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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Are those based on the gfs? If so I'm not worried about those one bit, the model I'm paying the most attention to is the ukmo for me and not the gfs!

Yep and as good a chance as any at this (long) range.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Are those based on the gfs? If so I'm not worried about those one bit, the model I'm paying the most attention to is the ukmo for me and not the gfs!

And nope that's not because the ukmo is the best for our region, it's all to do with the fact that the ukmo had been the most stable model in the run upto this cold spell and during it, not showing wild swings which both the gfs and ecm has, so here's to a great 12z ukmo this afternoon tease.gif

And only having only two runs a day certainly helps.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Give me an old fashioned slider where the west country has snow all the way and no snow to rain event!

Certainly be nice to see heavy snow but too have that washed away by heavy rain afterwards is so depressing lol

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I was down Weymouth on 18th Feb 78 visiting family, The wind was bitterly cold coming off the sea blowing sand along Esplanade, On that evening rain started falling about 6,30 but changed to heavy snow, By midnight had changed back to rain, but the depth of snow along Weymouth seafront was phenomenal, But your point that cold was much more entrenched that year is true,

cerneman, was the wind direction from the East or Southeast on this occasion?

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Not by this , looks like you are in the best place with heavy snow .

I hope so but Metcheck and GF 'Precipitation Type' Charts show it just being sleet or rain though our counties then turning to snow thRough Somerset/Dorset/Gloucestershire and Wiltshire etc It originally was showing a potential 12 hours of snow for us in Devon and even a good few hours in Cornwall but going by the charts it's been downgraded which we've kind of gotten used to this winter...Any snow event that has been predicted to come our way has been downgraded, I'm hopeful for this Friday but the latest models aren't encouraging.

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Best we can hope for now is some decent leading edge snow, it needs to undercut better lets hope 12z run is a turn around.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

The only model I will trust is the one that delivers the snow IMBY.

Anyway, better move on now. shok.gif

I SIMPLY CANNOT WAIT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON'S MODEL SUITE AND THE SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS. yahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

The only model I will trust is the one that delivers the snow IMBY.

Anyway, better move on now. shok.gif

I SIMPLY CANNOT WAIT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON'S MODEL SUITE AND THE SUBSEQUENT ANALYSIS. yahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gif

Lets hope that the 12z runs show a backtrack to the 00z as that was better than 18z i thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Long way to go but meto regional has me down for light snow all friday and saturday with a max temp of -1c air_kiss.gif

Steady as she goes. search.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest

cerneman, was the wind direction from the East or Southeast on this occasion?

South East, Up at Bowleaze cove that evening and window rattling at Riviera[Pontins] Hotel
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Worth taking 10 mins of your valuable to read this:

http://www.netweathe...ryid=1348;sess=

Nice one Coast. good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather but especially warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Nr Castle Cary, South Somerset 38m/124.67ft asl

I can remember an event from my childhood but don't know the date. Can anyone remember the famous Ian Mccaskill forecast when he warned of that nine letter word and spelt out BLIZZARDS. I remember walking into the village centre from my house with my Mum and brother and the snow driving into our faces and making me cry. I lived in south Wilts at the time and it must have been somewhere between 79 and 83. Anyone know?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

South East, Up at Bowleaze cove that evening and window rattling at Riviera[Pontins] Hotel

OOOOeeeer, just as is suggested come Friday on some of the current output, as I understand. biggrin.png

Whoops, hush young man, what has gottolovethiweather gone and done now. doh.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Lol, the Met O warnings has really put a dampner in the Mod Thread, all gone very quiet.

Nervously awaiting the outcome of the 12z for IMBY and the rest of our region! Good luck gals and guys, ill be watching from behind the sofa, especially for the UKMO and ECM!!

4.2 in Ferndown, DP -2C, sun out all day may I add!,

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

i keep wondering if there is any possibility of a little surprise before the *possible* friday event....it sometimes happens in these situations. The met office forecast for tonight mentions the possibilities of showers along "other channel coasts" tonight...i guess you never know? actually, i probably do know....

The other thing i keep wondering about is if Reham Khan would have come on in the evening during the 62/63 winter and continually placed a sleet symbol along the coast and joyfully announced "most likely rain along the coastal strip".

Imagine if "the day after tomorrow" had been set in Bournemouth? i'm not sure the film would have had quite the impact - a couple of days of heavy, cold rain and Ian Holm having to treck north of Winchester to see any lying snow....

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)

I was down Weymouth on 18th Feb 78 visiting family, The wind was bitterly cold coming off the sea blowing sand along Esplanade, On that evening rain started falling about 6,30 but changed to heavy snow, By midnight had changed back to rain, but the depth of snow along Weymouth seafront was phenomenal, But your point that cold was much more entrenched that year is true,

Looking at the archive charts it looks more marginal back then, with the 0C isotherm into the SW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00219780218.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Cryptic Ian :) Looking forward to your forecasts over the next few days!

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Ian you tease...

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

One last reason as to why you can largely ignore specific charts on their own right.

From the netweather guide on the GEFS ensembles.

  • Many leading agencies now believe that ensemble forecasting is the way forward for
    anything beyond 5 days – and sometimes even shorter.

Amusingly the guides also quote the following.

  • It goes to show, that even at relatively short range, the nature of the weather, particularly
    in a location like the British Isles and North Atlantic, nothing is that certain.

And finally

  • In conclusion, the ensembles are a fantastic forecasting tool – whereas the GFS alone can
    give great results and accurate forecasts at pretty long range, by using the ensembles
    alongside it, you can get a far more rounded outlook and see the probability of a forecast
    coming off. As well as this it can aid at shorter range when looking to nail down the finer
    details of a particular days weather.

It is currently all we have access to and I would love to have the chance of analysing ECM ensembles as another option, but I can but dream.

EDIT: by the way, you could also subsitute the words GFS with ECM, UKMO, GEM, BOM, JMA or whatever you like. The GFS is just run twice move often than the others and is therefore open to misinterpretation.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset

Looking at the archive charts it looks more marginal back then, with the 0C isotherm into the SW

http://www.wetterzen...00219780218.gif

Yes as a youngster then I remember my parents being caught out the heavy snowfall. I don't recall it being a well forecast event but I could be wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest

i keep wondering if there is any possibility of a little surprise before the *possible* friday event....it sometimes happens in these situations. The met office forecast for tonight mentions the possibilities of showers along "other channel coasts" tonight...i guess you never know? actually, i probably do know....

The other thing i keep wondering about is if Reham Khan would have come on in the evening during the 62/63 winter and continually placed a sleet symbol along the coast and joyfully announced "most likely rain along the coastal strip".

Imagine if "the day after tomorrow" had been set in Bournemouth? i'm not sure the film would have had quite the impact - a couple of days of heavy, cold rain and Ian Holm having to treck north of Winchester to see any lying snow....

Isle wight, Portland Bill and Start Point mentioned in forecast, might get few showers
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Cryptic Ian smile.png Looking forward to your forecasts over the next few days!

I really hope just this once the west country can get its traditional stalling front that doesn't introduce rain after an hour or two. good.gif Its been years waiting....

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK

Wouldn't be a damper if I could share 4-5d modified UKMO-GM output & MOGREPS with them.. ! ;-)

Oh, you tease!!!! air_kiss.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

So Its a nice sunnyday at 5 ºc.rofl.gifrofl.gif

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