Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[lorenzo]

The block winning this battle in spectacular style from this mornings output, everything remains West of the UK, Ireland in the firing line for main plastering from the front. As the model thread will be in TOORP mode and possibly several pages further on, here is a postfrom Matt that explains the ongoing development.

Friday evening onwards sees East Coast achieving some activity from slack Easterly flow.

Back to chasing the trigger low and Easterly then !

Out at 120 hrs, which seems a lifetime away in the current realms of where is FI we have this slider, UKMO and ECM consistent, GFS slowly coming round to the idea, but wants some extra shortwave excitement first.

ECM/UKMO/GEM

GFS

Another interesting day of model watching beckons..

Edited January 17, 2013 by lorenzo

[Kayemill]

Weather warning for snow has arrived.!!!

A bit strange since everything points to it being wrong.

No frost and not even feeling cold this Morning. Just can't see it happening.

[sn0wman]

Ughhhh, frontal snow downgraded again. Feels like chasing rainbows at the moment.

[jellybaby1969]

Maybe ok for southern and western extremes of D and G along with Kintyre...non event elsewhere !!

[GraemeB]

At any other time, we'd be clambering over oursevles to stop the Atlantic from barrelling into us, now though, we actually want it to make inroads and cross the country before getting pushed back.

Damn you Mr Block.

[jellybaby1969]

At any other time, we'd be clambering over oursevles to stop the Atlantic from barrelling into us, now though, we actually want it to make inroads and cross the country before getting pushed back.

Damn you Mr Block.

I would bet my last pound if the front was bringing copious rainfall then it make it here no problem.... Ayrshire snawshield up and running as normal.

Edited January 17, 2013 by jellybaby1969

[Blizzardo]

There may be an element of short term for long term gain here, however, there is no point in disguising the fact that this could turn out to be a huge let down for some places.

[GraemeB]

There may be an element of short term for long term gain here, however, there is no point in disguising the fact that this will turn out to be a huge let down for some places.

FTFY

[Blizzardo]

FTFY

I always live in hope lol.

[jellybaby1969]

There may be an element of short term for long term gain here, however, there is no point in disguising the fact that this could turn out to be a huge let down for some places.

Long term gain for the East maybe..... not for the west.

[sn0wman]

There may be an element of short term for long term gain here, however, there is no point in disguising the fact that this could turn out to be a huge let down for some places.

I know, but how many times have we said that over the past week?

[GraemeB]

I'm ready...

[November13]

I know, but how many times have we said that over the past week?

So now according to BBC Scotland is getting hee haw. Yet 12 hours ago it was snowmageddon. I am giving up with forecasts absolutely hopeless. I will just watch the Radar tonight and see how far the snow gets.

[Hawesy]

So the main snow band is off the menu for most Scots it would seem...

On the upside some hope for east-central areas with convection off the north sea, though not along the immediate coast - I'm pretty sure that -8c/-9c 850s plus a 20mph SEly wind off the relatively warm North Sea would bring a wintry mix and +2/+3c to the coastal strip (IMO). Areas inland/with a little altitude should do well though.

[101_North]

Not overly excited by no frontal snow and a potentially 'slack' easterly. How inland would that bring showers?

Not so much as a frost overnight either - currently +1c. In terms of disappointment this spell is currently right up there!

Oh and for a forum newbie what is TOORP?

Edited January 17, 2013 by 101_North

[lorenzo]

See Graeme post above for Toorp, it's something a bairn does with his toys to remove them from his transport device when everything goes Titus Verticus !

AA have updated their warnings map on Twitter. Seems everyone has paint these days, Scotland completely clear.

[101_North]

Toys out of ?? pram - what's the R ? :-(

Edited January 17, 2013 by 101_North

[edo]

A bit strange since everything points to it being wrong.

No frost and not even feeling cold this Morning. Just can't see it happening.

Confusion caused by the post being relative to narthern arrrland

For Easties looking good Sat night but all subject to change and now casting as to how potent convection is

The sadist in me looking forward to entering the madhouse....the cold block must be extremely powerful now

[GraemeB]

Just out of curiosity - current temps in Belfast are around +3-5c...I'd imagine the dewpoint was postiive as well - how does this transform the Atlantic front into snow ?

I'd have thought it was more likely to be rain, or sleet at best..

TOORP ( © GraemeB ) = Toys Oot O Ra Pram

[lorenzo]

A Burger walks into the Bar.

Barman Says - Why the long face?

Waitress at Tesco - What would you like on your Burger ?

Customer - A Fiver each way please..

Obligatory chart, GFS version of 850hpa temps.

[101_North]

Radio Scotland mentioned Scotland mostly missing the snow on Friday but highlighted the risk in the East for heavy snow showers over the weekend.

[blitzen]

You know, I can't remember the correct title now but I do know that the Scottish description is ' Toys Oot o' ra Pram!' so that should give you a clue! There is a more positive thread which is referred to as SACRA which translated means: Snow and Cold Rampers Association!' which, I have to say, has not been used for some time now! Very funny thread when it gets going tho.

When I logged on this morning, there were 1,246 members online and I can only guess that most were in complete shock as there had been no posts for over 10mins! It is understandable tho' as most were expecting snowmaggedon! We may be a bit more fortunate up here tho' as at least we have the possibility of some convection later on. We are slowly coming into the 'nowcast' domain I think as the models are clearly struggling with the finer details in the short term.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Blitzen

[Snowangel-MK]

New thread coming!

Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

here you go....

locking this up now !

Edited January 17, 2013 by MKsnowangel