Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Undercut clear on the high res GFS, all such fine margins for some, 6z more like the euros with a slight eastward shift of the main band.

Thank god for the regional threads as its very hard to post unbiased thoughts in the general thread as everyone is (rightly so) concentrating on there back yard!!!

For us SSIB we seem to be in a pretty decent position!!! Kind of in the middle, slight shifts east or west should still keep us under the snow, often the way in these situations that the Cotswolds end up doing quite well.

Yes I agree it's difficult to see what may be someone's upgrades is another persons downgrade. All all yes I think this will be very very interesting, with more snow coming in on Sunday?!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS is only model with any snow potential for Eire, but it's not being backed up by any other models right now! Oh well, I think this will very much be a Feb 2012 situ all over again with Ireland missing out on any significant cold! Met Eireann no longer even mentioning sleet in their forecast. NI may see something, but I think right now the atlantic has too much of an influence over our small island and after months of model watching with any potential always getting pushed further and further out into FI, I'm calling it a day for this winter! Mind you I'm happy for all our UK friends and the posters on here who'll hopefully finally get some proper snow this weekend! No sour grapes on my behalf!

SandraD77

You probably will miss out on this occasion BUT I suspect that your time will come soon enough. I think the ECM/GEM/UKMO are more on the money down the line and I think we are on just beginning the winter fun.

Yes acherry picked chart here but for a reason. I have a rapidly developing GHP to build for last third of the month after our game changer period and to extend its influence SE. This chart sums up the general idea nicely.

BFTP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not wanting to, in any way, come across as ramping...But the 06Z appears to have the word STONKER written all over it???

Sadly for most I know in Stafford change the O to an I, but of course I agree with you

[Cloud 10]

The Atlantic is shaking its fist but the cold block just puts two fingers up at it!

[swfc]

o6z run looks great to me and its not a imby post.out to 108 hrs and things look pretty good with the orientation of the low moving in

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not wanting to, in any way, come across as ramping...But the 06Z appears to have the word STONKER written all over it???

Indeed Pete, angle of attack/slider much better, block to NE linking to Greenland stronger, up to t120...MUCH BETTER

BFTP

[V for Very Cold]

Not wanting to, in any way, come across as ramping...But the 06Z appears to have the word STONKER written all over it???

well it comes to something when the mods are having trouble controlling their rampiness

[Ali1977]

I wonder if this snow could be one of the biggest snow events this century in SW...looks that way with possivly 40 hours of snow looking at GFS charts

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I can see heights backing into greenland , think fi we will really see a major outbreak of cold. I mean a real northeasterly attack.

[Alexis]

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

This is what is key - the 850's plummet within a few hours as the feed pivots.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alexis

[nick sussex]

OMG this is so exciting and I'm not even in the UK!

Really great to see this trend and hopefully as many people as possible can share in the snow fun!

Upstream there are still big differences between the GFS and the ECM/UKMO but what would be interesting is to see even with that if the GFS can still find a colder solution in the more medium term.

[patrickshere]

As usual, 06z exhibiting it's "let's push everything slightly further East" bias of late. So this is the "worst that can happen" scenario.

Surprising, because for your area the 06z is actually better than the 00z.

I'd take the 06z's Friday over the 00z's any day. The 00z is mainly an event for the south west. The 06z gives the whole country a chance.

If it's snow that you want, we need some progression and for the fronts to come over. Everything (as it stands) would fall as snow. If you wish for things to go back West you end up losing all the precipitation, and at least for me - I'm looking for snow in the charts, not just cold. We get periods of sustained cold every other year.

Edited January 16, 2013 by mituozo

[Methuselah]

well it comes to something when the mods are having trouble controlling their rampiness

Indeed it does, VC...This chart, should it materialize, also has something to offer: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20130116;time=06;ext=123;file=h850t850eu;sess=e3e32137adeeee2a326e4a0402acdae2;

[john mac]

I wonder if this snow could be one of the biggest snow events this century in SW...looks that way with possivly 40 hours of snow looking at GFS charts

I Know its crazy. you might even end up a snow island

OMG this is so exciting and I'm not even in the UK!

Really great to see this trend and hopefully as many people as possible can share in the snow fun!

Upstream there are still big differences between the GFS and the ECM/UKMO but what would be interesting is to see even with that if the GFS can still find a colder solution in the more medium term.

Quick nick jump on a plane!!!, mind you the rate its going you will probably get some intense cold as the month goes on!

[alijoe]

OMG this is so exciting and I'm not even in the UK!

Really great to see this trend and hopefully as many people as possible can share in the snow fun!

Upstream there are still big differences between the GFS and the ECM/UKMO but what would be interesting is to see even with that if the GFS can still find a colder solution in the more medium term.

[Yarmy]

Without wishing to anti-ramp, are we not always advised to bin the GFS 06z?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Deep cold fi coming I think

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run is certainly much better than the earlier 00hrs run as it separates the upstream energy just in time.

My TAP (Thaw Avoidance Plan) rating jumps to 6/10 after all the morning model outputs.

[swfc]

big upgrade within the reliable timeframe from the 06z.fi for me is around the 120 hour mark at the moment

[Jason M]

Without wishing to anti-ramp, are we not always advised to bin the GFS 06z?

Yes, but its not good advice IMO :-)

06Z can be miles off, but its wrong to just ignore it. Also, given that were looking at days 2,3&4 I dont think we can ignore any output at this stage.

Fergie also mentioned recently that METO also take some note of GFS 06Z along with everything else.

Jason

[Methuselah]

Without wishing to anti-ramp, are we not always advised to bin the GFS 06z?

Hence NW's world-famous slogan: You Don't Have To Bin It To Win It!

It's sure good to see everyone in such good humour, today...

Edited January 16, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[UV-RAY]

Hence NW's world-famous slogan: It'sYou Don't Have To Bin It To Win It!

It's sure good to see everyone in such good humour, today...

Just wait until the downgrades appear.

Off course for those not use to my jackboot humour, that's a joke!

[TEITS]

Little point looking at the rest of this run.

At +144 a massive difference with regards to that LP near Greenland compared to the UKMO/ECM which hold it much further W.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

So I shall accept the part of the 06Z run that gives me what I want and ignore the rest.

[swfc]

way out in fi but it alludes to the points made earlier by teits and gp.pv is shattered

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looks I was wrong again about deep cold , the gfs is hinting at big outbreak from the northeast , didn't get there though when I thought it would, but in the mid term it's prolonging our cold again, so originally we was going to see a break down this Friday about 3 days ago, now it's way into la la land , this potentially could be absolutely Hugh , the snow and then the cold and longevity of it, watch this space.