years, and people who like cold have been getting their way more so, but still with big dissapiontments , the fact that 2011 was a one of the warmest years is a bit of a red herring for fans of heat,as this, as you know was due to many cloudy mild nights during late autumn and winter, maximum summer temps were still lame.

[Thundery wintry showers]

TBH I am probably basing that post on past experience and expectations rather than any scientific proof, I do think fans of hot weather have been short changed over the last several years, and people who like cold have been getting their way more so, but still with big dissapiontments , the fact that 2011 was a one of the warmest years is a bit of a red herring for fans of heat,as this, as you know was due to many cloudy mild nights during late autumn and winter, maximum summer temps were still lame.

I think the main problem has been along the lines of what Bottesford said- fans of hot weather have been short-changed because spells of significantly above-average temperatures accompanied by bright sunshine have been concentrated during March, April, September and/or October in recent years, but have largely avoided the period May to August, which is when they bring most hot-weather fans the most benefit (e.g. facilitating continental-style outdoor activities, and coinciding with lengthy hours of daylight).

The equivalent would be snow fans feeling short-changed if we had a lot of northerlies during September, October, April and May but persistent south-westerlies from December to March inclusive. I'm quite a big fan of notable out-of-season events, but I do identify with the frustration that arises when we only seem to get them out-of-season, and the time of year when we would normally benefit most from them features a marked absence of them.

[Guest pjl20101]

Think one of the problems ATM is the QBO change and you would think that would promote a positive arctic oscillation but it seems to be losing the argument. The PDO is supposed to be trending towards positive or neutral territory and that could be a saving grace for this spring well into the summer. We are missing Alex's contributions on here currently as he gives very insightful comments which I have a lot of respect for.

[Guest pjl20101]

By the way folks what forecast did piers Corbyn issue out? As he seems as though he can't be wrong yet his track record in actual fact is very poor and worse than a lot of forecasting outlets and it makes me laugh that he doesn't explain what goes wrong with his forecasts. Last spring he forecast a very cold may and it was an epic fail because temperatures were in actual fact slightly above average.

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh absolutely nothing as long as the general noise/anti-social behaviour involved with them in inner city and urban areas doesn't affect me.

They're very rarely gentile or high brow experiences away from the leafy suburb or country areas IMO. They've become nothing more than an extension of binge drinking culture in some areas.

I know you dont like summer which I think affects your judgement here but as a family, we enjoy having BBQ's and I will cook, a couple of chilled drinks, we will then sit on the hammock/swing and light the chimnea and perhaps doze off as the sun sets and its still warm. My idea of perfection, not hell! In fact, I cant wait for the opportunity to come round again!

[Alex]

Think one of the problems ATM is the QBO change and you would think that would promote a positive arctic oscillation but it seems to be losing the argument. The PDO is supposed to be trending towards positive or neutral territory and that could be a saving grace for this spring well into the summer. We are missing Alex's contributions on here currently as he gives very insightful comments which I have a lot of respect for.

Thanks pjl, I assume you mean me?

I can answer the question above anyway; alot of recent springs ie 2011, 2010, 2007 etc have been characterised by the opposite of what we have now so low angular momentum, an easterly based QBO, negative PDO etc. However we currently have a developing westerly based QBO, neutral PDO and strong angular momentum- along with an active MJO phases 6-7-8 this spells blocking in some form but not in the right place for warmth as we are about to find out.

I think if we keep these characteristics into early summer then we will look back at Spring as a mixed bag but this summer will be greatly improved!

[Summer Sun]

Snow warnings issued by the met office for the weekend and Monday

Saturday

Issued at - 08 Mar 2013, 11:33

Valid from - 09 Mar 2013, 03:00

Valid to - 09 Mar 2013, 21:00

Rain is expected to turn to snow on Saturday, more particularly on high ground but with an increasing risk at lower levels. 5 cm or so could accumulate above 200 m in the Pennines, whilst ice forming on power lines in strong winds poses a threat of local power cuts. Ice on roads and pavements will also be a risk, especially in the north of the region. At low levels the main risk of snow is later in the day, and a lot of falling snow will melt on the ground, though some accumulations of a few cm here could not be ruled out.

Issued at - 08 Mar 2013, 11:55

Valid from - 08 Mar 2013, 16:00

Valid to - 09 Mar 2013, 06:00

Outbreaks of snow will affect higher ground in parts of East and Northeast Scotland through Friday afternoon and evening, lasting into the early hours of Saturday morning. Most of the snow will fall on ground above 400 m where 10 - 20 cm are possible, though as the snow level lowers during Friday evening and night, 5 - 10 cm may accumulate down to 300 m. Slight falls may settle to lower levels overnight before it dies out. The public should be aware that travel disruption is possible especially on the highest roads. In addition strong easterly winds combined with wet snow may cause power cable icing.

Issued at - 08 Mar 2013, 11:50

Valid from - 10 Mar 2013, 20:00

Valid to - 11 Mar 2013, 21:00

A spell of sleet and snow is expected, starting on Sunday evening in SW England, and affecting southern England more widely on Sunday night and Monday morning. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel. Accumulations of 3 - 5 cm could occur quite widely over southern counties, and the public are advised to be aware of this wintry hazard.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1362787200&regionName=uk

[Summer Sun]

Thanks pjl, I assume you mean me?

I can answer the question above anyway; alot of recent springs ie 2011, 2010, 2007 etc have been characterised by the opposite of what we have now so low angular momentum, an easterly based QBO, negative PDO etc. However we currently have a developing westerly based QBO, neutral PDO and strong angular momentum- along with an active MJO phases 6-7-8 this spells blocking in some form but not in the right place for warmth as we are about to find out.

I think if we keep these characteristics into early summer then we will look back at Spring as a mixed bag but this summer will be greatly improved!

Thanks I'll take a mixed spring if we can get a proper summer

[West Sussex Kate]

looking for some warm spring sunshine....

[Milhouse]

looking for some warm spring sunshine....

Me too. The garden has all the indications of early Spring with some colour starting to burst out. But apart from that it could still be January its that cold.

[Summer Sun]

Tulips are pushing through now along with the daffs just need to warmth and sunshine now

[Eugene]

Apart from tuesday which was wonderfully spring like and sunny its been absolutely horrendous until now with very murky conditions and persistent light rainfall and not feeling that mild without no sun at all and all from very mild air from the south showing the mildies mild atlantic air is no good for sunny spring like weather, funny enough the cold they hate so much will bring some lovely sunshine later this week and it will feel more springlike than much milder uppers of late last week yet they still hunt for those mild moist SW'lys

[Bottesford]

What about last weekend which was both mild and extremely sunny? That came off a southerly sourced air stream. What about the easterly before it that was persistent light rainfall, no sun and raw cold all the time? Eugene - it isn't as simple as "cold = sunny; mild = cloudy" any more than it is the other way round.

I could just as easily argue that all these folk who pine for easterlies are fools since mostly they are so cloudy. But of course I know they're after weather like today in the same way many of us are looking to the south to bring us some spring warmth.

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps for March have updated today for April to June

850hpa temperature has a 40% chance of been above normal and 20% chance for below normal

Precipitation has a 40% chance of been below normal for the same period

Early days yet but its looking good for a warm summer a 40% and for some in the north a 60% chance of above normal temperatures!

[UV-RAY]

How ironic that spring has brought the lowest daytime temp and the snowiest weather IMBY, it almost makes up for the shocker of a winter proceeding it.

The met office probability maps for March have updated today for April to June

850hpa temperature has a 40% chance of been above normal and 20% chance for below normal

Precipitation has a 40% chance of been below normal for the same period

Early days yet but its looking good for a warm summer a 40% and for some in the north a 60% chance of above normal temperatures!

Lets hope they are more accurate than they were for the past winter Gavin, they was showing us being in the freezer right up to late November then switched dramatically. Edited March 11, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SnowObsessor90]

In terms of Spring/summer like weather is possible that we could end being stuck in rut so to speak like year? or are longer term signals such as the QBO etc still looking more favourable?

[SP1986]

If the GFS turns out, then surely March would come in as the coldest on record by quite a distance? It's quite alarming actually just how cold the model is suggesting March will be.. never seen anything like it!

I just do not buy the warm summer scenario at all though, my own opinion is that the summer will be as wet and cold as any we've seen in the past 5 years.

Edited March 11, 2013 by SP1986