South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[MR EXTREMES]

nope its soooo going to miss us....... just watched spotlight

i dont agree at all anything that comes in from the west is likely to hit cornwall i cant see it missing cornwall then running up through the channel then north again not because rude either would be a rather strange thing for a weather system to do.

[TimMB]

It is ironic how I can get such a warm feeling in light of the very cold outlook.

Edited January 17, 2013 by TimMB

[MR EXTREMES]

Well that was disappointing

yes i must admit shows a rather upsetting snow to rain here on the southcoast oh well no 09/10 event this time grrrr.

[Lynxus]

Temp 2.6c .. Going down again now.

Phew..

[Duane S.]

Soooo much disappointment for something that has even started yet!!! Baffling yet perhaps unsurprising.

As I posted yesterday they would have to, the METO have published a (very) revised snow depth chart and (not their fault) it will likely change again. Nothing is nailed on yet in terms of the details. Just be thankful we all have a chance of some snow, some places are more likely than others obviously, but nowhere is immune to eleventh hour upgrades.

Weymouth seafront is exposed to SE winds so, rain sleet or snow, it is going to feel mightly raw for those there tomorrow!

[MR EXTREMES]

not many people from portsmouth and the isle of white in here so goes to show really they feel the same pretty poor event for us hope it slips futher south abit so we can drag really cold uppers into the channel to keep it as snow.

[gottolovethisweather]

Heres some interesting analysis based on yesterdays 12z model suites, courtesy of Old Met Man.

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Some very interesting days ahead!

However, a forecaster's nightmare for sure, as they agonise over the eastward extent of snow for Friday, and indeed beyond.

I said the other day that I thought the overall circulation pattern looked anomalous and there are features at 500mb that do, I think, favour a rather longer spell of cold that looked likely earlier in the week.

The most interesting feature I think is the building ridge heading up the Norwegian Sea, helping to solidify the surface HP, together with the amplifying upper trough extending further S into the Mediterranean. It has taken a while for the models to come into reasonable agreement that approaching fronts will occlude out or for triple-point LPs will form and slip away SE as that formation gradually developed.

The real dilemma lies in deciding how far E this process will happen, which quite unusually is causing the Met Office to be ambivalent only 48 hours out from the event. At 500mb, because of the above configuration, there is much more of a NW/SE component to the flow over the whole UK rather than a W/E one, at least for the next few days, so looking at the latest 12Z FAX charts, I'd say the placement of the frontal boundary for Friday's system looks pretty reasonable.

Beyond that, the uncertainty increases considerably. The strong jet out of the US/Canada is not showing much sign yet of propagating E as the GFS has been saying for some days and my feeling at this stage is that it will gradually do this but at a more southerly latitude. There have been strong hints in the GFS for more decisive pressure rises building further W to the N of us in the mid- to long-term, although today's 12Z has once again reverted to zonality as it so often does. The 500mb flow gives me the impression that heights will build significantly further W across Iceland and Greenland bringing about these pressure rises.

So, I think we face some very interesting conditions, perhaps a more vigorous LP early next week may warm things up slowly for a day or so but then rising pressure will bring back colder air once again as next week goes on. We have ideal conditions for some significant snow Friday - several very cold days preceding it so the ground pretty well frozen - that together with a slowing frontal system could well dump a fair amount of snow. Not to sure how coastal areas such as where I am will fare. I would have preferred a more SW approach than a W one as a wind off the sea could turn it all to rain.

Nevertheless, I am becoming convinced that we are going to see model output stretching the cold spell out longer as time goes by.

It's all going to be really interesting to watch!

[Bristawl Si]

This evening?

No - stretching into tomorrow evening.

BTL right on the edge of the evening prognosis. But our region neighbours North and East (and SE i.e. Dorset), more likely into tomorrow evening.

[jessandjon]

Icy drizzly stuff on way to the shops!! Very cold wind chill 1.5 hours until things are shifted a tad to the west again!!!!!

[offerman]

Its raining here in Frome. Not snow or sleet just rain, not heavy. I think it`ll change to snow though as winds swing S.E ahead of the main frontal system coming in.

[textmum]

Temp 2.6c .. Going down again now.

Phew..

The outside thermometer on our kitchen window says 0C

[GazzzaV6]

More or less certain now that Christchurch/Poole/Bournemouth area will see plenty of snow tomorrow. Cold air is going to kick in soon.

Sounds good. Charts say that but forecast seems to say rain and sleet too!

[SupaSnowy]

not many people from portsmouth and the isle of white in here so goes to show really they feel the same pretty poor event for us hope it slips futher south abit so we can drag really cold uppers into the channel to keep it as snow.

I think we will have a bit of snow at least. I not sure about Portsmouth tho, it's always that little bit warmer there it seems then just down the coast to Fareham. We will see if it turns to rain, it's been very very light snow during the day today. But SunnySouth Coast said its been very light rain in southsea.

Amazing how just little things can change just up the road. My guess is snow and maybe the back end turning to light rain but I reckon we might just be east enough to keep it as snow.

I'll Remember this post and that's see what happens tomorrow.

[gottolovethisweather]

And here's another entertaining read, courtesy of TWS from the technical model discussion thread.

It simply shows, tonight is event one, tomorrow and tomorrow night is event two etc. etc.

If at first you don't get snow, there's further chances down the line.

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Copied from the main model thread:

Certainly some classic snowy synoptics showing up on tonight's model outputs with Atlantic weather systems having a real struggle making progress against a Scandinavian blocking high which is forecast to increasingly ridge across to the north of the UK. Many parts of the country are thus in with a major shot at frontal snow while the easterly component to the wind direction should bring a fair number of snow showers to the east of high ground to the north of the fronts. Chances are some areas, most likely the western half of Scotland and the far south-west, will miss out, but the majority of the country should get at least some lying snow by the end of the weekend.

As others have noted the models are increasingly placing the main frontal belts further south and west as we get nearer the time- this means that the chance of frontal snow over the north and east of England is diminishing, but this does also mean increased chance of those same areas getting a significant supply of convective snowfalls off the North Sea, while the chance of snowfalls penetrating to low ground over much of Wales and south-west England is increasing with each run. At present a belt extending from Merseyside SSE-wards to central southern England appears to be in the firing line on Friday.

There is no definite end in sight for this cold spell- the Atlantic will probably get in eventually but it looks unlikely to happen before the middle of next week now, at least away from the south-west. I think it is unwise for snow lovers to worry too much about any breakdown as we have a lot of cold and potentially snowy weather to get through before then, and the UKMO and ECMWF both keep the UK in the freezer beyond then.

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[124alex]

Anyone know when the cold uppers back west again? Nae highlights my concern. Nae needs to be further west or the snow be pointless for most south of shepton mallet.

Updated snow depth map for Friday. See how much snow is expected to settle in your area: pic.twitter.com/VRmN5CGW

— Met Office (@metoffice)

January 17, 2013

think your find lots of snow!

[coxxy22]

I think we will have a bit of snow at least. I not sure about Portsmouth tho, it's always that little bit warmer there it seems then just down the coast to Fareham. We will see if it turns to rain, it's been very very light snow during the day today. But SunnySouth Coast said its been very light rain in southsea.

Amazing how just little things can change just up the road. My guess is snow and maybe the back end turning to light rain but I reckon we might just be east enough to keep it as snow.

I'll Remember this post and that's see what happens tomorrow.

im in southsea and all i have seen was a little flurry !!! ive seen no rain today !!

[kent]

all i can say is im dissapointed with the lack of faith for us dorset boys! i can FEEEL that there will be snow! lots of it!

Hi , wish I could could share your optimism but it seems to me that that it just doesnt feel or wont be cold enough here for any prolonged snow. Ive been down this same path so often and for so many disappointments over the years my faith in every forecast concerning snow has diminished considerably. I sincerely hope it materialises, and its not just me getting old and gnarled. Fingers crossed, and as ever remain blindly hopeful.

[gottolovethisweather]

Fantastic stuff, I enjoyed the read. Most enlightening.

No problem.

This goes to everyone, it is best to not read too much into simply the next 24 hours as longer-term, things could potentially get much interesting, if not rather worrying for some.

[SupaSnowy]

im in southsea and all i have seen was a little flurry !!! ive seen no rain today !!

Yeah same here little flurrys this afternoon. Maybe I saw it wrong I'm sure he said he had very very light rain in southsea.

[BristolBlizzard]

Hopefully my garden will look like this again tomorrow

Can anyone guesstimate how much snow that is?

Edited January 17, 2013 by BristolBlizzard

[coxxy22]

the weather in portsmouth can be very localised though lol my son phoned me from school this morning saying it was snowing but it had already stopped where i was only about 3-4 miles away lol

[iowpompeylee]

All snow for us all.even the chap at the Isle of Wight weather centre has changed his mind and forecasting at least 5cm for us..happy hunting everyone :-)

[Nights King]

Looking good still although slightly confused by mid day bbc weather I watched as it shows heavy snow sweeping through and going east? I thought it was going to stall over wales and the west or even pep up again into the evening?

[Schmalex]

Newbury's gonna get pasted. I can feel it in my bones! Woohoo, bring it on!!!!!!!

[Nights King]

Hopefully my garden will look like this again tomorrow

Can anyone guesstimate how much snow that is?

3/4 inches looking at the roof?