South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[Iceberg]

Posted my quick comment whilst on the bus coming into work.

Must admit the Mod Disc Thread views are a bit misleading from a couple of posters in there this morning - v confusing with no access to charts!

I'll take your views over the posters in there this morning! That'll teach me for posting early in the morning.

N probs they forget we exist in the mod thread...

[AWD]

One thing that bothers me about Friday now and is putting doubt into my mind is the fact the 528DAM never makes it across the South West. In fact, we end up nearer the 546DAM. The UKMO has the 528DAM over Hampshire midnight Friday;

The GFS has it over nowhere;

I think this is going to be needed a look in much further detail nearer the time.

[karlos1983]

One thing that bothers me about Friday now and is putting doubt into my mind is the fact the 528DAM never makes it across the South West. In fact, we end up nearer the 546DAM. The UKMO has the 528DAM over Hampshire midnight Friday;

The GFS has it over nowhere;

I think this is going to be needed a look in much further detail nearer the time.

Visible on the FAX too,

[microclimate]

Woken up to a dusting here, looks like the flakes were quite large when it fell.

[liam300]

One thing that bothers me about Friday now and is putting doubt into my mind is the fact the 528DAM never makes it across the South West. In fact, we end up nearer the 546DAM. The UKMO has the 528DAM over Hampshire midnight Friday;

The GFS has it over nowhere;

I think this is going to be needed a look in much further detail nearer the time.

What's the importance of a dam line?

[liam300]

Yes the trend does seem to be hinting at a midlands north snow event for Friday now. But things will likely chop and change.

Think it's mainly because the 850hp are not cold enough from midlands southwards?

[Iceberg]

The -5 850 line though is over Cornwall at the same time, which is what you would expect for the first 1500-2000m of atmosphere the cold is firmly entrenched.

[AWD]

The -5 850 line though is over Cornwall at the same time, which is what you would expect for the first 1500-2000m of atmosphere the cold is firmly entrenched.

But the 850hpa temperatures have been fine for the last couple of days. Basing it on 850's alone, we would of seen yesterday's rain as snow. It's because of the thickness' and WBFL that we didn't.

We haven't a chart for the WBFL for Friday, but the thickness' again aren't as good as I would like. I maybe reading too much into it, and it may be irrelevant, but I think this need a much further look into it than just 850hpa temps.

Be interesting to see when it comes into NAE & NMM.

I will add that the Dewpoint does look good though.

Edited January 15, 2013 by AWD

[Davey80]

How's it looking for north Hampshire anyone?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The -5 850 line though is over Cornwall at the same time, which is what you would expect for the first 1500-2000m of atmosphere the cold is firmly entrenched.

Agreed, the cold is well and truly entrenched , think it would be snow for many, would be better if we had a more southeasterly element to it , we need the, due points as low as we can .

As for the model thread , it's quite frustrating in there , don't look at trends , they comment on particular charts t144rs away and completely missing the fact that a Hugh snow event is on its way for some .

[katemart]

Morning all

Quite amazing to see the Isle of Man Streamer still rattling along this morning. Shame it didnt come round more SErly but I am chalking it up... Think we are owed a little something by now, Mother Nature!

1.1C, DP -2.5C. Temp has been falling slowly but steadily since yesterday afternoon. Looking forward to a day or two of cold, crisp weather before the main event.

[karlos1983]

Agreed, the cold is well and truly entrenched , think it would be snow for many, would be better if we had a more southeasterly element to it , we need the, due points as low as we can .

As for the model thread , it's quite frustrating in there , don't look at trends , they comment on particular charts t144rs away and completely missing the fact that a Hugh snow event is on its way for some .

I've retired to the Regionals for the past few days, and I'm finding it a much better experience, sanity wise if anything.

Although I do go back in after each run and read through each and every post, people like Nick Sussex, Lorenzo, Chio etc's input has been invaluable to me in terms of learning and understanding the models.

Always enjoy your posts SSIB and AWD as well.

Here's to a good 06z and a further push towards the UKMO hopefully from the GFS!

Edited January 15, 2013 by karlos1983

[Frosty_wsm]

I wouldn't take any chart at face value right now, for Friday and the weekend, as Nick S said in the mod thread and backed it up charts, over the past few days there's been a shift south and west of the pattern for this weekend and I've no doubt that will continue to happen, which is all good news for us down here.

[Beast of Plympton]

Had a good dustng of snow here last night, still here now!

Agreed on the MOD thread. I do like to read it sometimes because it is informative sometimes. however I think there is a "if its not coming to the east it doesn't matter, probably won't happen and who cares if it does happen" attitude.

Glad we have some great knowledge on this forum so they can let us know whats going on!!

Edited January 15, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[AWD]

Met Office suggesting a very cold week to come, lasting into Saturday with light snow on Friday.

No doubt this is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, but as this stand, it looks like they're favouring Fridays front to slide SE and the cold to remain into the weekend.

As shown here too;

Edited January 15, 2013 by AWD

[Gibby]

Well after studying all the models here is my best stab at what it all means for the SW over the next week or so. It looks like a period of cold and dry weather is likely between now and Friday with frosty nights and bright, crisp days. Cornwall and West Devon are at risk of showers today and more cloud generally over the next few days as a front pushes up close by though I feel precipitation should hold off shore for most of the time.

On Friday a cold and raw SE wind will of developed and with cloud advancing NE rain and sleet will reach Cornwall through the day. As it spreads NE into colder air and with low dew points the rain will probably turn readily to snow giving a good covering in places, especially over Exmoor, the Mendip hills, Cotswolds and Salisbury Plain. The tricky part is when and if the milder air associated with the front bringing the precipitation turns it back to rain. I think it will at some point over the weekend and lead us into another very wet spell and potential renewed risk of flooding next week as the axis of Low pressure is steered right into the SW. It doesn't however look like excluding the risk of cold air returning from the North at times next week but with the cold so modified by then I would think cold rain would be the most likely outcome.

[Coast]

No doubt this is subject to a high degree of uncertainty

We are possibly in one of the greatest times for uncertainty, regarding modelling versus forecasts for many years, hence why there are so many different outcomes possible currently even at T+24 hours.

[karlos1983]

Met Office suggesting a very cold week to come, lasting into Saturday with light snow on Friday.

No doubt this is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, but as this stand, it looks like they're favouring Fridays front to slide SE and the cold to remain into the weekend.

As shown here too;

Nice tilt on that front!

[Bumpkin]

I use to visit the mod thread every day, all year round but I can't cope with it at the moment and generally just get updates in here and look at the charts myself. There are far too many 'experts' that muddy the waters and just confuse matters in the mod thread and you have to wade through pages and pages to find the views of the people that do know what they are talking about. Thanks to AWD, Gibby, Ian, Iceberg etc for their updates and thoughts.

[Dorsetbred]

Suggestion of snow on top of the Purbecks this morning after last nights rain (in the town)

[DanDorsetUK]

Hi everyone not had a chance to look at charts as im working but im hearing we could get a snow event in the south west can someone pls give me an idea how far east this could hit im in bournemouth area and my wife will be working out in blandford just a lil worried about her getting home during friday anybody know the latest what time it may hit? thanks

[AWD]

Notice the EC Det has a massive warm sector on Friday. If this verified, there would be little snow for us.

Thankfully, the FAX charts aren't going that way yet.

It goes to show how knife edge it is on Friday though. Details will chop and change as they have done this morning. Going to be an interesting few days for sure.

[Bristawl Si]

Latest fax at T84 (Friday 12.00) shows the front out in the atlantic (sorry can't post it) - so maybe not much inroads anyway for Friday.

[DanDorsetUK]

Cheers just looked at meto temp looks to warm for bournemouth area friday anyway. mind you its got colder today just this sec droped to 1oc have to keep close eye on this situation may need to make some big changes regarding work. not good!

[Beast of Plympton]

Latest fax at T84 (Friday 12.00) shows the front out in the atlantic (sorry can't post it) - so maybe not much inroads anyway for Friday.

Do you see a donwgrade coming?